Order statistics arising from $m$ independent but not identically distributed random variables are typically constructed by arranging some $X_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots, X_{m}$, with $X_{i}$ having distribution function $F_{i}(x)$, in increasing order denoted as $X_{(1)} \leq X_{(2)} \leq \ldots \leq X_{(m)}$. In this case, $X_{(i)}$ is not necessarily associated with $F_{i}(x)$. Assuming one can simulate values from each distribution, one can generate such "non-iid" order statistics by simulating $X_{i}$ from $F_{i}$, for $i=1,2,\ldots, m$, and arranging them in order. In this paper, we consider the problem of simulating ordered values $X_{(1)}, X_{(2)}, \ldots, X_{(m)}$ such that the marginal distribution of $X_{(i)}$ is $F_{i}(x)$. This problem arises in Bayesian principal components analysis (BPCA) where the $X_{i}$ are ordered eigenvalues that are a posteriori independent but not identically distributed. We propose a novel coupling-from-the-past algorithm to "perfectly" (up to computable order of accuracy) simulate such {\emph{order-constrained non-iid}} order statistics. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach for several examples, including the BPCA problem.
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We introduce weak barycenters of a family of probability distributions, based on the recently developed notion of optimal weak transport of mass by Gozlanet al. (2017) and Backhoff-Veraguas et al. (2020). We provide a theoretical analysis of this object and discuss its interpretation in the light of convex ordering between probability measures. In particular, we show that, rather than averaging the input distributions in a geometric way (as the Wasserstein barycenter based on classic optimal transport does) weak barycenters extract common geometric information shared by all the input distributions, encoded as a latent random variable that underlies all of them. We also provide an iterative algorithm to compute a weak barycenter for a finite family of input distributions, and a stochastic algorithm that computes them for arbitrary populations of laws. The latter approach is particularly well suited for the streaming setting, i.e., when distributions are observed sequentially. The notion of weak barycenter and our approaches to compute it are illustrated on synthetic examples, validated on 2D real-world data and compared to standard Wasserstein barycenters.
In this paper, we propose a new trace finite element method for the {Laplace-Beltrami} eigenvalue problem. The method is proposed directly on a smooth manifold which is implicitly given by a level-set function and require high order numerical quadrature on the surface. A comprehensive analysis for the method is provided. We show that the eigenvalues of the discrete Laplace-Beltrami operator coincide with only part of the eigenvalues of an embedded problem, which further corresponds to the finite eigenvalues for a singular generalized algebraic eigenvalue problem. The finite eigenvalues can be efficiently solved by a rank-completing perturbation algorithm in {\it Hochstenbach et al. SIAM J. Matrix Anal. Appl., 2019} \cite{hochstenbach2019solving}. We prove the method has optimal convergence rate. Numerical experiments verify the theoretical analysis and show that the geometric consistency can improve the numerical accuracy significantly.
We investigate a machine learning approach to option Greeks approximation based on Gaussian process (GP) surrogates. The method takes in noisily observed option prices, fits a nonparametric input-output map and then analytically differentiates the latter to obtain the various price sensitivities. Our motivation is to compute Greeks in cases where direct computation is expensive, such as in local volatility models, or can only ever be done approximately. We provide a detailed analysis of numerous aspects of GP surrogates, including choice of kernel family, simulation design, choice of trend function and impact of noise. We further discuss the application to Delta hedging, including a new Lemma that relates quality of the Delta approximation to discrete-time hedging loss. Results are illustrated with two extensive case studies that consider estimation of Delta, Theta and Gamma and benchmark approximation quality and uncertainty quantification using a variety of statistical metrics. Among our key take-aways are the recommendation to use Matern kernels, the benefit of including virtual training points to capture boundary conditions, and the significant loss of fidelity when training on stock-path-based datasets.
Efficient contact tracing and isolation is an effective strategy to control epidemics. It was used effectively during the Ebola epidemic and successfully implemented in several parts of the world during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. An important consideration in contact tracing is the budget on the number of individuals asked to quarantine -- the budget is limited for socioeconomic reasons. In this paper, we present a Markov Decision Process (MDP) framework to formulate the problem of using contact tracing to reduce the size of an outbreak while asking a limited number of people to quarantine. We formulate each step of the MDP as a combinatorial problem, MinExposed, which we demonstrate is NP-Hard; as a result, we develop an LP-based approximation algorithm. Though this algorithm directly solves MinExposed, it is often impractical in the real world due to information constraints. To this end, we develop a greedy approach based on insights from the analysis of the previous algorithm, which we show is more interpretable. A key feature of the greedy algorithm is that it does not need complete information of the underlying social contact network. This makes the heuristic implementable in practice and is an important consideration. Finally, we carry out experiments on simulations of the MDP run on real-world networks, and show how the algorithms can help in bending the epidemic curve while limiting the number of isolated individuals. Our experimental results demonstrate that the greedy algorithm and its variants are especially effective, robust, and practical in a variety of realistic scenarios, such as when the contact graph and specific transmission probabilities are not known. All code can be found in our GitHub repository: //github.com/gzli929/ContactTracing.
We construct a space-time parallel method for solving parabolic partial differential equations by coupling the Parareal algorithm in time with overlapping domain decomposition in space. The goal is to obtain a discretization consisting of "local" problems that can be solved on parallel computers efficiently. However, this introduces significant sources of error that must be evaluated. Reformulating the original Parareal algorithm as a variational method and implementing a finite element discretization in space enables an adjoint-based a posteriori error analysis to be performed. Through an appropriate choice of adjoint problems and residuals the error analysis distinguishes between errors arising due to the temporal and spatial discretizations, as well as between the errors arising due to incomplete Parareal iterations and incomplete iterations of the domain decomposition solver. We first develop an error analysis for the Parareal method applied to parabolic partial differential equations, and then refine this analysis to the case where the associated spatial problems are solved using overlapping domain decomposition. These constitute our Time Parallel Algorithm (TPA) and Space-Time Parallel Algorithm (STPA) respectively. Numerical experiments demonstrate the accuracy of the estimator for both algorithms and the iterations between distinct components of the error.
Multi-fidelity modeling and calibration are data fusion tasks that ubiquitously arise in engineering design. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach based on latent-map Gaussian processes (LMGPs) that enables efficient and accurate data fusion. In our approach, we convert data fusion into a latent space learning problem where the relations among different data sources are automatically learned. This conversion endows our approach with attractive advantages such as increased accuracy, reduced costs, flexibility to jointly fuse any number of data sources, and ability to visualize correlations between data sources. This visualization allows the user to detect model form errors or determine the optimum strategy for high-fidelity emulation by fitting LMGP only to the subset of the data sources that are well-correlated. We also develop a new kernel function that enables LMGPs to not only build a probabilistic multi-fidelity surrogate but also estimate calibration parameters with high accuracy and consistency. The implementation and use of our approach are considerably simpler and less prone to numerical issues compared to existing technologies. We demonstrate the benefits of LMGP-based data fusion by comparing its performance against competing methods on a wide range of examples.
Makespan minimization on parallel identical machines is a classical and intensively studied problem in scheduling, and a classic example for online algorithm analysis with Graham's famous list scheduling algorithm dating back to the 1960s. In this problem, jobs arrive over a list and upon an arrival, the algorithm needs to assign the job to a machine. The goal is to minimize the makespan, that is, the maximum machine load. In this paper, we consider the variant with an additional cardinality constraint: The algorithm may assign at most $k$ jobs to each machine where $k$ is part of the input. While the offline (strongly NP-hard) variant of cardinality constrained scheduling is well understood and an EPTAS exists here, no non-trivial results are known for the online variant. We fill this gap by making a comprehensive study of various different online models. First, we show that there is a constant competitive algorithm for the problem and further, present a lower bound of $2$ on the competitive ratio of any online algorithm. Motivated by the lower bound, we consider a semi-online variant where upon arrival of a job of size $p$, we are allowed to migrate jobs of total size at most a constant times $p$. This constant is called the migration factor of the algorithm. Algorithms with small migration factors are a common approach to bridge the performance of online algorithms and offline algorithms. One can obtain algorithms with a constant migration factor by rounding the size of each incoming job and then applying an ordinal algorithm to the resulting rounded instance. With this in mind, we also consider the framework of ordinal algorithms and characterize the competitive ratio that can be achieved using the aforementioned approaches.
Herding is a technique to sequentially generate deterministic samples from a probability distribution. In this work, we propose a continuous herded Gibbs sampler that combines kernel herding on continuous densities with the Gibbs sampling idea. Our algorithm allows for deterministically sampling from high-dimensional multivariate probability densities, without directly sampling from the joint density. Experiments with Gaussian mixture densities indicate that the L2 error decreases similarly to kernel herding, while the computation time is significantly lower, i.e., linear in the number of dimensions.
This paper is concerned with the asymptotic distribution of the largest eigenvalues for some nonlinear random matrix ensemble stemming from the study of neural networks. More precisely we consider $M= \frac{1}{m} YY^\top$ with $Y=f(WX)$ where $W$ and $X$ are random rectangular matrices with i.i.d. centered entries. This models the data covariance matrix or the Conjugate Kernel of a single layered random Feed-Forward Neural Network. The function $f$ is applied entrywise and can be seen as the activation function of the neural network. We show that the largest eigenvalue has the same limit (in probability) as that of some well-known linear random matrix ensembles. In particular, we relate the asymptotic limit of the largest eigenvalue for the nonlinear model to that of an information-plus-noise random matrix, establishing a possible phase transition depending on the function $f$ and the distribution of $W$ and $X$. This may be of interest for applications to machine learning.
We develop an approach to risk minimization and stochastic optimization that provides a convex surrogate for variance, allowing near-optimal and computationally efficient trading between approximation and estimation error. Our approach builds off of techniques for distributionally robust optimization and Owen's empirical likelihood, and we provide a number of finite-sample and asymptotic results characterizing the theoretical performance of the estimator. In particular, we show that our procedure comes with certificates of optimality, achieving (in some scenarios) faster rates of convergence than empirical risk minimization by virtue of automatically balancing bias and variance. We give corroborating empirical evidence showing that in practice, the estimator indeed trades between variance and absolute performance on a training sample, improving out-of-sample (test) performance over standard empirical risk minimization for a number of classification problems.
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