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Bayesian Optimization (BO) is used to find the global optima of black box functions. In this work, we propose a practical BO method of function compositions where the form of the composition is known but the constituent functions are expensive to evaluate. By assuming an independent Gaussian process (GP) model for each of the constituent black-box function, we propose Expected Improvement (EI) and Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) based BO algorithms and demonstrate their ability to outperform not just vanilla BO but also the current state-of-art algorithms. We demonstrate a novel application of the proposed methods to dynamic pricing in revenue management when the underlying demand function is expensive to evaluate.

We are concerned with the arithmetic of solutions to ordinary or partial nonlinear differential equations which are algebraic in the indeterminates and their derivatives. We call these solutions D-algebraic functions, and their equations are algebraic (ordinary or partial) differential equations (ADEs). The general purpose is to find ADEs whose solutions are specified rational expressions of solutions to given ADEs. For univariate D-algebraic functions, we show how to derive an ADE whose order is bounded by the sum of the orders of the given algebraic ODEs. In the multivariate case, we prove that this cannot be done with algebraic PDEs, and introduce a general algorithm for these computations. Using our accompanying Maple software, we discuss applications in physics, statistics, and symbolic integration.

Motivated by a recent literature on the double-descent phenomenon in machine learning, we consider highly over-parametrized models in causal inference, including synthetic control with many control units. In such models, there may be so many free parameters that the model fits the training data perfectly. As a motivating example, we first investigate high-dimensional linear regression for imputing wage data, where we find that models with many more covariates than sample size can outperform simple ones. As our main contribution, we document the performance of high-dimensional synthetic control estimators with many control units. We find that adding control units can help improve imputation performance even beyond the point where the pre-treatment fit is perfect. We then provide a unified theoretical perspective on the performance of these high-dimensional models. Specifically, we show that more complex models can be interpreted as model-averaging estimators over simpler ones, which we link to an improvement in average performance. This perspective yields concrete insights into the use of synthetic control when control units are many relative to the number of pre-treatment periods.

We consider finite state restless multi-armed bandit problem. The decision maker can act on M bandits out of N bandits in each time step. The play of arm (active arm) yields state dependent rewards based on action and when the arm is not played, it also provides rewards based on the state and action. The objective of the decision maker is to maximize the infinite horizon discounted reward. The classical approach to restless bandits is Whittle index policy. In such policy, the M arms with highest indices are played at each time step. Here, one decouples the restless bandits problem by analyzing relaxed constrained restless bandits problem. Then by Lagrangian relaxation problem, one decouples restless bandits problem into N single-armed restless bandit problems. We analyze the single-armed restless bandit. In order to study the Whittle index policy, we show structural results on the single armed bandit model. We define indexability and show indexability in special cases. We propose an alternative approach to verify the indexable criteria for a single armed bandit model using value iteration algorithm. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithm with different examples. We provide insight on condition of indexability of restless bandits using different structural assumptions on transition probability and reward matrices. We also study online rollout policy and discuss the computation complexity of algorithm and compare that with complexity of index computation. Numerical examples illustrate that index policy and rollout policy performs better than myopic policy.

Theoretical studies on transfer learning or domain adaptation have so far focused on situations with a known hypothesis class or model; however in practice, some amount of model selection is usually involved, often appearing under the umbrella term of hyperparameter-tuning: for example, one may think of the problem of tuning for the right neural network architecture towards a target task, while leveraging data from a related source task. Now, in addition to the usual tradeoffs on approximation vs estimation errors involved in model selection, this problem brings in a new complexity term, namely, the transfer distance between source and target distributions, which is known to vary with the choice of hypothesis class. We present a first study of this problem, focusing on classification; in particular, the analysis reveals some remarkable phenomena: adaptive rates, i.e., those achievable with no distributional information, can be arbitrarily slower than oracle rates, i.e., when given knowledge on distances.

We study three models of the problem of adversarial training in multiclass classification designed to construct robust classifiers against adversarial perturbations of data in the agnostic-classifier setting. We prove the existence of Borel measurable robust classifiers in each model and provide a unified perspective of the adversarial training problem, expanding the connections with optimal transport initiated by the authors in previous work and developing new connections between adversarial training in the multiclass setting and total variation regularization. As a corollary of our results, we prove the existence of Borel measurable solutions to the agnostic adversarial training problem in the binary classification setting, a result that improves results in the literature of adversarial training, where robust classifiers were only known to exist within the enlarged universal $\sigma$-algebra of the feature space.

Assessing causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding is a challenging problem. Although auxiliary variables, such as instrumental variables, are commonly used to identify causal effects, they are often unavailable in practice due to stringent and untestable conditions. To address this issue, previous researches have utilized linear structural equation models to show that the causal effect can be identifiable when noise variables of the treatment and outcome are both non-Gaussian. In this paper, we investigate the problem of identifying the causal effect using auxiliary covariates and non-Gaussianity from the treatment. Our key idea is to characterize the impact of unmeasured confounders using an observed covariate, assuming they are all Gaussian. The auxiliary covariate can be an invalid instrument or an invalid proxy variable. We demonstrate that the causal effect can be identified using this measured covariate, even when the only source of non-Gaussianity comes from the treatment. We then extend the identification results to the multi-treatment setting and provide sufficient conditions for identification. Based on our identification results, we propose a simple and efficient procedure for calculating causal effects and show the $\sqrt{n}$-consistency of the proposed estimator. Finally, we evaluate the performance of our estimator through simulation studies and an application.

Providing guarantees on the safe operation of robots against edge cases is challenging as testing methods such as traditional Monte-Carlo require too many samples to provide reasonable statistics. Built upon recent advancements in rare-event sampling, we present a model-based method to verify if a robotic system satisfies a Signal Temporal Logic (STL) specification in the face of environment variations and sensor/actuator noises. Our method is efficient and applicable to both linear and nonlinear and even black-box systems with arbitrary, but known, uncertainty distributions. For linear systems with Gaussian uncertainties, we exploit a feature to find optimal parameters that minimize the probability of failure. We demonstrate illustrative examples on applying our approach to real-world autonomous robotic systems.

Unveiling feeder topologies from data is of paramount importance to advance situational awareness and proper utilization of smart resources in power distribution grids. This tutorial summarizes, contrasts, and establishes useful links between recent works on topology identification and detection schemes that have been proposed for power distribution grids. The primary focus is to highlight methods that overcome the limited availability of measurement devices in distribution grids, while enhancing topology estimates using conservation laws of power-flow physics and structural properties of feeders. Grid data from phasor measurement units or smart meters can be collected either passively in the traditional way, or actively, upon actuating grid resources and measuring the feeder's voltage response. Analytical claims on feeder identifiability and detectability are reviewed under disparate meter placement scenarios. Such topology learning claims can be attained exactly or approximately so via algorithmic solutions with various levels of computational complexity, ranging from least-squares fits to convex optimization problems, and from polynomial-time searches over graphs to mixed-integer programs. Although the emphasis is on radial single-phase feeders, extensions to meshed and/or multiphase circuits are sometimes possible and discussed. This tutorial aspires to provide researchers and engineers with knowledge of the current state-of-the-art in tractable distribution grid learning and insights into future directions of work.

Deep Learning algorithms have achieved the state-of-the-art performance for Image Classification and have been used even in security-critical applications, such as biometric recognition systems and self-driving cars. However, recent works have shown those algorithms, which can even surpass the human capabilities, are vulnerable to adversarial examples. In Computer Vision, adversarial examples are images containing subtle perturbations generated by malicious optimization algorithms in order to fool classifiers. As an attempt to mitigate these vulnerabilities, numerous countermeasures have been constantly proposed in literature. Nevertheless, devising an efficient defense mechanism has proven to be a difficult task, since many approaches have already shown to be ineffective to adaptive attackers. Thus, this self-containing paper aims to provide all readerships with a review of the latest research progress on Adversarial Machine Learning in Image Classification, however with a defender's perspective. Here, novel taxonomies for categorizing adversarial attacks and defenses are introduced and discussions about the existence of adversarial examples are provided. Further, in contrast to exisiting surveys, it is also given relevant guidance that should be taken into consideration by researchers when devising and evaluating defenses. Finally, based on the reviewed literature, it is discussed some promising paths for future research.