Gaussian process (GP) regression is a fundamental tool in Bayesian statistics. It is also known as kriging and is the Bayesian counterpart to the frequentist kernel ridge regression. Most of the theoretical work on GP regression has focused on a large-$n$ asymptotics, i.e. as the amount of data increases. Fixed-sample analysis is much more difficult outside of simple cases, such as locations on a regular grid. In this work we perform a fixed-sample analysis that was first studied in the context of approximation theory by Driscoll & Fornberg (2002), called the ``flat limit''. In flat-limit asymptotics, the goal is to characterise kernel methods as the length-scale of the kernel function tends to infinity, so that kernels appear flat over the range of the data. Surprisingly, this limit is well-defined, and displays interesting behaviour: Driscoll & Fornberg showed that radial basis interpolation converges in the flat limit to polynomial interpolation, if the kernel is Gaussian. Subsequent work showed that this holds true in the multivariate setting as well, but that kernels other than the Gaussian may have (polyharmonic) splines as the limit interpolant. Leveraging recent results on the spectral behaviour of kernel matrices in the flat limit, we study the flat limit of Gaussian process regression. Results show that Gaussian process regression tends in the flat limit to (multivariate) polynomial regression, or (polyharmonic) spline regression, depending on the kernel. Importantly, this holds for both the predictive mean and the predictive variance, so that the posterior predictive distributions become equivalent. Our results have practical consequences: for instance, they show that optimal GP predictions in the sense of leave-one-out loss may occur at very large length-scales, which would be invisible to current implementations because of numerical difficulties.
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Neural networks with self-attention (a.k.a. Transformers) like ViT and Swin have emerged as a better alternative to traditional convolutional neural networks (CNNs). However, our understanding of how the new architecture works is still limited. In this paper, we focus on the phenomenon that Transformers show higher robustness against corruptions than CNNs, while not being overconfident. This is contrary to the intuition that robustness increases with confidence. We resolve this contradiction by empirically investigating how the output of the penultimate layer moves in the representation space as the input data moves linearly within a small area. In particular, we show the following. (1) While CNNs exhibit fairly linear relationship between the input and output movements, Transformers show nonlinear relationship for some data. For those data, the output of Transformers moves in a curved trajectory as the input moves linearly. (2) When a data is located in a curved region, it is hard to move it out of the decision region since the output moves along a curved trajectory instead of a straight line to the decision boundary, resulting in high robustness of Transformers. (3) If a data is slightly modified to jump out of the curved region, the movements afterwards become linear and the output goes to the decision boundary directly. In other words, there does exist a decision boundary near the data, which is hard to find only because of the curved representation space. This explains the underconfident prediction of Transformers. Also, we examine mathematical properties of the attention operation that induce nonlinear response to linear perturbation. Finally, we share our additional findings, regarding what contributes to the curved representation space of Transformers, and how the curvedness evolves during training.
Formally verifying the properties of formal systems using a proof assistant requires justifying numerous minor lemmas about capture-avoiding substitution. Despite work on category-theoretic accounts of syntax and variable binding, raw, first-order representations of syntax, the kind considered by many practitioners and compiler frontends, have received relatively little attention. Therefore applications miss out on the benefits of category theory, most notably the promise of reusing formalized infrastructural lemmas between implementations of different systems. Our Coq framework Tealeaves provides libraries of reusable infrastructure for a raw, locally nameless representation and can be extended to other representations in a modular fashion. In this paper we give a string-diagrammatic account of decorated traversable monads (DTMs), the key abstraction implemented by Tealeaves. We define DTMs as monoids of structured endofunctors before proving a representation theorem a la Kleisli, yielding a recursion combinator for finitary tree-like datatypes.
Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is a fundamental problem in statistics. Characteristics of the MLE problem for algebraic statistical models are reflected in the geometry of the likelihood correspondence, a variety that ties together data and their maximum likelihood estimators. We construct the ideal of the likelihood correspondence for the large class of toric models and find a Gr\"obner basis in the case of complete and joint independence models arising from multi-way contingency tables. These results provide insight into their properties and offer faster computational strategies for solving the MLE problem.
Universal Adversarial Framework to Improve Adversarial Robustness for Diabetic Retinopathy Detection
Diabetic Retinopathy (DR) is a prevalent illness associated with Diabetes which, if left untreated, can result in irreversible blindness. Deep Learning based systems are gradually being introduced as automated support for clinical diagnosis. Since healthcare has always been an extremely important domain demanding error-free performance, any adversaries could pose a big threat to the applicability of such systems. In this work, we use Universal Adversarial Perturbations (UAPs) to quantify the vulnerability of Medical Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) for detecting DR. To the best of our knowledge, this is the very first attempt that works on attacking complete fine-grained classification of DR images using various UAPs. Also, as a part of this work, we use UAPs to fine-tune the trained models to defend against adversarial samples. We experiment on several models and observe that the performance of such models towards unseen adversarial attacks gets boosted on average by $3.41$ Cohen-kappa value and maximum by $31.92$ Cohen-kappa value. The performance degradation on normal data upon ensembling the fine-tuned models was found to be statistically insignificant using t-test, highlighting the benefits of UAP-based adversarial fine-tuning.
Thompson sampling (TS) has been known for its outstanding empirical performance supported by theoretical guarantees across various reward models in the classical stochastic multi-armed bandit problems. Nonetheless, its optimality is often restricted to specific priors due to the common observation that TS is fairly insensitive to the choice of the prior when it comes to asymptotic regret bounds. However, when the model contains multiple parameters, the optimality of TS highly depends on the choice of priors, which casts doubt on the generalizability of previous findings to other models. To address this gap, this study explores the impact of selecting noninformative priors, offering insights into the performance of TS when dealing with new models that lack theoretical understanding. We first extend the regret analysis of TS to the model of uniform distributions with unknown supports, which would be the simplest non-regular model. Our findings reveal that changing noninformative priors can significantly affect the expected regret, aligning with previously known results in other multiparameter bandit models. Although the uniform prior is shown to be optimal, we highlight the inherent limitation of its optimality, which is limited to specific parameterizations and emphasizes the significance of the invariance property of priors. In light of this limitation, we propose a slightly modified TS-based policy, called TS with Truncation (TS-T), which can achieve the asymptotic optimality for the Gaussian models and the uniform models by using the reference prior and the Jeffreys prior that are invariant under one-to-one reparameterizations. This policy provides an alternative approach to achieving optimality by employing fine-tuned truncation, which would be much easier than hunting for optimal priors in practice.
Large Language Models (LLMs) such as GPT and Llama2 are increasingly adopted in many safety-critical applications. Their security is thus essential. Even with considerable efforts spent on reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF), recent studies have shown that LLMs are still subject to attacks such as adversarial perturbation and Trojan attacks. Further research is thus needed to evaluate their security and/or understand the lack of it. In this work, we propose a framework for conducting light-weight causality-analysis of LLMs at the token, layer, and neuron level. We applied our framework to open-source LLMs such as Llama2 and Vicuna and had multiple interesting discoveries. Based on a layer-level causality analysis, we show that RLHF has the effect of overfitting a model to harmful prompts. It implies that such security can be easily overcome by `unusual' harmful prompts. As evidence, we propose an adversarial perturbation method that achieves 100\% attack success rate on the red-teaming tasks of the Trojan Detection Competition 2023. Furthermore, we show the existence of one mysterious neuron in both Llama2 and Vicuna that has an unreasonably high causal effect on the output. While we are uncertain on why such a neuron exists, we show that it is possible to conduct a ``Trojan'' attack targeting that particular neuron to completely cripple the LLM, i.e., we can generate transferable suffixes to prompts that frequently make the LLM produce meaningless responses.
Bayesian Experimental Design (BED), which aims to find the optimal experimental conditions for Bayesian inference, is usually posed as to optimize the expected information gain (EIG). The gradient information is often needed for efficient EIG optimization, and as a result the ability to estimate the gradient of EIG is essential for BED problems. The primary goal of this work is to develop methods for estimating the gradient of EIG, which, combined with the stochastic gradient descent algorithms, result in efficient optimization of EIG. Specifically, we first introduce a posterior expected representation of the EIG gradient with respect to the design variables. Based on this, we propose two methods for estimating the EIG gradient, UEEG-MCMC that leverages posterior samples generated through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to estimate the EIG gradient, and BEEG-AP that focuses on achieving high simulation efficiency by repeatedly using parameter samples. Theoretical analysis and numerical studies illustrate that UEEG-MCMC is robust agains the actual EIG value, while BEEG-AP is more efficient when the EIG value to be optimized is small. Moreover, both methods show superior performance compared to several popular benchmarks in our numerical experiments.
The rapid recent progress in machine learning (ML) has raised a number of scientific questions that challenge the longstanding dogma of the field. One of the most important riddles is the good empirical generalization of overparameterized models. Overparameterized models are excessively complex with respect to the size of the training dataset, which results in them perfectly fitting (i.e., interpolating) the training data, which is usually noisy. Such interpolation of noisy data is traditionally associated with detrimental overfitting, and yet a wide range of interpolating models -- from simple linear models to deep neural networks -- have recently been observed to generalize extremely well on fresh test data. Indeed, the recently discovered double descent phenomenon has revealed that highly overparameterized models often improve over the best underparameterized model in test performance. Understanding learning in this overparameterized regime requires new theory and foundational empirical studies, even for the simplest case of the linear model. The underpinnings of this understanding have been laid in very recent analyses of overparameterized linear regression and related statistical learning tasks, which resulted in precise analytic characterizations of double descent. This paper provides a succinct overview of this emerging theory of overparameterized ML (henceforth abbreviated as TOPML) that explains these recent findings through a statistical signal processing perspective. We emphasize the unique aspects that define the TOPML research area as a subfield of modern ML theory and outline interesting open questions that remain.
Reasoning with knowledge expressed in natural language and Knowledge Bases (KBs) is a major challenge for Artificial Intelligence, with applications in machine reading, dialogue, and question answering. General neural architectures that jointly learn representations and transformations of text are very data-inefficient, and it is hard to analyse their reasoning process. These issues are addressed by end-to-end differentiable reasoning systems such as Neural Theorem Provers (NTPs), although they can only be used with small-scale symbolic KBs. In this paper we first propose Greedy NTPs (GNTPs), an extension to NTPs addressing their complexity and scalability limitations, thus making them applicable to real-world datasets. This result is achieved by dynamically constructing the computation graph of NTPs and including only the most promising proof paths during inference, thus obtaining orders of magnitude more efficient models. Then, we propose a novel approach for jointly reasoning over KBs and textual mentions, by embedding logic facts and natural language sentences in a shared embedding space. We show that GNTPs perform on par with NTPs at a fraction of their cost while achieving competitive link prediction results on large datasets, providing explanations for predictions, and inducing interpretable models. Source code, datasets, and supplementary material are available online at //github.com/uclnlp/gntp.
Recommender System (RS) is a hot area where artificial intelligence (AI) techniques can be effectively applied to improve performance. Since the well-known Netflix Challenge, collaborative filtering (CF) has become the most popular and effective recommendation method. Despite their success in CF, various AI techniques still have to face the data sparsity and cold start problems. Previous works tried to solve these two problems by utilizing auxiliary information, such as social connections among users and meta-data of items. However, they process different types of information separately, leading to information loss. In this work, we propose to utilize Heterogeneous Information Network (HIN), which is a natural and general representation of different types of data, to enhance CF-based recommending methods. HIN-based recommender systems face two problems: how to represent high-level semantics for recommendation and how to fuse the heterogeneous information to recommend. To address these problems, we propose to applying meta-graph to HIN-based RS and solve the information fusion problem with a "matrix factorization (MF) + factorization machine (FM)" framework. For the "MF" part, we obtain user-item similarity matrices from each meta-graph and adopt low-rank matrix approximation to get latent features for both users and items. For the "FM" part, we propose to apply FM with Group lasso (FMG) on the obtained features to simultaneously predict missing ratings and select useful meta-graphs. Experimental results on two large real-world datasets, i.e., Amazon and Yelp, show that our proposed approach is better than that of the state-of-the-art FM and other HIN-based recommending methods.
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