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We link and extend two approaches to estimating time-varying treatment effects on repeated continuous outcomes--time-varying Difference in Differences (DiD; see Roth et al. (2023) and Chaisemartin et al. (2023) for reviews) and Structural Nested Mean Models (SNMMs; see Vansteelandt and Joffe (2014) for a review). In particular, we show that SNMMs, which were previously only known to be nonparametrically identified under a no unobserved confounding assumption, are also identified under a generalized version of the parallel trends assumption typically used to justify time-varying DiD methods. Because SNMMs model a broader set of causal estimands, our results allow practitioners of existing time-varying DiD approaches to address additional types of substantive questions under similar assumptions. SNMMs enable estimation of time-varying effect heterogeneity, lasting effects of a `blip' of treatment at a single time point, effects of sustained interventions (possibly on continuous or multi-dimensional treatments) when treatment repeatedly changes value in the data, controlled direct effects, effects of dynamic treatment strategies that depend on covariate history, and more. Our results also allow analysts who apply SNMMs under the no unobserved confounding assumption to estimate some of the same causal effects under alternative identifying assumptions. We provide a method for sensitivity analysis to violations of our parallel trends assumption. We further explain how to estimate optimal treatment regimes via optimal regime SNMMs under parallel trends assumptions plus an assumption that there is no effect modification by unobserved confounders. Finally, we illustrate our methods with real data applications estimating effects of Medicaid expansion on uninsurance rates, effects of floods on flood insurance take-up, and effects of sustained changes in temperature on crop yields.

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A new online multiple testing procedure is described in the context of anomaly detection, which controls the False Discovery Rate (FDR). An accurate anomaly detector must control the false positive rate at a prescribed level while keeping the false negative rate as low as possible. However in the online context, such a constraint remains highly challenging due to the usual lack of FDR control: the online framework makes it impossible to use classical multiple testing approaches such as the Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) procedure, which would require knowing the entire time series. The developed strategy relies on exploiting the local control of the ``modified FDR'' (mFDR) criterion. It turns out that the local control of mFDR enables global control of the FDR over the full series up to additional modifications of the multiple testing procedures. An important ingredient in this control is the cardinality of the calibration dataset used to compute the empirical p-values. A dedicated strategy for tuning this parameter is designed for achieving the prescribed FDR control over the entire time series. The good statistical performance of the full strategy is analyzed by theoretical guarantees. Its practical behavior is assessed by several simulation experiments which support our conclusions.

Conditional independence (CI) testing is a fundamental task in modern statistics and machine learning. The conditional randomization test (CRT) was recently introduced to test whether two random variables, $X$ and $Y$, are conditionally independent given a potentially high-dimensional set of random variables, $Z$. The CRT operates exceptionally well under the assumption that the conditional distribution $X|Z$ is known. However, since this distribution is typically unknown in practice, accurately approximating it becomes crucial. In this paper, we propose using conditional diffusion models (CDMs) to learn the distribution of $X|Z$. Theoretically and empirically, it is shown that CDMs closely approximate the true conditional distribution. Furthermore, CDMs offer a more accurate approximation of $X|Z$ compared to GANs, potentially leading to a CRT that performs better than those based on GANs. To accommodate complex dependency structures, we utilize a computationally efficient classifier-based conditional mutual information (CMI) estimator as our test statistic. The proposed testing procedure performs effectively without requiring assumptions about specific distribution forms or feature dependencies, and is capable of handling mixed-type conditioning sets that include both continuous and discrete variables. Theoretical analysis shows that our proposed test achieves a valid control of the type I error. A series of experiments on synthetic data demonstrates that our new test effectively controls both type-I and type-II errors, even in high dimensional scenarios.

A challenge in high-dimensional inverse problems is developing iterative solvers to find the accurate solution of regularized optimization problems with low computational cost. An important example is computed tomography (CT) where both image and data sizes are large and therefore the forward model is costly to evaluate. Since several years algorithms from stochastic optimization are used for tomographic image reconstruction with great success by subsampling the data. Here we propose a novel way how stochastic optimization can be used to speed up image reconstruction by means of image domain sketching such that at each iteration an image of different resolution is being used. Hence, we coin this algorithm ImaSk. By considering an associated saddle-point problem, we can formulate ImaSk as a gradient-based algorithm where the gradient is approximated in the same spirit as the stochastic average gradient am\'elior\'e (SAGA) and uses at each iteration one of these multiresolution operators at random. We prove that ImaSk is linearly converging for linear forward models with strongly convex regularization functions. Numerical simulations on CT show that ImaSk is effective and increasing the number of multiresolution operators reduces the computational time to reach the modeled solution.

Estimating the conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is very important in causal inference and has a wide range of applications across many fields. In the estimation process of CATE, the unconfoundedness assumption is typically required to ensure the identifiability of the regression problems. When estimating CATE using high-dimensional data, there have been many variable selection methods and neural network approaches based on representation learning, while these methods do not provide a way to verify whether the subset of variables after dimensionality reduction or the learned representations still satisfy the unconfoundedness assumption during the estimation process, which can lead to ineffective estimates of the treatment effects. Additionally, these methods typically use data from only the treatment or control group when estimating the regression functions for each group. This paper proposes a novel neural network approach named \textbf{CrossNet} to learn a sufficient representation for the features, based on which we then estimate the CATE, where cross indicates that in estimating the regression functions, we used data from their own group as well as cross-utilized data from another group. Numerical simulations and empirical results demonstrate that our method outperforms the competitive approaches.

Multimodal large language models have experienced rapid growth, and numerous different models have emerged. The interpretability of LVLMs remains an under-explored area. Especially when faced with more complex tasks such as chain-of-thought reasoning, its internal mechanisms still resemble a black box that is difficult to decipher. By studying the interaction and information flow between images and text, we noticed that in models such as LLaVA1.5, image tokens that are semantically related to text are more likely to have information flow convergence in the LLM decoding layer, and these image tokens receive higher attention scores. However, those image tokens that are less relevant to the text do not have information flow convergence, and they only get very small attention scores. To efficiently utilize the image information, we propose a new image token reduction method, Simignore, which aims to improve the complex reasoning ability of LVLMs by computing the similarity between image and text embeddings and ignoring image tokens that are irrelevant and unimportant to the text. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method for complex reasoning tasks. The paper's source code can be accessed from \url{//github.com/FanshuoZeng/Simignore}.

Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity is crucial for reliable decision-making in treatment evaluation and selection. The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is widely used to capture treatment effect heterogeneity induced by observed covariates and to design individualized treatment policies. However, it is an average metric within subpopulations, which prevents it from revealing individual-level risks, potentially leading to misleading results. This article fills this gap by examining individual risk for binary outcomes, specifically focusing on the fraction negatively affected (FNA), a metric that quantifies the percentage of individuals experiencing worse outcomes under treatment compared with control. Even under the strong ignorability assumption, FNA is still unidentifiable, and the existing Frechet-Hoeffding bounds are usually too wide and attainable only under extreme data-generating processes. By invoking mild conditions on the value range of the Pearson correlation coefficient between potential outcomes, we obtain improved bounds compared with previous studies. We show that paradoxically, even with a positive CATE, the lower bound on FNA can be positive, i.e., in the best-case scenario many units will be harmed if they receive treatment. Additionally, we establish a nonparametric sensitivity analysis framework for FNA using the Pearson correlation coefficient as the sensitivity parameter, thereby exploring the relationships among the correlation coefficient, FNA, and CATE. We also propose a method for selecting the range of correlation coefficients. Furthermore, we propose nonparametric estimators for the refined FNA bounds and prove their consistency and asymptotic normality.

Multimodal Knowledge Graph Construction (MMKC) refers to the process of creating a structured representation of entities and relationships through multiple modalities such as text, images, videos, etc. However, existing MMKC models have limitations in handling the introduction of new entities and relations due to the dynamic nature of the real world. Moreover, most state-of-the-art studies in MMKC only consider entity and relation extraction from text data while neglecting other multi-modal sources. Meanwhile, the current continual setting for knowledge graph construction only consider entity and relation extraction from text data while neglecting other multi-modal sources. Therefore, there arises the need to explore the challenge of continuous multimodal knowledge graph construction to address the phenomenon of catastrophic forgetting and ensure the retention of past knowledge extracted from different forms of data. This research focuses on investigating this complex topic by developing lifelong multimodal benchmark datasets. Based on the empirical findings that several state-of-the-art MMKC models, when trained on multimedia data, might unexpectedly underperform compared to those solely utilizing textual resources in a continual setting, we propose a Lifelong MultiModal Consistent Transformer Framework (LMC) for continuous multimodal knowledge graph construction. By combining the advantages of consistent KGC strategies within the context of continual learning, we achieve greater balance between stability and plasticity. Our experiments demonstrate the superior performance of our method over prevailing continual learning techniques or multimodal approaches in dynamic scenarios. Code and datasets can be found at //github.com/zjunlp/ContinueMKGC.

Recently, a considerable literature has grown up around the theme of Graph Convolutional Network (GCN). How to effectively leverage the rich structural information in complex graphs, such as knowledge graphs with heterogeneous types of entities and relations, is a primary open challenge in the field. Most GCN methods are either restricted to graphs with a homogeneous type of edges (e.g., citation links only), or focusing on representation learning for nodes only instead of jointly propagating and updating the embeddings of both nodes and edges for target-driven objectives. This paper addresses these limitations by proposing a novel framework, namely the Knowledge Embedding based Graph Convolutional Network (KE-GCN), which combines the power of GCNs in graph-based belief propagation and the strengths of advanced knowledge embedding (a.k.a. knowledge graph embedding) methods, and goes beyond. Our theoretical analysis shows that KE-GCN offers an elegant unification of several well-known GCN methods as specific cases, with a new perspective of graph convolution. Experimental results on benchmark datasets show the advantageous performance of KE-GCN over strong baseline methods in the tasks of knowledge graph alignment and entity classification.

This paper presents a new approach for assembling graph neural networks based on framelet transforms. The latter provides a multi-scale representation for graph-structured data. With the framelet system, we can decompose the graph feature into low-pass and high-pass frequencies as extracted features for network training, which then defines a framelet-based graph convolution. The framelet decomposition naturally induces a graph pooling strategy by aggregating the graph feature into low-pass and high-pass spectra, which considers both the feature values and geometry of the graph data and conserves the total information. The graph neural networks with the proposed framelet convolution and pooling achieve state-of-the-art performance in many types of node and graph prediction tasks. Moreover, we propose shrinkage as a new activation for the framelet convolution, which thresholds the high-frequency information at different scales. Compared to ReLU, shrinkage in framelet convolution improves the graph neural network model in terms of denoising and signal compression: noises in both node and structure can be significantly reduced by accurately cutting off the high-pass coefficients from framelet decomposition, and the signal can be compressed to less than half its original size with the prediction performance well preserved.

The dominant sequence transduction models are based on complex recurrent or convolutional neural networks in an encoder-decoder configuration. The best performing models also connect the encoder and decoder through an attention mechanism. We propose a new simple network architecture, the Transformer, based solely on attention mechanisms, dispensing with recurrence and convolutions entirely. Experiments on two machine translation tasks show these models to be superior in quality while being more parallelizable and requiring significantly less time to train. Our model achieves 28.4 BLEU on the WMT 2014 English-to-German translation task, improving over the existing best results, including ensembles by over 2 BLEU. On the WMT 2014 English-to-French translation task, our model establishes a new single-model state-of-the-art BLEU score of 41.8 after training for 3.5 days on eight GPUs, a small fraction of the training costs of the best models from the literature. We show that the Transformer generalizes well to other tasks by applying it successfully to English constituency parsing both with large and limited training data.

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