We encounter time series data in many domains such as finance, physics, business, and weather. One of the main tasks of time series analysis, one that helps to take informed decisions under uncertainty, is forecasting. Time series are often hierarchically structured, e.g., a company sales might be broken down into different regions, and each region into different stores. In some cases the number of series in the hierarchy is too big to fit in a single model to produce forecasts in relevant time, and a decentralized approach is beneficial. One way to do this is to train independent forecasting models for each series and for some summary statistics series implied by the hierarchy (e.g. the sum of all series) and to pass those models to a reconciliation algorithm to improve those forecasts by sharing information between the series. In this work we focus on the reconciliation step, and propose a method to do so from a Bayesian perspective - Bayesian forecast reconciliation. We also define the common case of linear Gaussian reconciliation, where the forecasts are Gaussian and the hierarchy has linear structure, and show that we can compute reconciliation in closed form. We evaluate these methods on synthetic and real data sets, and compare them to other work in this field.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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When seeking to release public use files for confidential data, statistical agencies can generate fully synthetic data. We propose an approach for making fully synthetic data from surveys collected with complex sampling designs. Specifically, we generate pseudo-populations by applying the weighted finite population Bayesian bootstrap to account for survey weights, take simple random samples from those pseudo-populations, estimate synthesis models using these simple random samples, and release simulated data drawn from the models as the public use files. We use the framework of multiple imputation to enable variance estimation using two data generation strategies. In the first, we generate multiple data sets from each simple random sample, whereas in the second, we generate a single synthetic data set from each simple random sample. We present multiple imputation combining rules for each setting. We illustrate each approach and the repeated sampling properties of the combining rules using simulation studies.
In the era of digital markets, the challenge for consumers is discerning quality amidst information asymmetry. While traditional markets use brand mechanisms to address this issue, transferring such systems to internet-based P2P markets, where misleading practices like fake ratings are rampant, remains challenging. Current internet platforms strive to counter this through verification algorithms, but these efforts find themselves in a continuous tug-of-war with counterfeit actions. Exploiting the transparency, immutability, and traceability of blockchain technology, this paper introduces a robust reputation voting system grounded in it. Unlike existing blockchain-based reputation systems, our model harnesses an intrinsically economically incentivized approach to bolster agent integrity. We optimize this model to mirror real-world user behavior, preserving the reputation system's foundational sustainability. Through Monte-Carlo simulations, using both uniform and power-law distributions enabled by an innovative inverse transform method, we traverse a broad parameter landscape, replicating real-world complexity. The findings underscore the promise of a sustainable, transparent, and formidable reputation mechanism. Given its structure, our framework can potentially function as a universal, sustainable oracle for offchain-onchain bridging, aiding entities in perpetually cultivating their reputation. Future integration with technologies like Ring Signature and Zero Knowledge Proof could amplify the system's privacy facets, rendering it particularly influential in the ever-evolving digital domain.
In the incremental detection task, unlike the incremental classification task, data ambiguity exists due to the possibility of an image having different labeled bounding boxes in multiple continuous learning stages. This phenomenon often impairs the model's ability to learn new classes. However, the forward compatibility of the model is less considered in existing work, which hinders the model's suitability for incremental learning. To overcome this obstacle, we propose to use a language-visual model such as CLIP to generate text feature embeddings for different class sets, which enhances the feature space globally. We then employ the broad classes to replace the unavailable novel classes in the early learning stage to simulate the actual incremental scenario. Finally, we use the CLIP image encoder to identify potential objects in the proposals, which are classified into the background by the model. We modify the background labels of those proposals to known classes and add the boxes to the training set to alleviate the problem of data ambiguity. We evaluate our approach on various incremental learning settings on the PASCAL VOC 2007 dataset, and our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods, particularly for the new classes.
In many use-cases, information is stored in text but not available in structured data. However, extracting data from natural language text to precisely fit a schema, and thus enable querying, is a challenging task. With the rise of pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs), there is now an effective solution to store and use information extracted from massive corpora of text documents. Thus, we envision the use of SQL queries to cover a broad range of data that is not captured by traditional databases by tapping the information in LLMs. To ground this vision, we present Galois, a prototype based on a traditional database architecture, but with new physical operators for querying the underlying LLM. The main idea is to execute some operators of the the query plan with prompts that retrieve data from the LLM. For a large class of SQL queries, querying LLMs returns well structured relations, with encouraging qualitative results. Preliminary experimental results make pre-trained LLMs a promising addition to the field of database systems, introducing a new direction for hybrid query processing. However, we pinpoint several research challenges that must be addressed to build a DBMS that exploits LLMs. While some of these challenges necessitate integrating concepts from the NLP literature, others offer novel research avenues for the DB community.
Current multilingual semantic parsing (MSP) datasets are almost all collected by translating the utterances in the existing datasets from the resource-rich language to the target language. However, manual translation is costly. To reduce the translation effort, this paper proposes the first active learning procedure for MSP (AL-MSP). AL-MSP selects only a subset from the existing datasets to be translated. We also propose a novel selection method that prioritizes the examples diversifying the logical form structures with more lexical choices, and a novel hyperparameter tuning method that needs no extra annotation cost. Our experiments show that AL-MSP significantly reduces translation costs with ideal selection methods. Our selection method with proper hyperparameters yields better parsing performance than the other baselines on two multilingual datasets.
Sorting is a fundamental operation of all computer systems, having been a long-standing significant research topic. Beyond the problem formulation of traditional sorting algorithms, we consider sorting problems for more abstract yet expressive inputs, e.g., multi-digit images and image fragments, through a neural sorting network. To learn a mapping from a high-dimensional input to an ordinal variable, the differentiability of sorting networks needs to be guaranteed. In this paper we define a softening error by a differentiable swap function, and develop an error-free swap function that holds non-decreasing and differentiability conditions. Furthermore, a permutation-equivariant Transformer network with multi-head attention is adopted to capture dependency between given inputs and also leverage its model capacity with self-attention. Experiments on diverse sorting benchmarks show that our methods perform better than or comparable to baseline methods.
The real-world data tends to be heavily imbalanced and severely skew the data-driven deep neural networks, which makes Long-Tailed Recognition (LTR) a massive challenging task. Existing LTR methods seldom train Vision Transformers (ViTs) with Long-Tailed (LT) data, while the off-the-shelf pretrain weight of ViTs always leads to unfair comparisons. In this paper, we systematically investigate the ViTs' performance in LTR and propose LiVT to train ViTs from scratch only with LT data. With the observation that ViTs suffer more severe LTR problems, we conduct Masked Generative Pretraining (MGP) to learn generalized features. With ample and solid evidence, we show that MGP is more robust than supervised manners. In addition, Binary Cross Entropy (BCE) loss, which shows conspicuous performance with ViTs, encounters predicaments in LTR. We further propose the balanced BCE to ameliorate it with strong theoretical groundings. Specially, we derive the unbiased extension of Sigmoid and compensate extra logit margins to deploy it. Our Bal-BCE contributes to the quick convergence of ViTs in just a few epochs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that with MGP and Bal-BCE, LiVT successfully trains ViTs well without any additional data and outperforms comparable state-of-the-art methods significantly, e.g., our ViT-B achieves 81.0% Top-1 accuracy in iNaturalist 2018 without bells and whistles. Code is available at //github.com/XuZhengzhuo/LiVT.
Co-evolving time series appears in a multitude of applications such as environmental monitoring, financial analysis, and smart transportation. This paper aims to address the following challenges, including (C1) how to incorporate explicit relationship networks of the time series; (C2) how to model the implicit relationship of the temporal dynamics. We propose a novel model called Network of Tensor Time Series, which is comprised of two modules, including Tensor Graph Convolutional Network (TGCN) and Tensor Recurrent Neural Network (TRNN). TGCN tackles the first challenge by generalizing Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) for flat graphs to tensor graphs, which captures the synergy between multiple graphs associated with the tensors. TRNN leverages tensor decomposition to model the implicit relationships among co-evolving time series. The experimental results on five real-world datasets demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method.
Recently, graph neural networks (GNNs) have revolutionized the field of graph representation learning through effectively learned node embeddings, and achieved state-of-the-art results in tasks such as node classification and link prediction. However, current GNN methods are inherently flat and do not learn hierarchical representations of graphs---a limitation that is especially problematic for the task of graph classification, where the goal is to predict the label associated with an entire graph. Here we propose DiffPool, a differentiable graph pooling module that can generate hierarchical representations of graphs and can be combined with various graph neural network architectures in an end-to-end fashion. DiffPool learns a differentiable soft cluster assignment for nodes at each layer of a deep GNN, mapping nodes to a set of clusters, which then form the coarsened input for the next GNN layer. Our experimental results show that combining existing GNN methods with DiffPool yields an average improvement of 5-10% accuracy on graph classification benchmarks, compared to all existing pooling approaches, achieving a new state-of-the-art on four out of five benchmark data sets.
Aspect based sentiment analysis (ABSA) can provide more detailed information than general sentiment analysis, because it aims to predict the sentiment polarities of the given aspects or entities in text. We summarize previous approaches into two subtasks: aspect-category sentiment analysis (ACSA) and aspect-term sentiment analysis (ATSA). Most previous approaches employ long short-term memory and attention mechanisms to predict the sentiment polarity of the concerned targets, which are often complicated and need more training time. We propose a model based on convolutional neural networks and gating mechanisms, which is more accurate and efficient. First, the novel Gated Tanh-ReLU Units can selectively output the sentiment features according to the given aspect or entity. The architecture is much simpler than attention layer used in the existing models. Second, the computations of our model could be easily parallelized during training, because convolutional layers do not have time dependency as in LSTM layers, and gating units also work independently. The experiments on SemEval datasets demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our models.
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