Local decision rules are commonly understood to be more explainable, due to the local nature of the patterns involved. With numerical optimization methods such as gradient boosting, ensembles of local decision rules can gain good predictive performance on data involving global structure. Meanwhile, machine learning models are being increasingly used to solve problems in high-stake domains including healthcare and finance. Here, there is an emerging consensus regarding the need for practitioners to understand whether and how those models could perform robustly in the deployment environments, in the presence of distributional shifts. Past research on local decision rules has focused mainly on maximizing discriminant patterns, without due consideration of robustness against distributional shifts. In order to fill this gap, we propose a new method to learn and ensemble local decision rules, that are robust both in the training and deployment environments. Specifically, we propose to leverage causal knowledge by regarding the distributional shifts in subpopulations and deployment environments as the results of interventions on the underlying system. We propose two regularization terms based on causal knowledge to search for optimal and stable rules. Experiments on both synthetic and benchmark datasets show that our method is effective and robust against distributional shifts in multiple environments.
相關內容
Decision support tools enable improved decision-making for challenging decision problems by empowering stakeholders to process, analyze, visualize, and otherwise make sense of a variety of key factors. Their intentional design is a critical component of the value they create. All decision-support tools share in common that there is a complex decision problem to be solved for which decision-support is useful, and moreover, that appropriate analytics expertise is available to produce solutions to the problem setting at hand. When well-designed, decision support tools reduce friction and increase efficiency in providing support for the decision-making process, thereby improving the ability of decision-makers to make quality decisions. On the other hand, the presence of overwhelming, superfluous, insufficient, or ill-fitting information and software features can have an adverse effect on the decision-making process and, consequently, outcomes. We advocate for an innovative, and perhaps overlooked, approach to designing effective decision support tools: genuinely listening to the project stakeholders, to ascertain and appreciate their real needs and perspectives. By prioritizing stakeholder needs, a foundation of mutual trust and understanding is established with the design team. We maintain this trust is critical to eventual tool acceptance and adoption, and its absence jeopardizes the future use of the tool, which would leave its analytical insights for naught. We discuss examples across multiple contexts to underscore our collective experience, highlight lessons learned, and present recommended practices to improve the design and eventual adoption of decision dupport tools.
This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of stochastic systems affected by external manipulation (interventions). This thesis contributes to the research areas concerning the estimation of causal effects, causal structure learning, and distributionally robust (out-of-distribution generalizing) prediction methods. We present novel and consistent linear and non-linear causal effects estimators in instrumental variable settings that employ data-dependent mean squared prediction error regularization. Our proposed estimators show, in certain settings, mean squared error improvements compared to both canonical and state-of-the-art estimators. We show that recent research on distributionally robust prediction methods has connections to well-studied estimators from econometrics. This connection leads us to prove that general K-class estimators possess distributional robustness properties. We, furthermore, propose a general framework for distributional robustness with respect to intervention-induced distributions. In this framework, we derive sufficient conditions for the identifiability of distributionally robust prediction methods and present impossibility results that show the necessity of several of these conditions. We present a new structure learning method applicable in additive noise models with directed trees as causal graphs. We prove consistency in a vanishing identifiability setup and provide a method for testing substructure hypotheses with asymptotic family-wise error control that remains valid post-selection. Finally, we present heuristic ideas for learning summary graphs of nonlinear time-series models.
Counterfactual explanations are usually generated through heuristics that are sensitive to the search's initial conditions. The absence of guarantees of performance and robustness hinders trustworthiness. In this paper, we take a disciplined approach towards counterfactual explanations for tree ensembles. We advocate for a model-based search aiming at "optimal" explanations and propose efficient mixed-integer programming approaches. We show that isolation forests can be modeled within our framework to focus the search on plausible explanations with a low outlier score. We provide comprehensive coverage of additional constraints that model important objectives, heterogeneous data types, structural constraints on the feature space, along with resource and actionability restrictions. Our experimental analyses demonstrate that the proposed search approach requires a computational effort that is orders of magnitude smaller than previous mathematical programming algorithms. It scales up to large data sets and tree ensembles, where it provides, within seconds, systematic explanations grounded on well-defined models solved to optimality.
Deep neural networks are vulnerable to adversarial examples that mislead the models with imperceptible perturbations. Though adversarial attacks have achieved incredible success rates in the white-box setting, most existing adversaries often exhibit weak transferability in the black-box setting, especially under the scenario of attacking models with defense mechanisms. In this work, we propose a new method called variance tuning to enhance the class of iterative gradient based attack methods and improve their attack transferability. Specifically, at each iteration for the gradient calculation, instead of directly using the current gradient for the momentum accumulation, we further consider the gradient variance of the previous iteration to tune the current gradient so as to stabilize the update direction and escape from poor local optima. Empirical results on the standard ImageNet dataset demonstrate that our method could significantly improve the transferability of gradient-based adversarial attacks. Besides, our method could be used to attack ensemble models or be integrated with various input transformations. Incorporating variance tuning with input transformations on iterative gradient-based attacks in the multi-model setting, the integrated method could achieve an average success rate of 90.1% against nine advanced defense methods, improving the current best attack performance significantly by 85.1% . Code is available at //github.com/JHL-HUST/VT.
Recent advances in Knowledge Graph Embedding (KGE) allow for representing entities and relations in continuous vector spaces. Some traditional KGE models leveraging additional type information can improve the representation of entities which however totally rely on the explicit types or neglect the diverse type representations specific to various relations. Besides, none of the existing methods is capable of inferring all the relation patterns of symmetry, inversion and composition as well as the complex properties of 1-N, N-1 and N-N relations, simultaneously. To explore the type information for any KG, we develop a novel KGE framework with Automated Entity TypE Representation (AutoETER), which learns the latent type embedding of each entity by regarding each relation as a translation operation between the types of two entities with a relation-aware projection mechanism. Particularly, our designed automated type representation learning mechanism is a pluggable module which can be easily incorporated with any KGE model. Besides, our approach could model and infer all the relation patterns and complex relations. Experiments on four datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our model compared to state-of-the-art baselines on link prediction tasks, and the visualization of type clustering provides clearly the explanation of type embeddings and verifies the effectiveness of our model.
Ensembles over neural network weights trained from different random initialization, known as deep ensembles, achieve state-of-the-art accuracy and calibration. The recently introduced batch ensembles provide a drop-in replacement that is more parameter efficient. In this paper, we design ensembles not only over weights, but over hyperparameters to improve the state of the art in both settings. For best performance independent of budget, we propose hyper-deep ensembles, a simple procedure that involves a random search over different hyperparameters, themselves stratified across multiple random initializations. Its strong performance highlights the benefit of combining models with both weight and hyperparameter diversity. We further propose a parameter efficient version, hyper-batch ensembles, which builds on the layer structure of batch ensembles and self-tuning networks. The computational and memory costs of our method are notably lower than typical ensembles. On image classification tasks, with MLP, LeNet, and Wide ResNet 28-10 architectures, our methodology improves upon both deep and batch ensembles.
Reasoning is essential for the development of large knowledge graphs, especially for completion, which aims to infer new triples based on existing ones. Both rules and embeddings can be used for knowledge graph reasoning and they have their own advantages and difficulties. Rule-based reasoning is accurate and explainable but rule learning with searching over the graph always suffers from efficiency due to huge search space. Embedding-based reasoning is more scalable and efficient as the reasoning is conducted via computation between embeddings, but it has difficulty learning good representations for sparse entities because a good embedding relies heavily on data richness. Based on this observation, in this paper we explore how embedding and rule learning can be combined together and complement each other's difficulties with their advantages. We propose a novel framework IterE iteratively learning embeddings and rules, in which rules are learned from embeddings with proper pruning strategy and embeddings are learned from existing triples and new triples inferred by rules. Evaluations on embedding qualities of IterE show that rules help improve the quality of sparse entity embeddings and their link prediction results. We also evaluate the efficiency of rule learning and quality of rules from IterE compared with AMIE+, showing that IterE is capable of generating high quality rules more efficiently. Experiments show that iteratively learning embeddings and rules benefit each other during learning and prediction.
Incorporating knowledge graph (KG) into recommender system is promising in improving the recommendation accuracy and explainability. However, existing methods largely assume that a KG is complete and simply transfer the "knowledge" in KG at the shallow level of entity raw data or embeddings. This may lead to suboptimal performance, since a practical KG can hardly be complete, and it is common that a KG has missing facts, relations, and entities. Thus, we argue that it is crucial to consider the incomplete nature of KG when incorporating it into recommender system. In this paper, we jointly learn the model of recommendation and knowledge graph completion. Distinct from previous KG-based recommendation methods, we transfer the relation information in KG, so as to understand the reasons that a user likes an item. As an example, if a user has watched several movies directed by (relation) the same person (entity), we can infer that the director relation plays a critical role when the user makes the decision, thus help to understand the user's preference at a finer granularity. Technically, we contribute a new translation-based recommendation model, which specially accounts for various preferences in translating a user to an item, and then jointly train it with a KG completion model by combining several transfer schemes. Extensive experiments on two benchmark datasets show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art KG-based recommendation methods. Further analysis verifies the positive effect of joint training on both tasks of recommendation and KG completion, and the advantage of our model in understanding user preference. We publish our project at //github.com/TaoMiner/joint-kg-recommender.
Commonsense knowledge is paramount to enable intelligent systems. Typically, it is characterized as being implicit and ambiguous, hindering thereby the automation of its acquisition. To address these challenges, this paper presents semantically enhanced models to enable reasoning through resolving part of commonsense ambiguity. The proposed models enhance in a knowledge graph embedding (KGE) framework for knowledge base completion. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the new semantic models in commonsense reasoning.
Inferring missing links in knowledge graphs (KG) has attracted a lot of attention from the research community. In this paper, we tackle a practical query answering task involving predicting the relation of a given entity pair. We frame this prediction problem as an inference problem in a probabilistic graphical model and aim at resolving it from a variational inference perspective. In order to model the relation between the query entity pair, we assume that there exists an underlying latent variable (paths connecting two nodes) in the KG, which carries the equivalent semantics of their relations. However, due to the intractability of connections in large KGs, we propose to use variation inference to maximize the evidence lower bound. More specifically, our framework (\textsc{Diva}) is composed of three modules, i.e. a posterior approximator, a prior (path finder), and a likelihood (path reasoner). By using variational inference, we are able to incorporate them closely into a unified architecture and jointly optimize them to perform KG reasoning. With active interactions among these sub-modules, \textsc{Diva} is better at handling noise and coping with more complex reasoning scenarios. In order to evaluate our method, we conduct the experiment of the link prediction task on multiple datasets and achieve state-of-the-art performances on both datasets.
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