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Non-line-of-sight (NLOS) tracking has drawn increasing attention in recent years, due to its ability to detect object motion out of sight. Most previous works on NLOS tracking rely on active illumination, e.g., laser, and suffer from high cost and elaborate experimental conditions. Besides, these techniques are still far from practical application due to oversimplified settings. In contrast, we propose a purely passive method to track a person walking in an invisible room by only observing a relay wall, which is more in line with real application scenarios, e.g., security. To excavate imperceptible changes in videos of the relay wall, we introduce difference frames as an essential carrier of temporal-local motion messages. In addition, we propose PAC-Net, which consists of alternating propagation and calibration, making it capable of leveraging both dynamic and static messages on a frame-level granularity. To evaluate the proposed method, we build and publish the first dynamic passive NLOS tracking dataset, NLOS-Track, which fills the vacuum of realistic NLOS datasets. NLOS-Track contains thousands of NLOS video clips and corresponding trajectories. Both real-shot and synthetic data are included.

Recently, causal inference has attracted increasing attention from researchers of recommender systems (RS), which analyzes the relationship between a cause and its effect and has a wide range of real-world applications in multiple fields. Causal inference can model the causality in recommender systems like confounding effects and deal with counterfactual problems such as offline policy evaluation and data augmentation. Although there are already some valuable surveys on causal recommendations, these surveys introduce approaches in a relatively isolated way and lack theoretical analysis of existing methods. Due to the unfamiliarity with causality to RS researchers, it is both necessary and challenging to comprehensively review the relevant studies from the perspective of causal theory, which might be instructive for the readers to propose new approaches in practice. This survey attempts to provide a systematic review of up-to-date papers in this area from a theoretical standpoint. Firstly, we introduce the fundamental concepts of causal inference as the basis of the following review. Then we propose a new taxonomy from the perspective of causal techniques and further discuss technical details about how existing methods apply causal inference to address specific recommender issues. Finally, we highlight some promising directions for future research in this field.

Long-tailed classification poses a challenge due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities and tail-sensitivity risks with asymmetric misprediction costs. Recent attempts have used re-balancing loss and ensemble methods, but they are largely heuristic and depend heavily on empirical results, lacking theoretical explanation. Furthermore, existing methods overlook the decision loss, which characterizes different costs associated with tailed classes. This paper presents a general and principled framework from a Bayesian-decision-theory perspective, which unifies existing techniques including re-balancing and ensemble methods, and provides theoretical justifications for their effectiveness. From this perspective, we derive a novel objective based on the integrated risk and a Bayesian deep-ensemble approach to improve the accuracy of all classes, especially the "tail". Besides, our framework allows for task-adaptive decision loss which provides provably optimal decisions in varying task scenarios, along with the capability to quantify uncertainty. Finally, We conduct comprehensive experiments, including standard classification, tail-sensitive classification with a new False Head Rate metric, calibration, and ablation studies. Our framework significantly improves the current SOTA even on large-scale real-world datasets like ImageNet.

Neural networks solving real-world problems are often required not only to make accurate predictions but also to provide a confidence level in the forecast. The calibration of a model indicates how close the estimated confidence is to the true probability. This paper presents a survey of confidence calibration problems in the context of neural networks and provides an empirical comparison of calibration methods. We analyze problem statement, calibration definitions, and different approaches to evaluation: visualizations and scalar measures that estimate whether the model is well-calibrated. We review modern calibration techniques: based on post-processing or requiring changes in training. Empirical experiments cover various datasets and models, comparing calibration methods according to different criteria.

In the design of wireless receivers, DNNs can be combined with traditional model-based receiver algorithms to realize modular hybrid model-based/data-driven architectures that can account for domain knowledge. Such architectures typically include multiple modules, each carrying out a different functionality. Conventionally trained DNN-based modules are known to produce poorly calibrated, typically overconfident, decisions. This implies that an incorrect decision may propagate through the architecture without any indication of its insufficient accuracy. To address this problem, we present a novel combination of Bayesian learning with hybrid model-based/data-driven architectures for wireless receiver design. The proposed methodology, referred to as modular model-based Bayesian learning, results in better calibrated modules, improving accuracy and calibration of the overall receiver. We demonstrate this approach for the recently proposed DeepSIC MIMO receiver, showing significant improvements with respect to the state-of-the-art learning methods.

Safe deployment of deep neural networks in high-stake real-world applications requires theoretically sound uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction (CP) is a principled framework for uncertainty quantification of deep models in the form of prediction set for classification tasks with a user-specified coverage (i.e., true class label is contained with high probability). This paper proposes a novel algorithm referred to as Neighborhood Conformal Prediction (NCP) to improve the efficiency of uncertainty quantification from CP for deep classifiers (i.e., reduce prediction set size). The key idea behind NCP is to use the learned representation of the neural network to identify k nearest-neighbors calibration examples for a given testing input and assign them importance weights proportional to their distance to create adaptive prediction sets. We theoretically show that if the learned data representation of the neural network satisfies some mild conditions, NCP will produce smaller prediction sets than traditional CP algorithms. Our comprehensive experiments on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet datasets using diverse deep neural networks strongly demonstrate that NCP leads to significant reduction in prediction set size over prior CP methods.

The use of expectiles in risk management has recently gathered remarkable momentum due to their excellent axiomatic and probabilistic properties. In particular, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures only consists of expectiles. While the theory of expectile estimation at central levels is substantial, tail estimation at extreme levels has so far only been considered when the tail of the underlying distribution is heavy. This article is the first work to handle the short-tailed setting where the loss (e.g. negative log-returns) distribution of interest is bounded to the right and the corresponding extreme value index is negative. We derive an asymptotic expansion of tail expectiles in this challenging context under a general second-order extreme value condition, which allows to come up with two semiparametric estimators of extreme expectiles, and with their asymptotic properties in a general model of strictly stationary but weakly dependent observations. A simulation study and a real data analysis from a forecasting perspective are performed to verify and compare the proposed competing estimation procedures.

This paper presents a new methodology to alleviate the fundamental trade-off between accuracy and latency in spiking neural networks (SNNs). The approach involves decoding confidence information over time from the SNN outputs and using it to develop a decision-making agent that can dynamically determine when to terminate each inference. The proposed method, Dynamic Confidence, provides several significant benefits to SNNs. 1. It can effectively optimize latency dynamically at runtime, setting it apart from many existing low-latency SNN algorithms. Our experiments on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets have demonstrated an average 40% speedup across eight different settings after applying Dynamic Confidence. 2. The decision-making agent in Dynamic Confidence is straightforward to construct and highly robust in parameter space, making it extremely easy to implement. 3. The proposed method enables visualizing the potential of any given SNN, which sets a target for current SNNs to approach. For instance, if an SNN can terminate at the most appropriate time point for each input sample, a ResNet-50 SNN can achieve an accuracy as high as 82.47% on ImageNet within just 4.71 time steps on average. Unlocking the potential of SNNs needs a highly-reliable decision-making agent to be constructed and fed with a high-quality estimation of ground truth. In this regard, Dynamic Confidence represents a meaningful step toward realizing the potential of SNNs.

Having reliable specifications is an unavoidable challenge in achieving verifiable correctness, robustness, and interpretability of AI systems. Existing specifications for neural networks are in the paradigm of data as specification. That is, the local neighborhood centering around a reference input is considered to be correct (or robust). While existing specifications contribute to verifying adversarial robustness, a significant problem in many research domains, our empirical study shows that those verified regions are somewhat tight, and thus fail to allow verification of test set inputs, making them impractical for some real-world applications. To this end, we propose a new family of specifications called neural representation as specification, which uses the intrinsic information of neural networks - neural activation patterns (NAPs), rather than input data to specify the correctness and/or robustness of neural network predictions. We present a simple statistical approach to mining neural activation patterns. To show the effectiveness of discovered NAPs, we formally verify several important properties, such as various types of misclassifications will never happen for a given NAP, and there is no ambiguity between different NAPs. We show that by using NAP, we can verify a significant region of the input space, while still recalling 84% of the data on MNIST. Moreover, we can push the verifiable bound to 10 times larger on the CIFAR10 benchmark. Thus, we argue that NAPs can potentially be used as a more reliable and extensible specification for neural network verification.

Standard Unsupervised Domain Adaptation (UDA) methods assume the availability of both source and target data during the adaptation. In this work, we investigate Source-free Unsupervised Domain Adaptation (SF-UDA), a specific case of UDA where a model is adapted to a target domain without access to source data. We propose a novel approach for the SF-UDA setting based on a loss reweighting strategy that brings robustness against the noise that inevitably affects the pseudo-labels. The classification loss is reweighted based on the reliability of the pseudo-labels that is measured by estimating their uncertainty. Guided by such reweighting strategy, the pseudo-labels are progressively refined by aggregating knowledge from neighbouring samples. Furthermore, a self-supervised contrastive framework is leveraged as a target space regulariser to enhance such knowledge aggregation. A novel negative pairs exclusion strategy is proposed to identify and exclude negative pairs made of samples sharing the same class, even in presence of some noise in the pseudo-labels. Our method outperforms previous methods on three major benchmarks by a large margin. We set the new SF-UDA state-of-the-art on VisDA-C and DomainNet with a performance gain of +1.8% on both benchmarks and on PACS with +12.3% in the single-source setting and +6.6% in multi-target adaptation. Additional analyses demonstrate that the proposed approach is robust to the noise, which results in significantly more accurate pseudo-labels compared to state-of-the-art approaches.