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Automated data augmentation, which aims at engineering augmentation policy automatically, recently draw a growing research interest. Many previous auto-augmentation methods utilized a Density Matching strategy by evaluating policies in terms of the test-time augmentation performance. In this paper, we theoretically and empirically demonstrated the inconsistency between the train and validation set of small-scale medical image datasets, referred to as in-domain sampling bias. Next, we demonstrated that the in-domain sampling bias might cause the inefficiency of Density Matching. To address the problem, an improved augmentation search strategy, named Augmented Density Matching, was proposed by randomly sampling policies from a prior distribution for training. Moreover, an efficient automatical machine learning(AutoML) algorithm was proposed by unifying the search on data augmentation and neural architecture. Experimental results indicated that the proposed methods outperformed state-of-the-art approaches on MedMNIST, a pioneering benchmark designed for AutoML in medical image analysis.

Is intelligence realized by connectionist or classicist? While connectionist approaches have achieved superhuman performance, there has been growing evidence that such task-specific superiority is particularly fragile in systematic generalization. This observation lies in the central debate between connectionist and classicist, wherein the latter continually advocates an algebraic treatment in cognitive architectures. In this work, we follow the classicist's call and propose a hybrid approach to improve systematic generalization in reasoning. Specifically, we showcase a prototype with algebraic representation for the abstract spatial-temporal reasoning task of Raven's Progressive Matrices (RPM) and present the ALgebra-Aware Neuro-Semi-Symbolic (ALANS) learner. The ALANS learner is motivated by abstract algebra and the representation theory. It consists of a neural visual perception frontend and an algebraic abstract reasoning backend: the frontend summarizes the visual information from object-based representation, while the backend transforms it into an algebraic structure and induces the hidden operator on the fly. The induced operator is later executed to predict the answer's representation, and the choice most similar to the prediction is selected as the solution. Extensive experiments show that by incorporating an algebraic treatment, the ALANS learner outperforms various pure connectionist models in domains requiring systematic generalization. We further show the generative nature of the learned algebraic representation; it can be decoded by isomorphism to generate an answer.

The fundamental challenge of drawing causal inference is that counterfactual outcomes are not fully observed for any unit. Furthermore, in observational studies, treatment assignment is likely to be confounded. Many statistical methods have emerged for causal inference under unconfoundedness conditions given pre-treatment covariates, including propensity score-based methods, prognostic score-based methods, and doubly robust methods. Unfortunately for applied researchers, there is no `one-size-fits-all' causal method that can perform optimally universally. In practice, causal methods are primarily evaluated quantitatively on handcrafted simulated data. Such data-generative procedures can be of limited value because they are typically stylized models of reality. They are simplified for tractability and lack the complexities of real-world data. For applied researchers, it is critical to understand how well a method performs for the data at hand. Our work introduces a deep generative model-based framework, Credence, to validate causal inference methods. The framework's novelty stems from its ability to generate synthetic data anchored at the empirical distribution for the observed sample, and therefore virtually indistinguishable from the latter. The approach allows the user to specify ground truth for the form and magnitude of causal effects and confounding bias as functions of covariates. Thus simulated data sets are used to evaluate the potential performance of various causal estimation methods when applied to data similar to the observed sample. We demonstrate Credence's ability to accurately assess the relative performance of causal estimation techniques in an extensive simulation study and two real-world data applications from Lalonde and Project STAR studies.

As a pivotal component to attaining generalizable solutions in human intelligence, reasoning provides great potential for reinforcement learning (RL) agents' generalization towards varied goals by summarizing part-to-whole arguments and discovering cause-and-effect relations. However, how to discover and represent causalities remains a huge gap that hinders the development of causal RL. In this paper, we augment Goal-Conditioned RL (GCRL) with Causal Graph (CG), a structure built upon the relation between objects and events. We novelly formulate the GCRL problem into variational likelihood maximization with CG as latent variables. To optimize the derived objective, we propose a framework with theoretical performance guarantees that alternates between two steps: using interventional data to estimate the posterior of CG; using CG to learn generalizable models and interpretable policies. Due to the lack of public benchmarks that verify generalization capability under reasoning, we design nine tasks and then empirically show the effectiveness of the proposed method against five baselines on these tasks. Further theoretical analysis shows that our performance improvement is attributed to the virtuous cycle of causal discovery, transition modeling, and policy training, which aligns with the experimental evidence in extensive ablation studies.

Understanding how machine learning models generalize to new environments is a critical part of their safe deployment. Recent work has proposed a variety of complexity measures that directly predict or theoretically bound the generalization capacity of a model. However, these methods rely on a strong set of assumptions that in practice are not always satisfied. Motivated by the limited settings in which existing measures can be applied, we propose a novel complexity measure based on the local manifold smoothness of a classifier. We define local manifold smoothness as a classifier's output sensitivity to perturbations in the manifold neighborhood around a given test point. Intuitively, a classifier that is less sensitive to these perturbations should generalize better. To estimate smoothness we sample points using data augmentation and measure the fraction of these points classified into the majority class. Our method only requires selecting a data augmentation method and makes no other assumptions about the model or data distributions, meaning it can be applied even in out-of-domain (OOD) settings where existing methods cannot. In experiments on robustness benchmarks in image classification, sentiment analysis, and natural language inference, we demonstrate a strong and robust correlation between our manifold smoothness measure and actual OOD generalization on over 3,000 models evaluated on over 100 train/test domain pairs.

The paper describes the MetroPT data set, an outcome of a Predictive Maintenance project with an urban metro public transportation service in Porto, Portugal. The data was collected between 2020 and 2022 that aimed to develop machine learning methods for online anomaly detection and failure prediction. By capturing several analogic sensor signals (pressure, temperature, current consumption), digital signals (control signals, discrete signals), and GPS information (latitude, longitude, and speed), we provide a framework that can be easily used and developed for the new machine learning methods. We believe this dataset contains some interesting characteristics and can be a good benchmark for predictive maintenance models.

We propose a novel method for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects based on the fused lasso. By first ordering samples based on the propensity or prognostic score, we match units from the treatment and control groups. We then run the fused lasso to obtain piecewise constant treatment effects with respect to the ordering defined by the score. Similar to the existing methods based on discretizing the score, our methods yields interpretable subgroup effects. However, the existing methods fixed the subgroup a priori, but our causal fused lasso forms data-adaptive subgroups. We show that the estimator consistently estimates the treatment effects conditional on the score under very general conditions on the covariates and treatment. We demonstrate the performance of our procedure using extensive experiments that show that it can outperform state-of-the-art methods.

In the domain generalization literature, a common objective is to learn representations independent of the domain after conditioning on the class label. We show that this objective is not sufficient: there exist counter-examples where a model fails to generalize to unseen domains even after satisfying class-conditional domain invariance. We formalize this observation through a structural causal model and show the importance of modeling within-class variations for generalization. Specifically, classes contain objects that characterize specific causal features, and domains can be interpreted as interventions on these objects that change non-causal features. We highlight an alternative condition: inputs across domains should have the same representation if they are derived from the same object. Based on this objective, we propose matching-based algorithms when base objects are observed (e.g., through data augmentation) and approximate the objective when objects are not observed (MatchDG). Our simple matching-based algorithms are competitive to prior work on out-of-domain accuracy for rotated MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, PACS, and Chest-Xray datasets. Our method MatchDG also recovers ground-truth object matches: on MNIST and Fashion-MNIST, top-10 matches from MatchDG have over 50% overlap with ground-truth matches.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

Graphical causal inference as pioneered by Judea Pearl arose from research on artificial intelligence (AI), and for a long time had little connection to the field of machine learning. This article discusses where links have been and should be established, introducing key concepts along the way. It argues that the hard open problems of machine learning and AI are intrinsically related to causality, and explains how the field is beginning to understand them.