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The concepts of sparsity, and regularised estimation, have proven useful in many high-dimensional statistical applications. Dynamic factor models (DFMs) provide a parsimonious approach to modelling high-dimensional time series, however, it is often hard to interpret the meaning of the latent factors. This paper formally introduces a class of sparse DFMs whereby the loading matrices are constrained to have few non-zero entries, thus increasing interpretability of factors. We present a regularised M-estimator for the model parameters, and construct an efficient expectation maximisation algorithm to enable estimation. Synthetic experiments demonstrate consistency in terms of estimating the loading structure, and superior predictive performance where a low-rank factor structure may be appropriate. The utility of the method is further illustrated in an application forecasting electricity consumption across a large set of smart meters.

In complex large-scale systems such as climate, important effects are caused by a combination of confounding processes that are not fully observable. The identification of sources from observations of system state is vital for attribution and prediction, which inform critical policy decisions. The difficulty of these types of inverse problems lies in the inability to isolate sources and the cost of simulating computational models. Surrogate models may enable the many-query algorithms required for source identification, but data challenges arise from high dimensionality of the state and source, limited ensembles of costly model simulations to train a surrogate model, and few and potentially noisy state observations for inversion due to measurement limitations. The influence of auxiliary processes adds an additional layer of uncertainty that further confounds source identification. We introduce a framework based on (1) calibrating deep neural network surrogates to the flow maps provided by an ensemble of simulations obtained by varying sources, and (2) using these surrogates in a Bayesian framework to identify sources from observations via optimization. Focusing on an atmospheric dispersion exemplar, we find that the expressive and computationally efficient nature of the deep neural network operator surrogates in appropriately reduced dimension allows for source identification with uncertainty quantification using limited data. Introducing a variable wind field as an auxiliary process, we find that a Bayesian approximation error approach is essential for reliable source inversion when uncertainty due to wind stresses the algorithm.

We present an extension of the linear sampling method for solving the sound-soft inverse acoustic scattering problem with randomly distributed point sources. The theoretical justification of our sampling method is based on the Helmholtz--Kirchhoff identity, the cross-correlation between measurements, and the volume and imaginary near-field operators, which we introduce and analyze. Implementations in MATLAB using boundary elements, the SVD, Tikhonov regularization, and Morozov's discrepancy principle are also discussed. We demonstrate the robustness and accuracy of our algorithms with several numerical experiments in two dimensions.

Multi-agent interactions are increasingly important in the context of reinforcement learning, and the theoretical foundations of policy gradient methods have attracted surging research interest. We investigate the global convergence of natural policy gradient (NPG) algorithms in multi-agent learning. We first show that vanilla NPG may not have parameter convergence, i.e., the convergence of the vector that parameterizes the policy, even when the costs are regularized (which enabled strong convergence guarantees in the policy space in the literature). This non-convergence of parameters leads to stability issues in learning, which becomes especially relevant in the function approximation setting, where we can only operate on low-dimensional parameters, instead of the high-dimensional policy. We then propose variants of the NPG algorithm, for several standard multi-agent learning scenarios: two-player zero-sum matrix and Markov games, and multi-player monotone games, with global last-iterate parameter convergence guarantees. We also generalize the results to certain function approximation settings. Note that in our algorithms, the agents take symmetric roles. Our results might also be of independent interest for solving nonconvex-nonconcave minimax optimization problems with certain structures. Simulations are also provided to corroborate our theoretical findings.

This paper considers the Cauchy problem for the nonlinear dynamic string equation of Kirchhoff-type with time-varying coefficients. The objective of this work is to develop a temporal discretization algorithm capable of approximating a solution to this initial-boundary value problem. To this end, a symmetric three-layer semi-discrete scheme is employed with respect to the temporal variable, wherein the value of a nonlinear term is evaluated at the middle node point. This approach enables the numerical solutions per temporal step to be obtained by inverting the linear operators, yielding a system of second-order linear ordinary differential equations. Local convergence of the proposed scheme is established, and it achieves quadratic convergence concerning the step size of the discretization of time on the local temporal interval.

Embedding discrete solvers as differentiable layers has given modern deep learning architectures combinatorial expressivity and discrete reasoning capabilities. The derivative of these solvers is zero or undefined, therefore a meaningful replacement is crucial for effective gradient-based learning. Prior works rely on smoothing the solver with input perturbations, relaxing the solver to continuous problems, or interpolating the loss landscape with techniques that typically require additional solver calls, introduce extra hyper-parameters, or compromise performance. We propose a principled approach to exploit the geometry of the discrete solution space to treat the solver as a negative identity on the backward pass and further provide a theoretical justification. Our experiments demonstrate that such a straightforward hyper-parameter-free approach is able to compete with previous more complex methods on numerous experiments such as backpropagation through discrete samplers, deep graph matching, and image retrieval. Furthermore, we substitute the previously proposed problem-specific and label-dependent margin with a generic regularization procedure that prevents cost collapse and increases robustness.

The flocking motion control is concerned with managing the possible conflicts between local and team objectives of multi-agent systems. The overall control process guides the agents while monitoring the flock-cohesiveness and localization. The underlying mechanisms may degrade due to overlooking the unmodeled uncertainties associated with the flock dynamics and formation. On another side, the efficiencies of the various control designs rely on how quickly they can adapt to different dynamic situations in real-time. An online model-free policy iteration mechanism is developed here to guide a flock of agents to follow an independent command generator over a time-varying graph topology. The strength of connectivity between any two agents or the graph edge weight is decided using a position adjacency dependent function. An online recursive least squares approach is adopted to tune the guidance strategies without knowing the dynamics of the agents or those of the command generator. It is compared with another reinforcement learning approach from the literature which is based on a value iteration technique. The simulation results of the policy iteration mechanism revealed fast learning and convergence behaviors with less computational effort.

In this paper, a new feature selection algorithm, called SFE (Simple, Fast, and Efficient), is proposed for high-dimensional datasets. The SFE algorithm performs its search process using a search agent and two operators: non-selection and selection. It comprises two phases: exploration and exploitation. In the exploration phase, the non-selection operator performs a global search in the entire problem search space for the irrelevant, redundant, trivial, and noisy features, and changes the status of the features from selected mode to non-selected mode. In the exploitation phase, the selection operator searches the problem search space for the features with a high impact on the classification results, and changes the status of the features from non-selected mode to selected mode. The proposed SFE is successful in feature selection from high-dimensional datasets. However, after reducing the dimensionality of a dataset, its performance cannot be increased significantly. In these situations, an evolutionary computational method could be used to find a more efficient subset of features in the new and reduced search space. To overcome this issue, this paper proposes a hybrid algorithm, SFE-PSO (particle swarm optimization) to find an optimal feature subset. The efficiency and effectiveness of the SFE and the SFE-PSO for feature selection are compared on 40 high-dimensional datasets. Their performances were compared with six recently proposed feature selection algorithms. The results obtained indicate that the two proposed algorithms significantly outperform the other algorithms, and can be used as efficient and effective algorithms in selecting features from high-dimensional datasets.

Complex-variable matrix optimization problems (CMOPs) in Frobenius norm emerge in many areas of applied mathematics and engineering applications. In this letter, we focus on solving CMOPs by iterative methods. For unconstrained CMOPs, we prove that the gradient descent (GD) method is feasible in the complex domain. Further, in view of reducing the computation complexity, constrained CMOPs are solved by a projection gradient descent (PGD) method. The theoretical analysis shows that the PGD method maintains a good convergence in the complex domain. Experiment results well support the theoretical analysis.

This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of stochastic systems affected by external manipulation (interventions). This thesis contributes to the research areas concerning the estimation of causal effects, causal structure learning, and distributionally robust (out-of-distribution generalizing) prediction methods. We present novel and consistent linear and non-linear causal effects estimators in instrumental variable settings that employ data-dependent mean squared prediction error regularization. Our proposed estimators show, in certain settings, mean squared error improvements compared to both canonical and state-of-the-art estimators. We show that recent research on distributionally robust prediction methods has connections to well-studied estimators from econometrics. This connection leads us to prove that general K-class estimators possess distributional robustness properties. We, furthermore, propose a general framework for distributional robustness with respect to intervention-induced distributions. In this framework, we derive sufficient conditions for the identifiability of distributionally robust prediction methods and present impossibility results that show the necessity of several of these conditions. We present a new structure learning method applicable in additive noise models with directed trees as causal graphs. We prove consistency in a vanishing identifiability setup and provide a method for testing substructure hypotheses with asymptotic family-wise error control that remains valid post-selection. Finally, we present heuristic ideas for learning summary graphs of nonlinear time-series models.