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Equipping predicted segmentation with calibrated uncertainty is essential for safety-critical applications. In this work, we focus on capturing the data-inherent uncertainty (aka aleatoric uncertainty) in segmentation, typically when ambiguities exist in input images. Due to the high-dimensional output space and potential multiple modes in segmenting ambiguous images, it remains challenging to predict well-calibrated uncertainty for segmentation. To tackle this problem, we propose a novel mixture of stochastic experts (MoSE) model, where each expert network estimates a distinct mode of the aleatoric uncertainty and a gating network predicts the probabilities of an input image being segmented in those modes. This yields an efficient two-level uncertainty representation. To learn the model, we develop a Wasserstein-like loss that directly minimizes the distribution distance between the MoSE and ground truth annotations. The loss can easily integrate traditional segmentation quality measures and be efficiently optimized via constraint relaxation. We validate our method on the LIDC-IDRI dataset and a modified multimodal Cityscapes dataset. Results demonstrate that our method achieves the state-of-the-art or competitive performance on all metrics.

Many large-scale recommender systems consist of two stages. The first stage efficiently screens the complete pool of items for a small subset of promising candidates, from which the second-stage model curates the final recommendations. In this paper, we investigate how to ensure group fairness to the items in this two-stage architecture. In particular, we find that existing first-stage recommenders might select an irrecoverably unfair set of candidates such that there is no hope for the second-stage recommender to deliver fair recommendations. To this end, motivated by recent advances in uncertainty quantification, we propose two threshold-policy selection rules that can provide distribution-free and finite-sample guarantees on fairness in first-stage recommenders. More concretely, given any relevance model of queries and items and a point-wise lower confidence bound on the expected number of relevant items for each threshold-policy, the two rules find near-optimal sets of candidates that contain enough relevant items in expectation from each group of items. To instantiate the rules, we demonstrate how to derive such confidence bounds from potentially partial and biased user feedback data, which are abundant in many large-scale recommender systems. In addition, we provide both finite-sample and asymptotic analyses of how close the two threshold selection rules are to the optimal thresholds. Beyond this theoretical analysis, we show empirically that these two rules can consistently select enough relevant items from each group while minimizing the size of the candidate sets for a wide range of settings.

Dynamic neural networks are a recent technique that promises a remedy for the increasing size of modern deep learning models by dynamically adapting their computational cost to the difficulty of the input samples. In this way, the model can adjust to a limited computational budget. However, the poor quality of uncertainty estimates in deep learning models makes it difficult to distinguish between hard and easy samples. To address this challenge, we present a computationally efficient approach for post-hoc uncertainty quantification in dynamic neural networks. We show that adequately quantifying and accounting for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty through a probabilistic treatment of the last layers improves the predictive performance and aids decision-making when determining the computational budget. In the experiments, we show improvements on CIFAR-100 and ImageNet in terms of accuracy, capturing uncertainty, and calibration error.

This paper proposes a paradigm of uncertainty injection for training deep learning model to solve robust optimization problems. The majority of existing studies on deep learning focus on the model learning capability, while assuming the quality and accuracy of the inputs data can be guaranteed. However, in realistic applications of deep learning for solving optimization problems, the accuracy of inputs, which are the problem parameters in this case, plays a large role. This is because, in many situations, it is often costly or sometime impossible to obtain the problem parameters accurately, and correspondingly, it is highly desirable to develop learning algorithms that can account for the uncertainties in the input and produce solutions that are robust against these uncertainties. This paper presents a novel uncertainty injection scheme for training machine learning models that are capable of implicitly accounting for the uncertainties and producing statistically robust solutions. We further identify the wireless communications as an application field where uncertainties are prevalent in problem parameters such as the channel coefficients. We show the effectiveness of the proposed training scheme in two applications: the robust power loading for multiuser multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) downlink transmissions; and the robust power control for device-to-device (D2D) networks.

Conformal prediction is a powerful distribution-free tool for uncertainty quantification, establishing valid prediction intervals with finite-sample guarantees. To produce valid intervals which are also adaptive to the difficulty of each instance, a common approach is to compute normalized nonconformity scores on a separate calibration set. Self-supervised learning has been effectively utilized in many domains to learn general representations for downstream predictors. However, the use of self-supervision beyond model pretraining and representation learning has been largely unexplored. In this work, we investigate how self-supervised pretext tasks can improve the quality of the conformal regressors, specifically by improving the adaptability of conformal intervals. We train an auxiliary model with a self-supervised pretext task on top of an existing predictive model and use the self-supervised error as an additional feature to estimate nonconformity scores. We empirically demonstrate the benefit of the additional information using both synthetic and real data on the efficiency (width), deficit, and excess of conformal prediction intervals.

Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.

Embedding models for deterministic Knowledge Graphs (KG) have been extensively studied, with the purpose of capturing latent semantic relations between entities and incorporating the structured knowledge into machine learning. However, there are many KGs that model uncertain knowledge, which typically model the inherent uncertainty of relations facts with a confidence score, and embedding such uncertain knowledge represents an unresolved challenge. The capturing of uncertain knowledge will benefit many knowledge-driven applications such as question answering and semantic search by providing more natural characterization of the knowledge. In this paper, we propose a novel uncertain KG embedding model UKGE, which aims to preserve both structural and uncertainty information of relation facts in the embedding space. Unlike previous models that characterize relation facts with binary classification techniques, UKGE learns embeddings according to the confidence scores of uncertain relation facts. To further enhance the precision of UKGE, we also introduce probabilistic soft logic to infer confidence scores for unseen relation facts during training. We propose and evaluate two variants of UKGE based on different learning objectives. Experiments are conducted on three real-world uncertain KGs via three tasks, i.e. confidence prediction, relation fact ranking, and relation fact classification. UKGE shows effectiveness in capturing uncertain knowledge by achieving promising results on these tasks, and consistently outperforms baselines on these tasks.

Many current applications use recommendations in order to modify the natural user behavior, such as to increase the number of sales or the time spent on a website. This results in a gap between the final recommendation objective and the classical setup where recommendation candidates are evaluated by their coherence with past user behavior, by predicting either the missing entries in the user-item matrix, or the most likely next event. To bridge this gap, we optimize a recommendation policy for the task of increasing the desired outcome versus the organic user behavior. We show this is equivalent to learning to predict recommendation outcomes under a fully random recommendation policy. To this end, we propose a new domain adaptation algorithm that learns from logged data containing outcomes from a biased recommendation policy and predicts recommendation outcomes according to random exposure. We compare our method against state-of-the-art factorization methods, in addition to new approaches of causal recommendation and show significant improvements.

Traditional methods for link prediction can be categorized into three main types: graph structure feature-based, latent feature-based, and explicit feature-based. Graph structure feature methods leverage some handcrafted node proximity scores, e.g., common neighbors, to estimate the likelihood of links. Latent feature methods rely on factorizing networks' matrix representations to learn an embedding for each node. Explicit feature methods train a machine learning model on two nodes' explicit attributes. Each of the three types of methods has its unique merits. In this paper, we propose SEAL (learning from Subgraphs, Embeddings, and Attributes for Link prediction), a new framework for link prediction which combines the power of all the three types into a single graph neural network (GNN). GNN is a new type of neural network which directly accepts graphs as input and outputs their labels. In SEAL, the input to the GNN is a local subgraph around each target link. We prove theoretically that our local subgraphs also reserve a great deal of high-order graph structure features related to link existence. Another key feature is that our GNN can naturally incorporate latent features and explicit features. It is achieved by concatenating node embeddings (latent features) and node attributes (explicit features) in the node information matrix for each subgraph, thus combining the three types of features to enhance GNN learning. Through extensive experiments, SEAL shows unprecedentedly strong performance against a wide range of baseline methods, including various link prediction heuristics and network embedding methods.

Many recent state-of-the-art recommender systems such as D-ATT, TransNet and DeepCoNN exploit reviews for representation learning. This paper proposes a new neural architecture for recommendation with reviews. Our model operates on a multi-hierarchical paradigm and is based on the intuition that not all reviews are created equal, i.e., only a select few are important. The importance, however, should be dynamically inferred depending on the current target. To this end, we propose a review-by-review pointer-based learning scheme that extracts important reviews, subsequently matching them in a word-by-word fashion. This enables not only the most informative reviews to be utilized for prediction but also a deeper word-level interaction. Our pointer-based method operates with a novel gumbel-softmax based pointer mechanism that enables the incorporation of discrete vectors within differentiable neural architectures. Our pointer mechanism is co-attentive in nature, learning pointers which are co-dependent on user-item relationships. Finally, we propose a multi-pointer learning scheme that learns to combine multiple views of interactions between user and item. Overall, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model via extensive experiments on \textbf{24} benchmark datasets from Amazon and Yelp. Empirical results show that our approach significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art, with up to 19% and 71% relative improvement when compared to TransNet and DeepCoNN respectively. We study the behavior of our multi-pointer learning mechanism, shedding light on evidence aggregation patterns in review-based recommender systems.