We develop new semiparametric methods for estimating treatment effects. We focus on settings where the outcome distributions may be thick tailed, where treatment effects may be small, where sample sizes are large and where assignment is completely random. This setting is of particular interest in recent online experimentation. We propose using parametric models for the treatment effects, leading to semiparametric models for the outcome distributions. We derive the semiparametric efficiency bound for the treatment effects for this setting, and propose efficient estimators. In the leading case with constant quantile treatment effects one of the proposed efficient estimators has an interesting interpretation as a weighted average of quantile treatment effects, with the weights proportional to minus the second derivative of the log of the density of the potential outcomes. Our analysis also suggests an extension of Huber's model and trimmed mean to include asymmetry.
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Accurately assessing the potential value of new sensor observations is a critical aspect of planning for active perception. This task is particularly challenging when reasoning about high-level scene understanding using measurements from vision-based neural networks. Due to appearance-based reasoning, the measurements are susceptible to several environmental effects such as the presence of occluders, variations in lighting conditions, and redundancy of information due to similarity in appearance between nearby viewpoints. To address this, we propose a new active perception framework incorporating an arbitrary number of perceptual effects in planning and fusion. Our method models the correlation with the environment by a set of general functions termed perceptual factors to construct a perceptual map, which quantifies the aggregated influence of the environment on candidate viewpoints. This information is seamlessly incorporated into the planning and fusion processes by adjusting the uncertainty associated with measurements to weigh their contributions. We evaluate our perceptual maps in a simulated environment that reproduces environmental conditions common in robotics applications. Our results show that, by accounting for environmental effects within our perceptual maps, we improve in the state estimation by correctly selecting the viewpoints and considering the measurement noise correctly when affected by environmental factors. We furthermore deploy our approach on a ground robot to showcase its applicability for real-world active perception missions.
We consider a voting model, where a number of candidates need to be selected subject to certain feasibility constraints. The model generalises committee elections (where there is a single constraint on the number of candidates that need to be selected), various elections with diversity constraints, the model of public decisions (where decisions needs to be taken on a number of independent issues), and the model of collective scheduling. A critical property of voting is that it should be fair -- not only to individuals but also to groups of voters with similar opinions on the subject of the vote; in other words, the outcome of an election should proportionally reflect the voters' preferences. We formulate axioms of proportionality in this general model. Our axioms do not require predefining groups of voters; to the contrary, we ensure that the opinion of every subset of voters whose preferences are cohesive-enough are taken into account to the extent that is proportional to the size of the subset. Our axioms generalise the strongest known satisfiable axioms for the more specific models. We explain how to adapt two prominent committee election rules, Proportional Approval Voting (PAV) and Phragm\'{e}n Sequential Rule, as well as the concept of stable-priceability to our general model. The two rules satisfy our proportionality axioms if and only if the feasibility constraints are matroids.
Numerous approaches have attempted to interpret deep neural networks (DNNs) by attributing the prediction of DNN to its input features. One of the well-studied attribution methods is Integrated Gradients (IG). Specifically, the choice of baselines for IG is a critical consideration for generating meaningful and unbiased explanations for model predictions in different scenarios. However, current practice of exploiting a single baseline fails to fulfill this ambition, thus demanding multiple baselines. Fortunately, the inherent connection between IG and Aumann-Shapley Value forms a unique perspective to rethink the design of baselines. Under certain hypothesis, we theoretically analyse that a set of baseline aligns with the coalitions in Shapley Value. Thus, we propose a novel baseline construction method called Shapley Integrated Gradients (SIG) that searches for a set of baselines by proportional sampling to partly simulate the computation path of Shapley Value. Simulations on GridWorld show that SIG approximates the proportion of Shapley Values. Furthermore, experiments conducted on various image tasks demonstrate that compared to IG using other baseline methods, SIG exhibits an improved estimation of feature's contribution, offers more consistent explanations across diverse applications, and is generic to distinct data types or instances with insignificant computational overhead.
As large-scale training regimes have gained popularity, the use of pretrained models for downstream tasks has become common practice in machine learning. While pretraining has been shown to enhance the performance of models in practice, the transfer of robustness properties from pretraining to downstream tasks remains poorly understood. In this study, we demonstrate that the robustness of a linear predictor on downstream tasks can be constrained by the robustness of its underlying representation, regardless of the protocol used for pretraining. We prove (i) a bound on the loss that holds independent of any downstream task, as well as (ii) a criterion for robust classification in particular. We validate our theoretical results in practical applications, show how our results can be used for calibrating expectations of downstream robustness, and when our results are useful for optimal transfer learning. Taken together, our results offer an initial step towards characterizing the requirements of the representation function for reliable post-adaptation performance.
Recent years have shown an increased development of methods for justifying the predictions of neural networks through visual explanations. These explanations usually take the form of heatmaps which assign a saliency (or relevance) value to each pixel of the input image that expresses how relevant the pixel is for the prediction of a label. Complementing this development, evaluation methods have been proposed to assess the "goodness" of such explanations. On the one hand, some of these methods rely on synthetic datasets. However, this introduces the weakness of having limited guarantees regarding their applicability on more realistic settings. On the other hand, some methods rely on metrics for objective evaluation. However the level to which some of these evaluation methods perform with respect to each other is uncertain. Taking this into account, we conduct a comprehensive study on a subset of the ImageNet-1k validation set where we evaluate a number of different commonly-used explanation methods following a set of evaluation methods. We complement our study with sanity checks on the studied evaluation methods as a means to investigate their reliability and the impact of characteristics of the explanations on the evaluation methods. Results of our study suggest that there is a lack of coherency on the grading provided by some of the considered evaluation methods. Moreover, we have identified some characteristics of the explanations, e.g. sparsity, which can have a significant effect on the performance.
The chain graph model admits both undirected and directed edges in one graph, where symmetric conditional dependencies are encoded via undirected edges and asymmetric causal relations are encoded via directed edges. Though frequently encountered in practice, the chain graph model has been largely under investigated in literature, possibly due to the lack of identifiability conditions between undirected and directed edges. In this paper, we first establish a set of novel identifiability conditions for the Gaussian chain graph model, exploiting a low rank plus sparse decomposition of the precision matrix. Further, an efficient learning algorithm is built upon the identifiability conditions to fully recover the chain graph structure. Theoretical analysis on the proposed method is conducted, assuring its asymptotic consistency in recovering the exact chain graph structure. The advantage of the proposed method is also supported by numerical experiments on both simulated examples and a real application on the Standard & Poor 500 index data.
As artificial intelligence (AI) models continue to scale up, they are becoming more capable and integrated into various forms of decision-making systems. For models involved in moral decision-making, also known as artificial moral agents (AMA), interpretability provides a way to trust and understand the agent's internal reasoning mechanisms for effective use and error correction. In this paper, we provide an overview of this rapidly-evolving sub-field of AI interpretability, introduce the concept of the Minimum Level of Interpretability (MLI) and recommend an MLI for various types of agents, to aid their safe deployment in real-world settings.
Understanding causality helps to structure interventions to achieve specific goals and enables predictions under interventions. With the growing importance of learning causal relationships, causal discovery tasks have transitioned from using traditional methods to infer potential causal structures from observational data to the field of pattern recognition involved in deep learning. The rapid accumulation of massive data promotes the emergence of causal search methods with brilliant scalability. Existing summaries of causal discovery methods mainly focus on traditional methods based on constraints, scores and FCMs, there is a lack of perfect sorting and elaboration for deep learning-based methods, also lacking some considers and exploration of causal discovery methods from the perspective of variable paradigms. Therefore, we divide the possible causal discovery tasks into three types according to the variable paradigm and give the definitions of the three tasks respectively, define and instantiate the relevant datasets for each task and the final causal model constructed at the same time, then reviews the main existing causal discovery methods for different tasks. Finally, we propose some roadmaps from different perspectives for the current research gaps in the field of causal discovery and point out future research directions.
In contrast to batch learning where all training data is available at once, continual learning represents a family of methods that accumulate knowledge and learn continuously with data available in sequential order. Similar to the human learning process with the ability of learning, fusing, and accumulating new knowledge coming at different time steps, continual learning is considered to have high practical significance. Hence, continual learning has been studied in various artificial intelligence tasks. In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of the recent progress of continual learning in computer vision. In particular, the works are grouped by their representative techniques, including regularization, knowledge distillation, memory, generative replay, parameter isolation, and a combination of the above techniques. For each category of these techniques, both its characteristics and applications in computer vision are presented. At the end of this overview, several subareas, where continuous knowledge accumulation is potentially helpful while continual learning has not been well studied, are discussed.
Deep neural networks have revolutionized many machine learning tasks in power systems, ranging from pattern recognition to signal processing. The data in these tasks is typically represented in Euclidean domains. Nevertheless, there is an increasing number of applications in power systems, where data are collected from non-Euclidean domains and represented as the graph-structured data with high dimensional features and interdependency among nodes. The complexity of graph-structured data has brought significant challenges to the existing deep neural networks defined in Euclidean domains. Recently, many studies on extending deep neural networks for graph-structured data in power systems have emerged. In this paper, a comprehensive overview of graph neural networks (GNNs) in power systems is proposed. Specifically, several classical paradigms of GNNs structures (e.g., graph convolutional networks, graph recurrent neural networks, graph attention networks, graph generative networks, spatial-temporal graph convolutional networks, and hybrid forms of GNNs) are summarized, and key applications in power systems such as fault diagnosis, power prediction, power flow calculation, and data generation are reviewed in detail. Furthermore, main issues and some research trends about the applications of GNNs in power systems are discussed.
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