Identifiability of discrete statistical models with latent variables is known to be challenging to study, yet crucial to a model's interpretability and reliability. This work presents a general algebraic technique to investigate identifiability of complicated discrete models with latent and graphical components. Specifically, motivated by diagnostic tests collecting multivariate categorical data, we focus on discrete models with multiple binary latent variables. In the considered model, the latent variables can have arbitrary dependencies among themselves while the latent-to-observed measurement graph takes a "star-forest" shape. We establish necessary and sufficient graphical criteria for identifiability, and reveal an interesting and perhaps surprising phenomenon of blessing-of-dependence geometry: under the minimal conditions for generic identifiability, the parameters are identifiable if and only if the latent variables are not statistically independent. Thanks to this theory, we can perform formal hypothesis tests of identifiability in the boundary case by testing certain marginal independence of the observed variables. Our results give new understanding of statistical properties of graphical models with latent variables. They also entail useful implications for designing diagnostic tests or surveys that measure binary latent traits.
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Making causal inferences from observational studies can be challenging when confounders are missing not at random. In such cases, identifying causal effects is often not guaranteed. Motivated by a real example, we consider a treatment-independent missingness assumption under which we establish the identification of causal effects when confounders are missing not at random. We propose a weighted estimating equation (WEE) approach for estimating model parameters and introduce three estimators for the average causal effect, based on regression, propensity score weighting, and doubly robust estimation. We evaluate the performance of these estimators through simulations, and provide a real data analysis to illustrate our proposed method.
A model is considered well-calibrated when its probability estimate aligns with the actual likelihood of the output being correct. Calibrating language models (LMs) is crucial, as it plays a vital role in detecting and mitigating hallucinations, a common issue of LMs, as well as building more trustworthy models. Yet, popular neural model calibration techniques are not well-suited for LMs due to their lack of flexibility in discerning answer correctness and their high computational costs. For instance, post-processing methods like temperature scaling are often unable to reorder the candidate generations. Moreover, training-based methods require finetuning the entire model, which is impractical due to the increasing sizes of modern LMs. In this paper, we present LitCab, a lightweight calibration mechanism consisting of a single linear layer taking the input text representation and manipulateing the LM output logits. LitCab improves model calibration by only adding < 2% of the original model parameters. For evaluation, we construct CaT, a benchmark consisting of 7 text generation tasks, covering responses ranging from short phrases to paragraphs. We test LitCab with Llama2-7B, where it improves calibration across all tasks, by reducing the average ECE score by 20%. We further conduct a comprehensive evaluation with 7 popular open-sourced LMs from GPT and LLaMA families, yielding the following key findings: (1) Larger models within the same family exhibit better calibration on tasks with short generation tasks, but not necessarily for longer ones. (2) GPT-family models show superior calibration compared to LLaMA, Llama2 and Vicuna models despite having much fewer parameters. (3) Finetuning pretrained model (e.g., LLaMA) with samples of limited purpose (e.g., conversations) may lead to worse calibration, highlighting the importance of finetuning setups for calibrating LMs.
Convergence and compactness properties of approximate solutions to elliptic partial differential computed with the hybridized discontinuous Galerkin (HDG) are established. While it is known that solutions computed using the HDG scheme converge at optimal rates to smooth solutions, this does not establish the stability of the method or convergence to solutions with minimal regularity. The compactness and convergence results show that the HDG scheme can be utilized for the solution of nonlinear problems and linear problems with non-smooth coefficients on domains with reentrant corners.
Distributional reinforcement learning algorithms have attempted to utilize estimated uncertainty for exploration, such as optimism in the face of uncertainty. However, using the estimated variance for optimistic exploration may cause biased data collection and hinder convergence or performance. In this paper, we present a novel distributional reinforcement learning algorithm that selects actions by randomizing risk criterion to avoid one-sided tendency on risk. We provide a perturbed distributional Bellman optimality operator by distorting the risk measure and prove the convergence and optimality of the proposed method with the weaker contraction property. Our theoretical results support that the proposed method does not fall into biased exploration and is guaranteed to converge to an optimal return. Finally, we empirically show that our method outperforms other existing distribution-based algorithms in various environments including Atari 55 games.
Sentiment analysis is a well-established natural language processing task, with sentiment polarity classification being one of its most popular and representative tasks. However, despite the success of pre-trained language models in this area, they often fall short of capturing the broader complexities of sentiment analysis. To address this issue, we propose a new task called Sentiment and Opinion Understanding of Language (SOUL). SOUL aims to evaluate sentiment understanding through two subtasks: Review Comprehension (RC) and Justification Generation (JG). RC seeks to validate statements that focus on subjective information based on a review text, while JG requires models to provide explanations for their sentiment predictions. To enable comprehensive evaluation, we annotate a new dataset comprising 15,028 statements from 3,638 reviews. Experimental results indicate that SOUL is a challenging task for both small and large language models, with a performance gap of up to 27% when compared to human performance. Furthermore, evaluations conducted with both human experts and GPT-4 highlight the limitations of the small language model in generating reasoning-based justifications. These findings underscore the challenging nature of the SOUL task for existing models, emphasizing the need for further advancements in sentiment analysis to address its complexities. The new dataset and code are available at //github.com/DAMO-NLP-SG/SOUL.
Hierarchical federated learning (HFL) has demonstrated promising scalability advantages over the traditional "star-topology" architecture-based federated learning (FL). However, HFL still imposes significant computation, communication, and storage burdens on the edge, especially when training a large-scale model over resource-constrained Internet of Things (IoT) devices. In this paper, we propose hierarchical independent submodel training (HIST), a new FL methodology that aims to address these issues in hierarchical settings. The key idea behind HIST is a hierarchical version of model partitioning, where we partition the global model into disjoint submodels in each round, and distribute them across different cells, so that each cell is responsible for training only one partition of the full model. This enables each client to save computation/storage costs while alleviating the communication loads throughout the hierarchy. We characterize the convergence behavior of HIST for non-convex loss functions under mild assumptions, showing the impact of several attributes (e.g., number of cells, local and global aggregation frequency) on the performance-efficiency tradeoff. Finally, through numerical experiments, we verify that HIST is able to save communication costs by a wide margin while achieving the same target testing accuracy.
Research in psychopathology has shown that, at an aggregate level, the patterns of emotional change over time -- emotion dynamics -- are indicators of one's mental health. One's patterns of emotion change have traditionally been determined through self-reports of emotions; however, there are known issues with accuracy, bias, and convenience. Recent approaches to determining emotion dynamics from one's everyday utterances, addresses many of these concerns, but it is not yet known whether these measures of utterance emotion dynamics (UED) correlate with mental health diagnoses. Here, for the first time, we study the relationship between tweet emotion dynamics and mental health disorders. We find that each of the UED metrics studied varied by the user's self-disclosed diagnosis. For example: average valence was significantly higher (i.e., more positive text) in the control group compared to users with ADHD, MDD, and PTSD. Valence variability was significantly lower in the control group compared to ADHD, depression, bipolar disorder, MDD, PTSD, and OCD but not PPD. Rise and recovery rates of valence also exhibited significant differences from the control. This work provides important early evidence for how linguistic cues pertaining to emotion dynamics can play a crucial role as biosocial markers for mental illnesses and aid in the understanding, diagnosis, and management of mental health disorders.
High sample complexity has long been a challenge for RL. On the other hand, humans learn to perform tasks not only from interaction or demonstrations, but also by reading unstructured text documents, e.g., instruction manuals. Instruction manuals and wiki pages are among the most abundant data that could inform agents of valuable features and policies or task-specific environmental dynamics and reward structures. Therefore, we hypothesize that the ability to utilize human-written instruction manuals to assist learning policies for specific tasks should lead to a more efficient and better-performing agent. We propose the Read and Reward framework. Read and Reward speeds up RL algorithms on Atari games by reading manuals released by the Atari game developers. Our framework consists of a QA Extraction module that extracts and summarizes relevant information from the manual and a Reasoning module that evaluates object-agent interactions based on information from the manual. An auxiliary reward is then provided to a standard A2C RL agent, when interaction is detected. Experimentally, various RL algorithms obtain significant improvement in performance and training speed when assisted by our design.
Graphs are used widely to model complex systems, and detecting anomalies in a graph is an important task in the analysis of complex systems. Graph anomalies are patterns in a graph that do not conform to normal patterns expected of the attributes and/or structures of the graph. In recent years, graph neural networks (GNNs) have been studied extensively and have successfully performed difficult machine learning tasks in node classification, link prediction, and graph classification thanks to the highly expressive capability via message passing in effectively learning graph representations. To solve the graph anomaly detection problem, GNN-based methods leverage information about the graph attributes (or features) and/or structures to learn to score anomalies appropriately. In this survey, we review the recent advances made in detecting graph anomalies using GNN models. Specifically, we summarize GNN-based methods according to the graph type (i.e., static and dynamic), the anomaly type (i.e., node, edge, subgraph, and whole graph), and the network architecture (e.g., graph autoencoder, graph convolutional network). To the best of our knowledge, this survey is the first comprehensive review of graph anomaly detection methods based on GNNs.
The existence of representative datasets is a prerequisite of many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, the subsequent application of these models often involves scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. The reasons for this are manifold and range from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable use of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is a huge challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches, and eventually to increase the generalization capability of these models. Furthermore, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-based models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories integration, extraction and conformity. Special attention is given to applications in the field of autonomous driving.
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