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Gaussian processes have become a promising tool for various safety-critical settings, since the posterior variance can be used to directly estimate the model error and quantify risk. However, state-of-the-art techniques for safety-critical settings hinge on the assumption that the kernel hyperparameters are known, which does not apply in general. To mitigate this, we introduce robust Gaussian process uniform error bounds in settings with unknown hyperparameters. Our approach computes a confidence region in the space of hyperparameters, which enables us to obtain a probabilistic upper bound for the model error of a Gaussian process with arbitrary hyperparameters. We do not require to know any bounds for the hyperparameters a priori, which is an assumption commonly found in related work. Instead, we are able to derive bounds from data in an intuitive fashion. We additionally employ the proposed technique to derive performance guarantees for a class of learning-based control problems. Experiments show that the bound performs significantly better than vanilla and fully Bayesian Gaussian processes.

The seminal paper by Mazumdar and Saha \cite{MS17a} introduced an extensive line of work on clustering with noisy queries. Yet, despite significant progress on the problem, the proposed methods depend crucially on knowing the exact probabilities of errors of the underlying fully-random oracle. In this work, we develop robust learning methods that tolerate general semi-random noise obtaining qualitatively the same guarantees as the best possible methods in the fully-random model. More specifically, given a set of $n$ points with an unknown underlying partition, we are allowed to query pairs of points $u,v$ to check if they are in the same cluster, but with probability $p$, the answer may be adversarially chosen. We show that information theoretically $O\left(\frac{nk \log n} {(1-2p)^2}\right)$ queries suffice to learn any cluster of sufficiently large size. Our main result is a computationally efficient algorithm that can identify large clusters with $O\left(\frac{nk \log n} {(1-2p)^2}\right) + \text{poly}\left(\log n, k, \frac{1}{1-2p} \right)$ queries, matching the guarantees of the best known algorithms in the fully-random model. As a corollary of our approach, we develop the first parameter-free algorithm for the fully-random model, answering an open question by \cite{MS17a}.

Since out-of-distribution generalization is a generally ill-posed problem, various proxy targets (e.g., calibration, adversarial robustness, algorithmic corruptions, invariance across shifts) were studied across different research programs resulting in different recommendations. While sharing the same aspirational goal, these approaches have never been tested under the same experimental conditions on real data. In this paper, we take a unified view of previous work, highlighting message discrepancies that we address empirically, and providing recommendations on how to measure the robustness of a model and how to improve it. To this end, we collect 172 publicly available dataset pairs for training and out-of-distribution evaluation of accuracy, calibration error, adversarial attacks, environment invariance, and synthetic corruptions. We fine-tune over 31k networks, from nine different architectures in the many- and few-shot setting. Our findings confirm that in- and out-of-distribution accuracies tend to increase jointly, but show that their relation is largely dataset-dependent, and in general more nuanced and more complex than posited by previous, smaller scale studies.

Learning from previously collected datasets of expert data offers the promise of acquiring robotic policies without unsafe and costly online explorations. However, a major challenge is a distributional shift between the states in the training dataset and the ones visited by the learned policy at the test time. While prior works mainly studied the distribution shift caused by the policy during the offline training, the problem of recovering from out-of-distribution states at the deployment time is not very well studied yet. We alleviate the distributional shift at the deployment time by introducing a recovery policy that brings the agent back to the training manifold whenever it steps out of the in-distribution states, e.g., due to an external perturbation. The recovery policy relies on an approximation of the training data density and a learned equivariant mapping that maps visual observations into a latent space in which translations correspond to the robot actions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method through several manipulation experiments on a real robotic platform. Our results show that the recovery policy enables the agent to complete tasks while the behavioral cloning alone fails because of the distributional shift problem.

We consider the problem of reducing the dimensions of parameters and data in non-Gaussian Bayesian inference problems. Our goal is to identify an "informed" subspace of the parameters and an "informative" subspace of the data so that a high-dimensional inference problem can be approximately reformulated in low-to-moderate dimensions, thereby improving the computational efficiency of many inference techniques. To do so, we exploit gradient evaluations of the log-likelihood function. Furthermore, we use an information-theoretic analysis to derive a bound on the posterior error due to parameter and data dimension reduction. This bound relies on logarithmic Sobolev inequalities, and it reveals the appropriate dimensions of the reduced variables. We compare our method with classical dimension reduction techniques, such as principal component analysis and canonical correlation analysis, on applications ranging from mechanics to image processing.

Rule set learning has long been studied and has recently been frequently revisited due to the need for interpretable models. Still, existing methods have several shortcomings: 1) most recent methods require a binary feature matrix as input, while learning rules directly from numeric variables is understudied; 2) existing methods impose orders among rules, either explicitly or implicitly, which harms interpretability; and 3) currently no method exists for learning probabilistic rule sets for multi-class target variables (there is only one for probabilistic rule lists). We propose TURS, for Truly Unordered Rule Sets, which addresses these shortcomings. We first formalize the problem of learning truly unordered rule sets. To resolve conflicts caused by overlapping rules, i.e., instances covered by multiple rules, we propose a novel approach that exploits the probabilistic properties of our rule sets. We next develop a two-phase heuristic algorithm that learns rule sets by carefully growing rules. An important innovation is that we use a surrogate score to take the global potential of the rule set into account when learning a local rule. Finally, we empirically demonstrate that, compared to non-probabilistic and (explicitly or implicitly) ordered state-of-the-art methods, our method learns rule sets that not only have better interpretability but also better predictive performance.

Entity Set Expansion (ESE) is a valuable task that aims to find entities of the target semantic class described by given seed entities. Various NLP and IR downstream applications have benefited from ESE due to its ability to discover knowledge. Although existing bootstrapping methods have achieved great progress, most of them still rely on manually pre-defined context patterns. A non-negligible shortcoming of the pre-defined context patterns is that they cannot be flexibly generalized to all kinds of semantic classes, and we call this phenomenon as "semantic sensitivity". To address this problem, we devise a context pattern generation module that utilizes autoregressive language models (e.g., GPT-2) to automatically generate high-quality context patterns for entities. In addition, we propose the GAPA, a novel ESE framework that leverages the aforementioned GenerAted PAtterns to expand target entities. Extensive experiments and detailed analyses on three widely used datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. All the codes of our experiments will be available for reproducibility.

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian inverse problem with Gaussian prior and likelihood. The resulting posterior distribution characterizes the operators defining the reduced-order model, hence the predictions subsequently issued by the reduced-order model are endowed with uncertainty. The statistical moments of these predictions are estimated via a Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution. Since the reduced models are fast to solve, this sampling is computationally efficient. Furthermore, the proposed Bayesian framework provides a statistical interpretation of the regularization term that is present in the deterministic operator inference problem, and the empirical Bayes approach of maximum marginal likelihood suggests a selection algorithm for the regularization hyperparameters. The proposed method is demonstrated on two examples: the compressible Euler equations with noise-corrupted observations, and a single-injector combustion process.

This paper investigates the post-hoc calibration of confidence for "exploratory" machine learning classification problems. The difficulty in these problems stems from the continuing desire to push the boundaries of which categories have enough examples to generalize from when curating datasets, and confusion regarding the validity of those categories. We argue that for such problems the "one-versus-all" approach (top-label calibration) must be used rather than the "calibrate-the-full-response-matrix" approach advocated elsewhere in the literature. We introduce and test four new algorithms designed to handle the idiosyncrasies of category-specific confidence estimation. Chief among these methods is the use of kernel density ratios for confidence calibration including a novel, bulletproof algorithm for choosing the bandwidth. We test our claims and explore the limits of calibration on a bioinformatics application (PhANNs) as well as the classic MNIST benchmark. Finally, our analysis argues that post-hoc calibration should always be performed, should be based only on the test dataset, and should be sanity-checked visually.

Person Re-identification (re-id) faces two major challenges: the lack of cross-view paired training data and learning discriminative identity-sensitive and view-invariant features in the presence of large pose variations. In this work, we address both problems by proposing a novel deep person image generation model for synthesizing realistic person images conditional on pose. The model is based on a generative adversarial network (GAN) and used specifically for pose normalization in re-id, thus termed pose-normalization GAN (PN-GAN). With the synthesized images, we can learn a new type of deep re-id feature free of the influence of pose variations. We show that this feature is strong on its own and highly complementary to features learned with the original images. Importantly, we now have a model that generalizes to any new re-id dataset without the need for collecting any training data for model fine-tuning, thus making a deep re-id model truly scalable. Extensive experiments on five benchmarks show that our model outperforms the state-of-the-art models, often significantly. In particular, the features learned on Market-1501 can achieve a Rank-1 accuracy of 68.67% on VIPeR without any model fine-tuning, beating almost all existing models fine-tuned on the dataset.