We investigate the evidence/flexibility (i.e., "Occam") paradigm and demonstrate the theoretical and empirical consistency of Bayesian evidence for the task of determining an appropriate generative model for network data. This model selection framework involves determining a collection of candidate models, equipping each of these models' parameters with prior distributions derived via the encompassing priors method, and computing or approximating each models' evidence. We demonstrate how such a criterion may be used to select the most suitable model among the Erd\"os-R\`enyi (ER) model, independent edge (IE) model, and a special one-parameter low-rank stochastic blockmodel (SBM) with known memberships. The Erd\"os-R\`enyi may be considered as being linearly nested within IE, a fact which permits exponential family results. The uniparametric SBM is not so ideal, so we propose a numerical method to approximate the evidence. We apply this paradigm to brain connectome data. Future work necessitates deriving and equipping additional candidate random graph models with appropriate priors so they may be included in the paradigm.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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We develop a post-selection inference method for the Cox proportional hazards model with interval-censored data, which provides asymptotically valid p-values and confidence intervals conditional on the model selected by lasso. The method is based on a pivotal quantity that is shown to converge to a uniform distribution under local alternatives. The proof can be adapted to many other regression models, which is illustrated by the extension to generalized linear models and the Cox model with right-censored data. Our method involves estimation of the efficient information matrix, for which several approaches are proposed with proof of their consistency. Thorough simulation studies show that our method has satisfactory performance in samples of modest sizes. The utility of the method is illustrated via an application to an Alzheimer's disease study.
Automated driving systems use multi-modal sensor suites to ensure the reliable, redundant and robust perception of the operating domain, for example camera and LiDAR. An accurate extrinsic calibration is required to fuse the camera and LiDAR data into a common spatial reference frame required by high-level perception functions. Over the life of the vehicle the value of the extrinsic calibration can change due physical disturbances, introducing an error into the high-level perception functions. Therefore there is a need for continuous online extrinsic calibration algorithms which can automatically update the value of the camera-LiDAR calibration during the life of the vehicle using only sensor data. We propose using mutual information between the camera image's depth estimate, provided by commonly available monocular depth estimation networks, and the LiDAR pointcloud's geometric distance as a optimization metric for extrinsic calibration. Our method requires no calibration target, no ground truth training data and no expensive offline optimization. We demonstrate our algorithm's accuracy, precision, speed and self-diagnosis capability on the KITTI-360 data set.
Collaborative robots must simultaneously be safe enough to operate in close proximity to human operators and powerful enough to assist users in industrial tasks such as lifting heavy equipment. The requirement for safety necessitates that collaborative robots are designed with low-powered actuators. However, some industrial tasks may require the robot to have high payload capacity and/or long reach. For collaborative robot designs to be successful, they must find ways of addressing these conflicting design requirements. One promising strategy for navigating this tradeoff is through the use of static balancing mechanisms to offset the robot's self weight, thus enabling the selection of lower-powered actuators. In this paper, we introduce a novel, 2 degree of freedom static balancing mechanism based on spring-loaded, wire-wrapped cams. We also present an optimization-based cam design method that guarantees the cams stay convex, ensures the springs stay below their extensions limits, and minimizes sensitivity to unmodeled deviations from the nominal spring constant. Additionally, we present a model of the effect of friction between the wire and the cam. Lastly, we show experimentally that the torque generated by the cam mechanism matches the torque predicted in our modeling approach. Our results also suggest that the effects of wire-cam friction are significant for non-circular cams.
In this paper we present a method for single-channel wind noise reduction using our previously proposed diffusion-based stochastic regeneration model combining predictive and generative modelling. We introduce a non-additive speech in noise model to account for the non-linear deformation of the membrane caused by the wind flow and possible clipping. We show that our stochastic regeneration model outperforms other neural-network-based wind noise reduction methods as well as purely predictive and generative models, on a dataset using simulated and real-recorded wind noise. We further show that the proposed method generalizes well by testing on an unseen dataset with real-recorded wind noise. Audio samples, data generation scripts and code for the proposed methods can be found online (//uhh.de/inf-sp-storm-wind).
Spaces with locally varying scale of measurement, like multidimensional structures with differently scaled dimensions, are pretty common in statistics and machine learning. Nevertheless, it is still understood as an open question how to exploit the entire information encoded in them properly. We address this problem by considering an order based on (sets of) expectations of random variables mapping into such non-standard spaces. This order contains stochastic dominance and expectation order as extreme cases when no, or respectively perfect, cardinal structure is given. We derive a (regularized) statistical test for our proposed generalized stochastic dominance (GSD) order, operationalize it by linear optimization, and robustify it by imprecise probability models. Our findings are illustrated with data from multidimensional poverty measurement, finance, and medicine.
Full waveform inversion (FWI) has the potential to provide high-resolution subsurface model estimations. However, due to limitations in observation, e.g., regional noise, limited shots or receivers, and band-limited data, it is hard to obtain the desired high-resolution model with FWI. To address this challenge, we propose a new paradigm for FWI regularized by generative diffusion models. Specifically, we pre-train a diffusion model in a fully unsupervised manner on a prior velocity model distribution that represents our expectations of the subsurface and then adapt it to the seismic observations by incorporating the FWI into the sampling process of the generative diffusion models. What makes diffusion models uniquely appropriate for such an implementation is that the generative process retains the form and dimensions of the velocity model. Numerical examples demonstrate that our method can outperform the conventional FWI with only negligible additional computational cost. Even in cases of very sparse observations or observations with strong noise, the proposed method could still reconstruct a high-quality subsurface model. Thus, we can incorporate our prior expectations of the solutions in an efficient manner. We further test this approach on field data, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.
This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of stochastic systems affected by external manipulation (interventions). This thesis contributes to the research areas concerning the estimation of causal effects, causal structure learning, and distributionally robust (out-of-distribution generalizing) prediction methods. We present novel and consistent linear and non-linear causal effects estimators in instrumental variable settings that employ data-dependent mean squared prediction error regularization. Our proposed estimators show, in certain settings, mean squared error improvements compared to both canonical and state-of-the-art estimators. We show that recent research on distributionally robust prediction methods has connections to well-studied estimators from econometrics. This connection leads us to prove that general K-class estimators possess distributional robustness properties. We, furthermore, propose a general framework for distributional robustness with respect to intervention-induced distributions. In this framework, we derive sufficient conditions for the identifiability of distributionally robust prediction methods and present impossibility results that show the necessity of several of these conditions. We present a new structure learning method applicable in additive noise models with directed trees as causal graphs. We prove consistency in a vanishing identifiability setup and provide a method for testing substructure hypotheses with asymptotic family-wise error control that remains valid post-selection. Finally, we present heuristic ideas for learning summary graphs of nonlinear time-series models.
The aim of this work is to develop a fully-distributed algorithmic framework for training graph convolutional networks (GCNs). The proposed method is able to exploit the meaningful relational structure of the input data, which are collected by a set of agents that communicate over a sparse network topology. After formulating the centralized GCN training problem, we first show how to make inference in a distributed scenario where the underlying data graph is split among different agents. Then, we propose a distributed gradient descent procedure to solve the GCN training problem. The resulting model distributes computation along three lines: during inference, during back-propagation, and during optimization. Convergence to stationary solutions of the GCN training problem is also established under mild conditions. Finally, we propose an optimization criterion to design the communication topology between agents in order to match with the graph describing data relationships. A wide set of numerical results validate our proposal. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work combining graph convolutional neural networks with distributed optimization.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a popular class of machine learning models whose major advantage is their ability to incorporate a sparse and discrete dependency structure between data points. Unfortunately, GNNs can only be used when such a graph-structure is available. In practice, however, real-world graphs are often noisy and incomplete or might not be available at all. With this work, we propose to jointly learn the graph structure and the parameters of graph convolutional networks (GCNs) by approximately solving a bilevel program that learns a discrete probability distribution on the edges of the graph. This allows one to apply GCNs not only in scenarios where the given graph is incomplete or corrupted but also in those where a graph is not available. We conduct a series of experiments that analyze the behavior of the proposed method and demonstrate that it outperforms related methods by a significant margin.
Recent years have witnessed the enormous success of low-dimensional vector space representations of knowledge graphs to predict missing facts or find erroneous ones. Currently, however, it is not yet well-understood how ontological knowledge, e.g. given as a set of (existential) rules, can be embedded in a principled way. To address this shortcoming, in this paper we introduce a framework based on convex regions, which can faithfully incorporate ontological knowledge into the vector space embedding. Our technical contribution is two-fold. First, we show that some of the most popular existing embedding approaches are not capable of modelling even very simple types of rules. Second, we show that our framework can represent ontologies that are expressed using so-called quasi-chained existential rules in an exact way, such that any set of facts which is induced using that vector space embedding is logically consistent and deductively closed with respect to the input ontology.
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