In this paper, we consider the prediction of the helium concentrations as function of a spatially variable source term perturbed by fractional Brownian motion. For the direct problem, we show that it is well-posed and has a unique mild solution under some conditions. For the inverse problem, the uniqueness and the instability are given. In the meanwhile, we determine the statistical properties of the source from the expectation and covariance of the final-time data u(r,T). Finally, numerical implements are given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed reconstruction.
相關內容
Bayesian optimization (BO) is a widely popular approach for the hyperparameter optimization (HPO) in machine learning. At its core, BO iteratively evaluates promising configurations until a user-defined budget, such as wall-clock time or number of iterations, is exhausted. While the final performance after tuning heavily depends on the provided budget, it is hard to pre-specify an optimal value in advance. In this work, we propose an effective and intuitive termination criterion for BO that automatically stops the procedure if it is sufficiently close to the global optimum. Our key insight is that the discrepancy between the true objective (predictive performance on test data) and the computable target (validation performance) suggests stopping once the suboptimality in optimizing the target is dominated by the statistical estimation error. Across an extensive range of real-world HPO problems and baselines, we show that our termination criterion achieves a better trade-off between the test performance and optimization time. Additionally, we find that overfitting may occur in the context of HPO, which is arguably an overlooked problem in the literature, and show how our termination criterion helps to mitigate this phenomenon on both small and large datasets.
Recent works in bandit problems adopted lasso convergence theory in the sequential decision-making setting. Even with fully observed contexts, there are technical challenges that hinder the application of existing lasso convergence theory: 1) proving the restricted eigenvalue condition under conditionally sub-Gaussian noise and 2) accounting for the dependence between the context variables and the chosen actions. This paper studies the effect of missing covariates on regret for stochastic linear bandit algorithms. Our work provides a high-probability upper bound on the regret incurred by the proposed algorithm in terms of covariate sampling probabilities, showing that the regret degrades due to missingness by at most $\zeta_{min}^2$, where $\zeta_{min}$ is the minimum probability of observing covariates in the context vector. We illustrate our algorithm for the practical application of experimental design for collecting gene expression data by a sequential selection of class discriminating DNA probes.
In this paper, we study a sequential decision making problem faced by e-commerce carriers related to when to send out a vehicle from the central depot to serve customer requests, and in which order to provide the service, under the assumption that the time at which parcels arrive at the depot is stochastic and dynamic. The objective is to maximize the number of parcels that can be delivered during the service hours. We propose two reinforcement learning approaches for solving this problem, one based on a policy function approximation (PFA) and the second on a value function approximation (VFA). Both methods are combined with a look-ahead strategy, in which future release dates are sampled in a Monte-Carlo fashion and a tailored batch approach is used to approximate the value of future states. Our PFA and VFA make a good use of branch-and-cut-based exact methods to improve the quality of decisions. We also establish sufficient conditions for partial characterization of optimal policy and integrate them into PFA/VFA. In an empirical study based on 720 benchmark instances, we conduct a competitive analysis using upper bounds with perfect information and we show that PFA and VFA greatly outperform two alternative myopic approaches. Overall, PFA provides best solutions, while VFA (which benefits from a two-stage stochastic optimization model) achieves a better tradeoff between solution quality and computing time.
Suppose we are given integer $k \leq n$ and $n$ boxes labeled $1,\ldots, n$ by an adversary, each containing a number chosen from an unknown distribution. We have to choose an order to sequentially open these boxes, and each time we open the next box in this order, we learn its number. If we reject a number in a box, the box cannot be recalled. Our goal is to accept the $k$ largest of these numbers, without necessarily opening all boxes. This is the free order multiple-choice secretary problem. Free order variants were studied extensively for the secretary and prophet problems. Kesselheim, Kleinberg, and Niazadeh KKN (STOC'15) initiated a study of randomness-efficient algorithms (with the cheapest order in terms of used random bits) for the free order secretary problems. We present an algorithm for free order multiple-choice secretary, which is simultaneously optimal for the competitive ratio and used amount of randomness. I.e., we construct a distribution on orders with optimal entropy $\Theta(\log\log n)$ such that a deterministic multiple-threshold algorithm is $1-O(\sqrt{\log k/k})$-competitive. This improves in three ways the previous best construction by KKN, whose competitive ratio is $1 - O(1/k^{1/3}) - o(1)$. Our competitive ratio is (near)optimal for the multiple-choice secretary problem; it works for exponentially larger parameter $k$; and our algorithm is a simple deterministic multiple-threshold algorithm, while that in KKN is randomized. We also prove a corresponding lower bound on the entropy of optimal solutions for the multiple-choice secretary problem, matching entropy of our algorithm, where no such previous lower bound was known. We obtain our algorithmic results with a host of new techniques, and with these techniques we also improve significantly the previous results of KKN about constructing entropy-optimal distributions for the classic free order secretary.
The monotone minimal perfect hash function (MMPHF) problem is the following indexing problem. Given a set $S= \{s_1,\ldots,s_n\}$ of $n$ distinct keys from a universe $U$ of size $u$, create a data structure $DS$ that answers the following query: \[ RankOp(q) = \text{rank of } q \text{ in } S \text{ for all } q\in S ~\text{ and arbitrary answer otherwise.} \] Solutions to the MMPHF problem are in widespread use in both theory and practice. The best upper bound known for the problem encodes $DS$ in $O(n\log\log\log u)$ bits and performs queries in $O(\log u)$ time. It has been an open problem to either improve the space upper bound or to show that this somewhat odd looking bound is tight. In this paper, we show the latter: specifically that any data structure (deterministic or randomized) for monotone minimal perfect hashing of any collection of $n$ elements from a universe of size $u$ requires $\Omega(n \cdot \log\log\log{u})$ expected bits to answer every query correctly. We achieve our lower bound by defining a graph $\mathbf{G}$ where the nodes are the possible ${u \choose n}$ inputs and where two nodes are adjacent if they cannot share the same $DS$. The size of $DS$ is then lower bounded by the log of the chromatic number of $\mathbf{G}$. Finally, we show that the fractional chromatic number (and hence the chromatic number) of $\mathbf{G}$ is lower bounded by $2^{\Omega(n \log\log\log u)}$.
We propose a data-driven way to reduce the noise of covariance matrices of nonstationary systems. In the case of stationary systems, asymptotic approaches were proved to converge to the optimal solutions. Such methods produce eigenvalues that are highly dependent on the inputs, as common sense would suggest. Our approach proposes instead to use a set of eigenvalues totally independent from the inputs and that encode the long-term averaging of the influence of the future on present eigenvalues. Such an influence can be the predominant factor in nonstationary systems. Using real and synthetic data, we show that our data-driven method outperforms optimal methods designed for stationary systems for the filtering of both covariance matrix and its inverse, as illustrated by financial portfolio variance minimization, which makes out method generically relevant to many problems of multivariate inference.
Driven by the availability of modern software and hardware, Bayesian analysis is becoming more popular in neutron and X-ray reflectometry analysis. The understandability and replicability of these analyses may be harmed by inconsistencies in how the probability distributions central to Bayesian methods are represented in the literature. Herein, we provide advice on how to report the results of Bayesian analysis as applied to neutron and X-ray reflectometry. This includes the clear reporting of initial starting conditions, the prior probabilities, and results of any analysis, and the posterior probabilities that are the Bayesian equivalent of the error bar, to enable replicability and improve understanding. We believe that this advice, grounded in our experience working in the field, will enable greater analytical reproducibility among the reflectometry community, as well as improve the quality and usability of results.
Navier-Stokes equations are significant partial differential equations that describe the motion of fluids such as liquids and air. Due to the importance of Navier-Stokes equations, the development on efficient numerical schemes is important for both science and engineer. Recently, with the development of AI techniques, several approaches have been designed to integrate deep neural networks in simulating and inferring the fluid dynamics governed by incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, which can accelerate the simulation or inferring process in a mesh-free and differentiable way. In this paper, we point out that the capability of existing deep Navier-Stokes informed methods is limited to handle non-smooth or fractional equations, which are two critical situations in reality. To this end, we propose the \emph{Deep Random Vortex Method} (DRVM), which combines the neural network with a random vortex dynamics system equivalent to the Navier-Stokes equation. Specifically, the random vortex dynamics motivates a Monte Carlo based loss function for training the neural network, which avoids the calculation of derivatives through auto-differentiation. Therefore, DRVM not only can efficiently solve Navier-Stokes equations involving rough path, non-differentiable initial conditions and fractional operators, but also inherits the mesh-free and differentiable benefits of the deep-learning-based solver. We conduct experiments on the Cauchy problem, parametric solver learning, and the inverse problem of both 2-d and 3-d incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. The proposed method achieves accurate results for simulation and inference of Navier-Stokes equations. Especially for the cases that include singular initial conditions, DRVM significantly outperforms existing PINN method.
Human motion trajectory prediction, an essential task for autonomous systems in many domains, has been on the rise in recent years. With a multitude of new methods proposed by different communities, the lack of standardized benchmarks and objective comparisons is increasingly becoming a major limitation to assess progress and guide further research. Existing benchmarks are limited in their scope and flexibility to conduct relevant experiments and to account for contextual cues of agents and environments. In this paper we present Atlas, a benchmark to systematically evaluate human motion trajectory prediction algorithms in a unified framework. Atlas offers data preprocessing functions, hyperparameter optimization, comes with popular datasets and has the flexibility to setup and conduct underexplored yet relevant experiments to analyze a method's accuracy and robustness. In an example application of Atlas, we compare five popular model- and learning-based predictors and find that, when properly applied, early physics-based approaches are still remarkably competitive. Such results confirm the necessity of benchmarks like Atlas.
We present a new approach-the ALVar estimator-to estimation of asymptotic variance in sequential Monte Carlo methods, or, particle filters. The method, which adjusts adaptively the lag of the estimator proposed in [Olsson, J. and Douc, R. (2019). Numerically stable online estimation of variance in particle filters. Bernoulli, 25(2), pp. 1504-1535] applies to very general distribution flows and particle filters, including auxiliary particle filters with adaptive resampling. The algorithm operates entirely online, in the sense that it is able to monitor the variance of the particle filter in real time and with, on the average, constant computational complexity and memory requirements per iteration. Crucially, it does not require the calibration of any algorithmic parameter. Estimating the variance only on the basis of the genealogy of the propagated particle cloud, without additional simulations, the routine requires only minor code additions to the underlying particle algorithm. Finally, we prove that the ALVar estimator is consistent for the true asymptotic variance as the number of particles tends to infinity and illustrate numerically its superiority to existing approaches.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191