Deep Learning is applied to energy markets to predict extreme loads observed in energy grids. Forecasting energy loads and prices is challenging due to sharp peaks and troughs that arise due to supply and demand fluctuations from intraday system constraints. We propose deep spatio-temporal models and extreme value theory (EVT) to capture theses effects and in particular the tail behavior of load spikes. Deep LSTM architectures with ReLU and $\tanh$ activation functions can model trends and temporal dependencies while EVT captures highly volatile load spikes above a pre-specified threshold. To illustrate our methodology, we use hourly price and demand data from 4719 nodes of the PJM interconnection, and we construct a deep predictor. We show that DL-EVT outperforms traditional Fourier time series methods, both in-and out-of-sample, by capturing the observed nonlinearities in prices. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.
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When and why can a neural network be successfully trained? This article provides an overview of optimization algorithms and theory for training neural networks. First, we discuss the issue of gradient explosion/vanishing and the more general issue of undesirable spectrum, and then discuss practical solutions including careful initialization and normalization methods. Second, we review generic optimization methods used in training neural networks, such as SGD, adaptive gradient methods and distributed methods, and theoretical results for these algorithms. Third, we review existing research on the global issues of neural network training, including results on bad local minima, mode connectivity, lottery ticket hypothesis and infinite-width analysis.
In information retrieval (IR) and related tasks, term weighting approaches typically consider the frequency of the term in the document and in the collection in order to compute a score reflecting the importance of the term for the document. In tasks characterized by the presence of training data (such as text classification) it seems logical that the term weighting function should take into account the distribution (as estimated from training data) of the term across the classes of interest. Although `supervised term weighting' approaches that use this intuition have been described before, they have failed to show consistent improvements. In this article we analyse the possible reasons for this failure, and call consolidated assumptions into question. Following this criticism we propose a novel supervised term weighting approach that, instead of relying on any predefined formula, learns a term weighting function optimised on the training set of interest; we dub this approach \emph{Learning to Weight} (LTW). The experiments that we run on several well-known benchmarks, and using different learning methods, show that our method outperforms previous term weighting approaches in text classification.
Deep reinforcement learning (RL) has achieved many recent successes, yet experiment turn-around time remains a key bottleneck in research and in practice. We investigate how to optimize existing deep RL algorithms for modern computers, specifically for a combination of CPUs and GPUs. We confirm that both policy gradient and Q-value learning algorithms can be adapted to learn using many parallel simulator instances. We further find it possible to train using batch sizes considerably larger than are standard, without negatively affecting sample complexity or final performance. We leverage these facts to build a unified framework for parallelization that dramatically hastens experiments in both classes of algorithm. All neural network computations use GPUs, accelerating both data collection and training. Our results include using an entire DGX-1 to learn successful strategies in Atari games in mere minutes, using both synchronous and asynchronous algorithms.
There is a recent large and growing interest in generative adversarial networks (GANs), which offer powerful features for generative modeling, density estimation, and energy function learning. GANs are difficult to train and evaluate but are capable of creating amazingly realistic, though synthetic, image data. Ideas stemming from GANs such as adversarial losses are creating research opportunities for other challenges such as domain adaptation. In this paper, we look at the field of GANs with emphasis on these areas of emerging research. To provide background for adversarial techniques, we survey the field of GANs, looking at the original formulation, training variants, evaluation methods, and extensions. Then we survey recent work on transfer learning, focusing on comparing different adversarial domain adaptation methods. Finally, we take a look forward to identify open research directions for GANs and domain adaptation, including some promising applications such as sensor-based human behavior modeling.
Generic object detection, aiming at locating object instances from a large number of predefined categories in natural images, is one of the most fundamental and challenging problems in computer vision. Deep learning techniques have emerged in recent years as powerful methods for learning feature representations directly from data, and have led to remarkable breakthroughs in the field of generic object detection. Given this time of rapid evolution, the goal of this paper is to provide a comprehensive survey of the recent achievements in this field brought by deep learning techniques. More than 250 key contributions are included in this survey, covering many aspects of generic object detection research: leading detection frameworks and fundamental subproblems including object feature representation, object proposal generation, context information modeling and training strategies; evaluation issues, specifically benchmark datasets, evaluation metrics, and state of the art performance. We finish by identifying promising directions for future research.
We introduce an approach for deep reinforcement learning (RL) that improves upon the efficiency, generalization capacity, and interpretability of conventional approaches through structured perception and relational reasoning. It uses self-attention to iteratively reason about the relations between entities in a scene and to guide a model-free policy. Our results show that in a novel navigation and planning task called Box-World, our agent finds interpretable solutions that improve upon baselines in terms of sample complexity, ability to generalize to more complex scenes than experienced during training, and overall performance. In the StarCraft II Learning Environment, our agent achieves state-of-the-art performance on six mini-games -- surpassing human grandmaster performance on four. By considering architectural inductive biases, our work opens new directions for overcoming important, but stubborn, challenges in deep RL.
In this paper, we propose a novel conditional generative adversarial nets based image captioning framework as an extension of traditional reinforcement learning (RL) based encoder-decoder architecture. To deal with the inconsistent evaluation problem between objective language metrics and subjective human judgements, we are inspired to design some "discriminator" networks to automatically and progressively determine whether generated caption is human described or machine generated. Two kinds of discriminator architecture (CNN and RNN based structures) are introduced since each has its own advantages. The proposed algorithm is generic so that it can enhance any existing encoder-decoder based image captioning model and we show that conventional RL training method is just a special case of our framework. Empirically, we show consistent improvements over all language evaluation metrics for different stage-of-the-art image captioning models.
Modeling and generating graphs is fundamental for studying networks in biology, engineering, and social sciences. However, modeling complex distributions over graphs and then efficiently sampling from these distributions is challenging due to the non-unique, high-dimensional nature of graphs and the complex, non-local dependencies that exist between edges in a given graph. Here we propose GraphRNN, a deep autoregressive model that addresses the above challenges and approximates any distribution of graphs with minimal assumptions about their structure. GraphRNN learns to generate graphs by training on a representative set of graphs and decomposes the graph generation process into a sequence of node and edge formations, conditioned on the graph structure generated so far. In order to quantitatively evaluate the performance of GraphRNN, we introduce a benchmark suite of datasets, baselines and novel evaluation metrics based on Maximum Mean Discrepancy, which measure distances between sets of graphs. Our experiments show that GraphRNN significantly outperforms all baselines, learning to generate diverse graphs that match the structural characteristics of a target set, while also scaling to graphs 50 times larger than previous deep models.
Accelerated by the tremendous increase in Internet bandwidth and storage space, video data has been generated, published and spread explosively, becoming an indispensable part of today's big data. In this paper, we focus on reviewing two lines of research aiming to stimulate the comprehension of videos with deep learning: video classification and video captioning. While video classification concentrates on automatically labeling video clips based on their semantic contents like human actions or complex events, video captioning attempts to generate a complete and natural sentence, enriching the single label as in video classification, to capture the most informative dynamics in videos. In addition, we also provide a review of popular benchmarks and competitions, which are critical for evaluating the technical progress of this vibrant field.
We propose a novel recommendation method based on tree. With user behavior data, the tree based model can capture user interests from coarse to fine, by traversing nodes top down and make decisions whether to pick up each node to user. Compared to traditional model-based methods like matrix factorization (MF), our tree based model does not have to fetch and estimate each item in the entire set. Instead, candidates are drawn from subsets corresponding to user's high-level interests, which is defined by the tree structure. Meanwhile, finding candidates from the entire corpus brings more novelty than content-based approaches like item-based collaborative filtering.Moreover, in this paper, we show that the tree structure can also act to refine user interests distribution, to benefit both training and prediction. The experimental results in both open dataset and Taobao display advertising dataset indicate that the proposed method outperforms existing methods.
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