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The infinite horizon setting is widely adopted for problems of reinforcement learning (RL). These invariably result in stationary policies that are optimal. In many situations, finite horizon control problems are of interest and for such problems, the optimal policies are time-varying in general. Another setting that has become popular in recent times is of Constrained Reinforcement Learning, where the agent maximizes its rewards while it also aims to satisfy some given constraint criteria. However, this setting has only been studied in the context of infinite horizon MDPs where stationary policies are optimal. We present an algorithm for constrained RL in the Finite Horizon Setting where the horizon terminates after a fixed (finite) time. We use function approximation in our algorithm which is essential when the state and action spaces are large or continuous and use the policy gradient method to find the optimal policy. The optimal policy that we obtain depends on the stage and so is non-stationary in general. To the best of our knowledge, our paper presents the first policy gradient algorithm for the finite horizon setting with constraints. We show the convergence of our algorithm to a constrained optimal policy. We also compare and analyze the performance of our algorithm through experiments and show that our algorithm performs better than some other well known algorithms.

The projection predictive variable selection is a decision-theoretically justified Bayesian variable selection approach achieving an outstanding trade-off between predictive performance and sparsity. Its projection problem is not easy to solve in general because it is based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence from a restricted posterior predictive distribution of the so-called reference model to the parameter-conditional predictive distribution of a candidate model. Previous work showed how this projection problem can be solved for response families employed in generalized linear models and how an approximate latent-space approach can be used for many other response families. Here, we present an exact projection method for all response families with discrete and finite support, called the augmented-data projection. A simulation study for an ordinal response family shows that the proposed method performs better than or similarly to the previously proposed approximate latent-space projection. The cost of the slightly better performance of the augmented-data projection is a substantial increase in runtime. Thus, in such cases, we recommend the latent projection in the early phase of a model-building workflow and the augmented-data projection for final results. The ordinal response family from our simulation study is supported by both projection methods, but we also include a real-world cancer subtyping example with a nominal response family, a case that is not supported by the latent projection.

Recent image harmonization methods have demonstrated promising results. However, due to their heavy reliance on a large number of composite images, these works are expensive in the training phase and often fail to generalize to unseen images. In this paper, we draw lessons from human behavior and come up with a zero-shot image harmonization method. Specifically, in the harmonization process, a human mainly utilizes his long-term prior on harmonious images and makes a composite image close to that prior. To imitate that, we resort to pretrained generative models for the prior of natural images. For the guidance of the harmonization direction, we propose an Attention-Constraint Text which is optimized to well illustrate the image environments. Some further designs are introduced for preserving the foreground content structure. The resulting framework, highly consistent with human behavior, can achieve harmonious results without burdensome training. Extensive experiments have demonstrated the effectiveness of our approach, and we have also explored some interesting applications.

The identification of choice models is crucial for understanding consumer behavior, designing marketing policies, and developing new products. The identification of parametric choice-based demand models, such as the multinomial choice model (MNL), is typically straightforward. However, nonparametric models, which are highly effective and flexible in explaining customer choices, may encounter the curse of the dimensionality and lose their identifiability. For example, the ranking-based model, which is a nonparametric model and designed to mirror the random utility maximization (RUM) principle, is known to be nonidentifiable from the collection of choice probabilities alone. In this paper, we develop a new class of nonparametric models that is not subject to the problem of nonidentifiability. Our model assumes bounded rationality of consumers, which results in symmetric demand cannibalization and intriguingly enables full identification. That is to say, we can uniquely construct the model based on its observed choice probabilities over assortments. We further propose an efficient estimation framework using a combination of column generation and expectation-maximization algorithms. Using a real-world data, we show that our choice model demonstrates competitive prediction accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art benchmarks, despite incorporating the assumption of bounded rationality which could, in theory, limit the representation power of our model.

With the increasing availability of datasets, developing data fusion methods to leverage the strengths of different datasets to draw causal effects is of great practical importance to many scientific fields. In this paper, we consider estimating the quantile treatment effects using small validation data with fully-observed confounders and large auxiliary data with unmeasured confounders. We propose a Fused Quantile Treatment effects Estimator (FQTE) by integrating the information from two datasets based on doubly robust estimating functions. We allow for the misspecification of the models on the dataset with unmeasured confounders. Under mild conditions, we show that the proposed FQTE is asymptotically normal and more efficient than the initial QTE estimator using the validation data solely. By establishing the asymptotic linear forms of related estimators, convenient methods for covariance estimation are provided. Simulation studies demonstrate the empirical validity and improved efficiency of our fused estimators. We illustrate the proposed method with an application.

The estimation of parameter standard errors for semi-variogram models is challenging, given the two-step process required to fit a parametric model to spatially correlated data. Motivated by an application in the social-epidemiology, we focus on exponential semi-variogram models fitted to data between 500 to 2000 observations and little control over the sampling design. Previously proposed methods for the estimation of standard errors cannot be applied in this context. Approximate closed form solutions are too costly using generalized least squares in terms of memory capacities. The generalized bootstrap proposed by Olea and Pardo-Ig\'uzquiza is nonetheless applicable with weighted instead of generalized least squares. However, the standard error estimates are hugely biased and imprecise. Therefore, we propose a filtering method added to the generalized bootstrap. The new development is presented and evaluated with a simulation study which shows that the generalized bootstrap with check-based filtering leads to massively improved results compared to the quantile-based filter method and previously developed approaches. We provide a case study using birthweight data.

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) aims to estimate the benefit of following a counterfactual sequence of actions, given data collected from executed sequences. However, existing OPE estimators often exhibit high bias and high variance in problems involving large, combinatorial action spaces. We investigate how to mitigate this issue using factored action spaces i.e. expressing each action as a combination of independent sub-actions from smaller action spaces. This approach facilitates a finer-grained analysis of how actions differ in their effects. In this work, we propose a new family of "decomposed" importance sampling (IS) estimators based on factored action spaces. Given certain assumptions on the underlying problem structure, we prove that the decomposed IS estimators have less variance than their original non-decomposed versions, while preserving the property of zero bias. Through simulations, we empirically verify our theoretical results, probing the validity of various assumptions. Provided with a technique that can derive the action space factorisation for a given problem, our work shows that OPE can be improved "for free" by utilising this inherent problem structure.

In many industrial applications, obtaining labeled observations is not straightforward as it often requires the intervention of human experts or the use of expensive testing equipment. In these circumstances, active learning can be highly beneficial in suggesting the most informative data points to be used when fitting a model. Reducing the number of observations needed for model development alleviates both the computational burden required for training and the operational expenses related to labeling. Online active learning, in particular, is useful in high-volume production processes where the decision about the acquisition of the label for a data point needs to be taken within an extremely short time frame. However, despite the recent efforts to develop online active learning strategies, the behavior of these methods in the presence of outliers has not been thoroughly examined. In this work, we investigate the performance of online active linear regression in contaminated data streams. Our study shows that the currently available query strategies are prone to sample outliers, whose inclusion in the training set eventually degrades the predictive performance of the models. To address this issue, we propose a solution that bounds the search area of a conditional D-optimal algorithm and uses a robust estimator. Our approach strikes a balance between exploring unseen regions of the input space and protecting against outliers. Through numerical simulations, we show that the proposed method is effective in improving the performance of online active learning in the presence of outliers, thus expanding the potential applications of this powerful tool.

Variance reduction is a crucial idea for Monte Carlo simulation and the stochastic Lanczos quadrature method is a dedicated method to approximate the trace of a matrix function. Inspired by their advantages, we combine these two techniques to approximate the log-determinant of large-scale symmetric positive definite matrices. Key questions to be answered for such a method are how to construct or choose an appropriate projection subspace and derive guaranteed theoretical analysis. This paper applies some probabilistic approaches including the projection-cost-preserving sketch and matrix concentration inequalities to construct a suboptimal subspace. Furthermore, we provide some insights on choosing design parameters in the underlying algorithm by deriving corresponding approximation error and probabilistic error estimations. Numerical experiments demonstrate our method's effectiveness and illustrate the quality of the derived error bounds.

In this paper we consider online distributed learning problems. Online distributed learning refers to the process of training learning models on distributed data sources. In our setting a set of agents need to cooperatively train a learning model from streaming data. Differently from federated learning, the proposed approach does not rely on a central server but only on peer-to-peer communications among the agents. This approach is often used in scenarios where data cannot be moved to a centralized location due to privacy, security, or cost reasons. In order to overcome the absence of a central server, we propose a distributed algorithm that relies on a quantized, finite-time coordination protocol to aggregate the locally trained models. Furthermore, our algorithm allows for the use of stochastic gradients during local training. Stochastic gradients are computed using a randomly sampled subset of the local training data, which makes the proposed algorithm more efficient and scalable than traditional gradient descent. In our paper, we analyze the performance of the proposed algorithm in terms of the mean distance from the online solution. Finally, we present numerical results for a logistic regression task.