Automated fact-checking has drawn considerable attention over the past few decades due to the increase in the diffusion of misinformation on online platforms. This is often carried out as a sequence of tasks comprising (i) the detection of sentences circulating in online platforms which constitute claims needing verification, followed by (ii) the verification process of those claims. This survey focuses on the former, by discussing existing efforts towards detecting claims needing fact-checking, with a particular focus on multilingual data and methods. This is a challenging and fertile direction where existing methods are yet far from matching human performance due to the profoundly challenging nature of the issue. Especially, the dissemination of information across multiple social platforms, articulated in multiple languages and modalities demands more generalized solutions for combating misinformation. Focusing on multilingual misinformation, we present a comprehensive survey of existing multilingual claim detection research. We present state-of-the-art multilingual claim detection research categorized into three key factors of the problem, verifiability, priority, and similarity. Further, we present a detailed overview of the existing multilingual datasets along with the challenges and suggest possible future advancements.
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In financial modeling problems, non-Gaussian tails exist widely in many circumstances. Among them, the accurate estimation of risk-neutral distribution (RND) from option prices is of great importance for researchers and practitioners. A precise RND can provide valuable information regarding the market's expectations, and can further help empirical asset pricing studies. This paper presents a parsimonious parametric approach to extract RNDs of underlying asset returns by using a generative machine learning model. The model incorporates the asymmetric heavy tails property of returns with a clever design. To calibrate the model, we design a Monte Carlo algorithm that has good capability with the assistance of modern machine learning computing tools. Numerically, the model fits Heston option prices well and captures the main shapes of implied volatility curves. Empirically, using S\&P 500 index option prices, we demonstrate that the model outperforms some popular parametric density methods under mean absolute error. Furthermore, the skewness and kurtosis of RNDs extracted by our model are consistent with intuitive expectations. More generally, the proposed methodology is widely applicable in data fitting and probabilistic forecasting.
Though notable progress has been made, neural-based aspect-based sentiment analysis (ABSA) models are prone to learn spurious correlations from annotation biases, resulting in poor robustness on adversarial data transformations. Among the debiasing solutions, causal inference-based methods have attracted much research attention, which can be mainly categorized into causal intervention methods and counterfactual reasoning methods. However, most of the present debiasing methods focus on single-variable causal inference, which is not suitable for ABSA with two input variables (the target aspect and the review). In this paper, we propose a novel framework based on multi-variable causal inference for debiasing ABSA. In this framework, different types of biases are tackled based on different causal intervention methods. For the review branch, the bias is modeled as indirect confounding from context, where backdoor adjustment intervention is employed for debiasing. For the aspect branch, the bias is described as a direct correlation with labels, where counterfactual reasoning is adopted for debiasing. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method compared to various baselines on the two widely used real-world aspect robustness test set datasets.
Despite the importance of trust in human-AI interactions, researchers must adopt questionnaires from other disciplines that lack validation in the AI context. Motivated by the need for reliable and valid measures, we investigated the psychometric quality of two trust questionnaires, the Trust between People and Automation scale (TPA) by Jian et al. (2000) and the Trust Scale for the AI Context (TAI) by Hoffman et al. (2023). In a pre-registered online experiment (N = 1485), participants observed interactions with trustworthy and untrustworthy AI (autonomous vehicle and chatbot). Results support the psychometric quality of the TAI while revealing opportunities to improve the TPA, which we outline in our recommendations for using the two questionnaires. Furthermore, our findings provide additional empirical evidence of trust and distrust as two distinct constructs that may coexist independently. Building on our findings, we highlight the opportunities and added value of measuring both trust and distrust in human-AI research and advocate for further work on both constructs.
There has been substantial commentary on the role of cyberattacks carried by low-level cybercrime actors in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We analyse 358k web defacement attacks, 1.7M reflected DDoS attacks, 1764 Hack Forums posts mentioning the two countries, and 441 announcements (with 58k replies) of a volunteer hacking group for two months before and four months after the invasion. We find the conflict briefly but notably caught the attention of low-level cybercrime actors, with significant increases in online discussion and both types of attack targeting Russia and Ukraine. However, there was little evidence of high-profile actions; the role of these players in the ongoing hybrid warfare is minor, and they should be separated from persistent and motivated 'hacktivists' in state-sponsored operations. Their involvement in the conflict appears to have been short-lived and fleeting, with a clear loss of interest in discussing the situation and carrying out both defacement and DDoS attacks against either Russia or Ukraine after a few weeks.
Providing personalized recommendations for insurance products is particularly challenging due to the intrinsic and distinctive features of the insurance domain. First, unlike more traditional domains like retail, movie etc., a large amount of user feedback is not available and the item catalog is smaller. Second, due to the higher complexity of products, the majority of users still prefer to complete their purchases over the phone instead of online. We present different recommender models to address such data scarcity in the insurance domain. We use recurrent neural networks with 3 different types of loss functions and architectures (cross-entropy, censored Weibull, attention). Our models cope with data scarcity by learning from multiple sessions and different types of user actions. Moreover, differently from previous session-based models, our models learn to predict a target action that does not happen within the session. Our models outperform state-of-the-art baselines on a real-world insurance dataset, with ca. 44K users, 16 items, 54K purchases and 117K sessions. Moreover, combining our models with demographic data boosts the performance. Analysis shows that considering multiple sessions and several types of actions are both beneficial for the models, and that our models are not unfair with respect to age, gender and income.
Latent variable models are increasingly used in economics for high-dimensional categorical data like text and surveys. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) with parallelized automatic differentiation for analyzing such data in a computationally efficient and methodologically sound manner. Our new model, Supervised Topic Model with Covariates, shows that carefully modeling this type of data can have significant implications on conclusions compared to a simpler, frequently used, yet methodologically problematic, two-step approach. A simulation study and revisiting Bandiera et al. (2020)'s study of executive time use demonstrate these results. The approach accommodates thousands of parameters and doesn't require custom algorithms specific to each model, making it accessible for applied researchers
Defensive deception is a promising approach for cyberdefense. Although defensive deception is increasingly popular in the research community, there has not been a systematic investigation of its key components, the underlying principles, and its tradeoffs in various problem settings. This survey paper focuses on defensive deception research centered on game theory and machine learning, since these are prominent families of artificial intelligence approaches that are widely employed in defensive deception. This paper brings forth insights, lessons, and limitations from prior work. It closes with an outline of some research directions to tackle major gaps in current defensive deception research.
Generative commonsense reasoning which aims to empower machines to generate sentences with the capacity of reasoning over a set of concepts is a critical bottleneck for text generation. Even the state-of-the-art pre-trained language generation models struggle at this task and often produce implausible and anomalous sentences. One reason is that they rarely consider incorporating the knowledge graph which can provide rich relational information among the commonsense concepts. To promote the ability of commonsense reasoning for text generation, we propose a novel knowledge graph augmented pre-trained language generation model KG-BART, which encompasses the complex relations of concepts through the knowledge graph and produces more logical and natural sentences as output. Moreover, KG-BART can leverage the graph attention to aggregate the rich concept semantics that enhances the model generalization on unseen concept sets. Experiments on benchmark CommonGen dataset verify the effectiveness of our proposed approach by comparing with several strong pre-trained language generation models, particularly KG-BART outperforms BART by 5.80, 4.60, in terms of BLEU-3, 4. Moreover, we also show that the generated context by our model can work as background scenarios to benefit downstream commonsense QA tasks.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have recently become increasingly popular due to their ability to learn complex systems of relations or interactions arising in a broad spectrum of problems ranging from biology and particle physics to social networks and recommendation systems. Despite the plethora of different models for deep learning on graphs, few approaches have been proposed thus far for dealing with graphs that present some sort of dynamic nature (e.g. evolving features or connectivity over time). In this paper, we present Temporal Graph Networks (TGNs), a generic, efficient framework for deep learning on dynamic graphs represented as sequences of timed events. Thanks to a novel combination of memory modules and graph-based operators, TGNs are able to significantly outperform previous approaches being at the same time more computationally efficient. We furthermore show that several previous models for learning on dynamic graphs can be cast as specific instances of our framework. We perform a detailed ablation study of different components of our framework and devise the best configuration that achieves state-of-the-art performance on several transductive and inductive prediction tasks for dynamic graphs.
With the rise of knowledge graph (KG), question answering over knowledge base (KBQA) has attracted increasing attention in recent years. Despite much research has been conducted on this topic, it is still challenging to apply KBQA technology in industry because business knowledge and real-world questions can be rather complicated. In this paper, we present AliMe-KBQA, a bold attempt to apply KBQA in the E-commerce customer service field. To handle real knowledge and questions, we extend the classic "subject-predicate-object (SPO)" structure with property hierarchy, key-value structure and compound value type (CVT), and enhance traditional KBQA with constraints recognition and reasoning ability. We launch AliMe-KBQA in the Marketing Promotion scenario for merchants during the "Double 11" period in 2018 and other such promotional events afterwards. Online results suggest that AliMe-KBQA is not only able to gain better resolution and improve customer satisfaction, but also becomes the preferred knowledge management method by business knowledge staffs since it offers a more convenient and efficient management experience.
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