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The diffusion of AI and big data is reshaping decision-making processes by increasing the amount of information that supports decisions while reducing direct interaction with data and empirical evidence. This paradigm shift introduces new sources of uncertainty, as limited data observability results in ambiguity and a lack of interpretability. The need for the proper analysis of data-driven strategies motivates the search for new models that can describe this type of bounded access to knowledge. This contribution presents a novel theoretical model for uncertainty in knowledge representation and its transfer mediated by agents. We provide a dynamical description of knowledge states by endowing our model with a structure to compare and combine them. Specifically, an update is represented through combinations, and its explainability is based on its consistency in different dimensional representations. We look at inequivalent knowledge representations in terms of multiplicity of inferences, preference relations, and information measures. Furthermore, we define a formal analogy with two scenarios that illustrate non-classical uncertainty in terms of ambiguity (Ellsberg's model) and reasoning about knowledge mediated by other agents observing data (Wigner's friend). Finally, we discuss some implications of the proposed model for data-driven strategies, with special attention to reasoning under uncertainty about business value dimensions and the design of measurement tools for their assessment.

Energy consumption remains the main limiting factors in many IoT applications. In particular, micro-controllers consume far too much power. In order to overcome this problem, new circuit designs have been proposed and the use of spiking neurons and analog computing has emerged as it allows a very significant consumption reduction. However, working in the analog domain brings difficulty to handle the sequential processing of incoming signals as is needed in many use cases. In this paper, we use a bio-inspired phenomenon called Interacting Synapses to produce a time filter, without using non-biological techniques such as synaptic delays. We propose a model of neuron and synapses that fire for a specific range of delays between two incoming spikes, but do not react when this Inter-Spike Timing is not in that range. We study the parameters of the model to understand how to choose them and adapt the Inter-Spike Timing. The originality of the paper is to propose a new way, in the analog domain, to deal with temporal sequences.

Numerical simulations of kinetic problems can become prohibitively expensive due to their large memory footprint and computational costs. A method that has proven to successfully reduce these costs is the dynamical low-rank approximation (DLRA). One key question when using DLRA methods is the construction of robust time integrators that preserve the invariances and associated conservation laws of the original problem. In this work, we demonstrate that the augmented basis update & Galerkin integrator (BUG) preserves solution invariances and the associated conservation laws when using a conservative truncation step and an appropriate time and space discretization. We present numerical comparisons to existing conservative integrators and discuss advantages and disadvantages

Orthogonal meta-learners, such as DR-learner, R-learner and IF-learner, are increasingly used to estimate conditional average treatment effects. They improve convergence rates relative to na\"{\i}ve meta-learners (e.g., T-, S- and X-learner) through de-biasing procedures that involve applying standard learners to specifically transformed outcome data. This leads them to disregard the possibly constrained outcome space, which can be particularly problematic for dichotomous outcomes: these typically get transformed to values that are no longer constrained to the unit interval, making it difficult for standard learners to guarantee predictions within the unit interval. To address this, we construct orthogonal meta-learners for the prediction of counterfactual outcomes which respect the outcome space. As such, the obtained i-learner or imputation-learner is more generally expected to outperform existing learners, even when the outcome is unconstrained, as we confirm empirically in simulation studies and an analysis of critical care data. Our development also sheds broader light onto the construction of orthogonal learners for other estimands.

Parametricity is a property of the syntax of type theory implying, e.g., that there is only one function having the type of the polymorphic identity function. Parametricity is usually proven externally, and does not hold internally. Internalising it is difficult because once there is a term witnessing parametricity, it also has to be parametric itself and this results in the appearance of higher dimensional cubes. In previous theories with internal parametricity, either an explicit syntax for higher cubes is present or the theory is extended with a new sort for the interval. In this paper we present a type theory with internal parametricity which is a simple extension of Martin-L\"of type theory: there are a few new type formers, term formers and equations. Geometry is not explicit in this syntax, but emergent: the new operations and equations only refer to objects up to dimension 3. We show that this theory is modelled by presheaves over the BCH cube category. Fibrancy conditions are not needed because we use span-based rather than relational parametricity. We define a gluing model for this theory implying that external parametricity and canonicity hold. The theory can be seen as a special case of a new kind of modal type theory, and it is the simplest setting in which the computational properties of higher observational type theory can be demonstrated.

The illness-death model for chronic conditions is combined with a renewal equation for the number of newborns taking into account possibly different fertility rates in the healthy and diseased parts of the population. The resulting boundary value problem consists of a system of partial differential equations with an integral boundary condition. As an application, the boundary value problem is applied to an example about type 2 diabetes.

Generalized linear models (GLMs) are popular for data-analysis in almost all quantitative sciences, but the choice of likelihood family and link function is often difficult. This motivates the search for likelihoods and links that minimize the impact of potential misspecification. We perform a large-scale simulation study on double-bounded and lower-bounded response data where we systematically vary both true and assumed likelihoods and links. In contrast to previous studies, we also study posterior calibration and uncertainty metrics in addition to point-estimate accuracy. Our results indicate that certain likelihoods and links can be remarkably robust to misspecification, performing almost on par with their respective true counterparts. Additionally, normal likelihood models with identity link (i.e., linear regression) often achieve calibration comparable to the more structurally faithful alternatives, at least in the studied scenarios. On the basis of our findings, we provide practical suggestions for robust likelihood and link choices in GLMs.

In this paper I propose a generative model of supervised learning that unifies two approaches to supervised learning, using a concept of a correct loss function. Addressing two measurability problems, which have been ignored in statistical learning theory, I propose to use convergence in outer probability to characterize the consistency of a learning algorithm. Building upon these results, I extend a result due to Cucker-Smale, which addresses the learnability of a regression model, to the setting of a conditional probability estimation problem. Additionally, I present a variant of Vapnik-Stefanuyk's regularization method for solving stochastic ill-posed problems, and using it to prove the generalizability of overparameterized supervised learning models.

When the eigenvalues of the coefficient matrix for a linear scalar ordinary differential equation are of large magnitude, its solutions exhibit complicated behaviour, such as high-frequency oscillations, rapid growth or rapid decay. The cost of representing such solutions using standard techniques grows with the magnitudes of the eigenvalues. As a consequence, the running times of most solvers for ordinary differential equations also grow with these eigenvalues. However, a large class of scalar ordinary differential equations with slowly-varying coefficients admit slowly-varying phase functions that can be represented at a cost which is bounded independent of the magnitudes of the eigenvalues of the corresponding coefficient matrix. Here, we introduce a numerical algorithm for constructing slowly-varying phase functions which represent the solutions of a linear scalar ordinary differential equation. Our method's running time depends on the complexity of the equation's coefficients, but is bounded independent of the magnitudes of the equation's eigenvalues. Once the phase functions have been constructed, essentially any reasonable initial or boundary value problem for the scalar equation can be easily solved. We present the results of numerical experiments showing that, despite its greater generality, our algorithm is competitive with state-of-the-art methods for solving highly-oscillatory second order differential equations. We also compare our method with Magnus-type exponential integrators and find that our approach is orders of magnitude faster in the high-frequency regime.

We hypothesize that due to the greedy nature of learning in multi-modal deep neural networks, these models tend to rely on just one modality while under-fitting the other modalities. Such behavior is counter-intuitive and hurts the models' generalization, as we observe empirically. To estimate the model's dependence on each modality, we compute the gain on the accuracy when the model has access to it in addition to another modality. We refer to this gain as the conditional utilization rate. In the experiments, we consistently observe an imbalance in conditional utilization rates between modalities, across multiple tasks and architectures. Since conditional utilization rate cannot be computed efficiently during training, we introduce a proxy for it based on the pace at which the model learns from each modality, which we refer to as the conditional learning speed. We propose an algorithm to balance the conditional learning speeds between modalities during training and demonstrate that it indeed addresses the issue of greedy learning. The proposed algorithm improves the model's generalization on three datasets: Colored MNIST, Princeton ModelNet40, and NVIDIA Dynamic Hand Gesture.