Accurate load forecasting plays a vital role in numerous sectors, but accurately capturing the complex dynamics of dynamic power systems remains a challenge for traditional statistical models. For these reasons, time-series models (ARIMA) and deep-learning models (ANN, LSTM, GRU, etc.) are commonly deployed and often experience higher success. In this paper, we analyze the efficacy of the recently developed Transformer-based Neural Network model in Load forecasting. Transformer models have the potential to improve Load forecasting because of their ability to learn long-range dependencies derived from their Attention Mechanism. We apply several metaheuristics namely Differential Evolution to find the optimal hyperparameters of the Transformer-based Neural Network to produce accurate forecasts. Differential Evolution provides scalable, robust, global solutions to non-differentiable, multi-objective, or constrained optimization problems. Our work compares the proposed Transformer based Neural Network model integrated with different metaheuristic algorithms by their performance in Load forecasting based on numerical metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Our findings demonstrate the potential of metaheuristic-enhanced Transformer-based Neural Network models in Load forecasting accuracy and provide optimal hyperparameters for each model.
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Many stochastic processes in the physical and biological sciences can be modelled as Brownian dynamics with multiplicative noise. However, numerical integrators for these processes can lose accuracy or even fail to converge when the diffusion term is configuration-dependent. One remedy is to construct a transform to a constant-diffusion process and sample the transformed process instead. In this work, we explain how coordinate-based and time-rescaling-based transforms can be used either individually or in combination to map a general class of variable-diffusion Brownian motion processes into constant-diffusion ones. The transforms are invertible, thus allowing recovery of the original dynamics. We motivate our methodology using examples in one dimension before then considering multivariate diffusion processes. We illustrate the benefits of the transforms through numerical simulations, demonstrating how the right combination of integrator and transform can improve computational efficiency and the order of convergence to the invariant distribution. Notably, the transforms that we derive are applicable to a class of multibody, anisotropic Stokes-Einstein diffusion that has applications in biophysical modelling.
Honeypots play a crucial role in implementing various cyber deception techniques as they possess the capability to divert attackers away from valuable assets. Careful strategic placement of honeypots in networks should consider not only network aspects but also attackers' preferences. The allocation of honeypots in tactical networks under network mobility is of great interest. To achieve this objective, we present a game-theoretic approach that generates optimal honeypot allocation strategies within an attack/defense scenario. Our proposed approach takes into consideration the changes in network connectivity. In particular, we introduce a two-player dynamic game model that explicitly incorporates the future state evolution resulting from changes in network connectivity. The defender's objective is twofold: to maximize the likelihood of the attacker hitting a honeypot and to minimize the cost associated with deception and reconfiguration due to changes in network topology. We present an iterative algorithm to find Nash equilibrium strategies and analyze the scalability of the algorithm. Finally, we validate our approach and present numerical results based on simulations, demonstrating that our game model successfully enhances network security. Additionally, we have proposed additional enhancements to improve the scalability of the proposed approach.
The Metaverse is a new paradigm that aims to create a virtual environment consisting of numerous worlds, each of which will offer a different set of services. To deal with such a dynamic and complex scenario, considering the stringent quality of service requirements aimed at the 6th generation of communication systems (6G), one potential approach is to adopt self-sustaining strategies, which can be realized by employing Adaptive Artificial Intelligence (Adaptive AI) where models are continually re-trained with new data and conditions. One aspect of self-sustainability is the management of multiple access to the frequency spectrum. Although several innovative methods have been proposed to address this challenge, mostly using Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL), the problem of adapting agents to a non-stationary environment has not yet been precisely addressed. This paper fills in the gap in the current literature by investigating the problem of multiple access in multi-channel environments to maximize the throughput of the intelligent agent when the number of active User Equipments (UEs) may fluctuate over time. To solve the problem, a Double Deep Q-Learning (DDQL) technique empowered by Continual Learning (CL) is proposed to overcome the non-stationary situation, while the environment is unknown. Numerical simulations demonstrate that, compared to other well-known methods, the CL-DDQL algorithm achieves significantly higher throughputs with a considerably shorter convergence time in highly dynamic scenarios.
Data augmentation is a common practice to help generalization in the procedure of deep model training. In the context of physiological time series classification, previous research has primarily focused on label-invariant data augmentation methods. However, another class of augmentation techniques (\textit{i.e., Mixup}) that emerged in the computer vision field has yet to be fully explored in the time series domain. In this study, we systematically review the mix-based augmentations, including mixup, cutmix, and manifold mixup, on six physiological datasets, evaluating their performance across different sensory data and classification tasks. Our results demonstrate that the three mix-based augmentations can consistently improve the performance on the six datasets. More importantly, the improvement does not rely on expert knowledge or extensive parameter tuning. Lastly, we provide an overview of the unique properties of the mix-based augmentation methods and highlight the potential benefits of using the mix-based augmentation in physiological time series data.
Nowadays, while the demand for capacity continues to expand, the blossoming of Internet of Everything is bringing in a paradigm shift to new perceptions of communication networks, ushering in a plethora of totally unique services. To provide these services, Virtual Network Functions (VNFs) must be established and reachable by end-users, which will generate and consume massive volumes of data that must be processed locally for service responsiveness and scalability. For this to be realized, a solid cloud-network Integrated infrastructure is a necessity, and since cloud and network domains would be diverse in terms of characteristics but limited in terms of capability, communication and computing resources should be jointly controlled to unleash its full potential. Although several innovative methods have been proposed to allocate the resources, most of them either ignored network resources or relaxed the network as a simple graph, which are not applicable to Beyond 5G because of its dynamism and stringent QoS requirements. This paper fills in the gap by studying the joint problem of communication and computing resource allocation, dubbed CCRA, including VNF placement and assignment, traffic prioritization, and path selection considering capacity constraints as well as link and queuing delays, with the goal of minimizing overall cost. We formulate the problem as a non-linear programming model, and propose two approaches, dubbed B\&B-CCRA and WF-CCRA respectively, based on the Branch \& Bound and Water-Filling algorithms. Numerical simulations show that B\&B-CCRA can solve the problem optimally, whereas WF-CCRA can provide near-optimal solutions in significantly less time.
Controlled execution of dynamic motions in quadrupedal robots, especially those with articulated soft bodies, presents a unique set of challenges that traditional methods struggle to address efficiently. In this study, we tackle these issues by relying on a simple yet effective two-stage learning framework to generate dynamic motions for quadrupedal robots. First, a gradient-free evolution strategy is employed to discover simply represented control policies, eliminating the need for a predefined reference motion. Then, we refine these policies using deep reinforcement learning. Our approach enables the acquisition of complex motions like pronking and back-flipping, effectively from scratch. Additionally, our method simplifies the traditionally labour-intensive task of reward shaping, boosting the efficiency of the learning process. Importantly, our framework proves particularly effective for articulated soft quadrupeds, whose inherent compliance and adaptability make them ideal for dynamic tasks but also introduce unique control challenges.
Accurate analytical and numerical modeling of multiscale systems is a daunting task. The need to properly resolve spatial and temporal scales spanning multiple orders of magnitude pushes the limits of both our theoretical models as well as our computational capabilities. Rigorous upscaling techniques enable efficient computation while bounding/tracking errors and helping to make informed cost-accuracy tradeoffs. The biggest challenges arise when the applicability conditions of upscaled models break down. Here, we present a non-intrusive two-way (iterative bottom-up top-down) coupled hybrid model, applied to thermal runaway in battery packs, that combines fine-scale and upscaled equations in the same numerical simulation to achieve predictive accuracy while limiting computational costs. First, we develop two methods with different orders of accuracy to enforce continuity at the coupling boundary. Then, we derive weak (i.e., variational) formulations of the fine-scale and upscaled governing equations for finite element (FE) discretization and numerical implementation in FEniCS. We demonstrate that hybrid simulations can accurately predict the average temperature fields within error bounds determined a priori by homogenization theory. Finally, we demonstrate the computational efficiency of the hybrid algorithm against fine-scale simulations.
We consider a decentralized formulation of the active hypothesis testing (AHT) problem, where multiple agents gather noisy observations from the environment with the purpose of identifying the correct hypothesis. At each time step, agents have the option to select a sampling action. These different actions result in observations drawn from various distributions, each associated with a specific hypothesis. The agents collaborate to accomplish the task, where message exchanges between agents are allowed over a rate-limited communications channel. The objective is to devise a multi-agent policy that minimizes the Bayes risk. This risk comprises both the cost of sampling and the joint terminal cost incurred by the agents upon making a hypothesis declaration. Deriving optimal structured policies for AHT problems is generally mathematically intractable, even in the context of a single agent. As a result, recent efforts have turned to deep learning methodologies to address these problems, which have exhibited significant success in single-agent learning scenarios. In this paper, we tackle the multi-agent AHT formulation by introducing a novel algorithm rooted in the framework of deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. This algorithm, named Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for AHT (MARLA), operates at each time step by having each agent map its state to an action (sampling rule or stopping rule) using a trained deep neural network with the goal of minimizing the Bayes risk. We present a comprehensive set of experimental results that effectively showcase the agents' ability to learn collaborative strategies and enhance performance using MARLA. Furthermore, we demonstrate the superiority of MARLA over single-agent learning approaches. Finally, we provide an open-source implementation of the MARLA framework, for the benefit of researchers and developers in related domains.
Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) have been widely applied in various fields due to their significant power on processing graph-structured data. Typical GCN and its variants work under a homophily assumption (i.e., nodes with same class are prone to connect to each other), while ignoring the heterophily which exists in many real-world networks (i.e., nodes with different classes tend to form edges). Existing methods deal with heterophily by mainly aggregating higher-order neighborhoods or combing the immediate representations, which leads to noise and irrelevant information in the result. But these methods did not change the propagation mechanism which works under homophily assumption (that is a fundamental part of GCNs). This makes it difficult to distinguish the representation of nodes from different classes. To address this problem, in this paper we design a novel propagation mechanism, which can automatically change the propagation and aggregation process according to homophily or heterophily between node pairs. To adaptively learn the propagation process, we introduce two measurements of homophily degree between node pairs, which is learned based on topological and attribute information, respectively. Then we incorporate the learnable homophily degree into the graph convolution framework, which is trained in an end-to-end schema, enabling it to go beyond the assumption of homophily. More importantly, we theoretically prove that our model can constrain the similarity of representations between nodes according to their homophily degree. Experiments on seven real-world datasets demonstrate that this new approach outperforms the state-of-the-art methods under heterophily or low homophily, and gains competitive performance under homophily.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis.
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