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Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) are over-stressed to accelerate High-Performance Computing applications and are used to accelerate Deep Neural Networks in several domains where they have a life expectancy of many years. These conditions expose the GPUs hardware to (premature) aging, causing permanent faults to arise after the usual end-of-manufacturing test. Techniques to assess the impact of permanent faults in GPUs are then strongly required, thus allowing to estimate the reliability risk and to possibly mitigate it. In this paper, we present a method to evaluate the effects of permanent faults affecting the GPU scheduler and control units, which are the most peculiar and stressed resources, along with the first figures that allow quantifying these effects. We characterize over 5.83x10^5 permanent fault effects in the scheduler and controllers of a gate-level GPU model. Then, we map the observed error categories in software by instrumenting the code of 13 applications and two convolutional neural networks, injecting more than 1.65x10^5 permanent errors. Our two-level fault injection strategy reduces the evaluation time from hundreds of years of gate-level evaluation to hundreds of hours.We found that faults in the GPU parallelism management units can modify the opcode, the addresses, and the status of thread(s) and warp(s). The large majority (up to 99%) of these hardware permanent errors impacts the running software execution. Errors affecting the instruction operation or resource management hang the code, while 45% of errors in the parallelism management or control-flow induce silent data corruptions.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved widespread success on a variety of in-context few-shot tasks, but this success is typically evaluated via correctness rather than consistency. We argue that self-consistency is an important criteria for valid multi-step reasoning in tasks where the solution is composed of the answers to multiple sub-steps. We propose two types of self-consistency that are particularly important for multi-step reasoning -- hypothetical consistency (a model's ability to predict what its output would be in a hypothetical other context) and compositional consistency (consistency of a model's final outputs when intermediate sub-steps are replaced with the model's outputs for those steps). We demonstrate that multiple variants of the GPT-3/-4 models exhibit poor consistency rates across both types of consistency on a variety of tasks.

Neural abstractions have been recently introduced as formal approximations of complex, nonlinear dynamical models. They comprise a neural ODE and a certified upper bound on the error between the abstract neural network and the concrete dynamical model. So far neural abstractions have exclusively been obtained as neural networks consisting entirely of $ReLU$ activation functions, resulting in neural ODE models that have piecewise affine dynamics, and which can be equivalently interpreted as linear hybrid automata. In this work, we observe that the utility of an abstraction depends on its use: some scenarios might require coarse abstractions that are easier to analyse, whereas others might require more complex, refined abstractions. We therefore consider neural abstractions of alternative shapes, namely either piecewise constant or nonlinear non-polynomial (specifically, obtained via sigmoidal activations). We employ formal inductive synthesis procedures to generate neural abstractions that result in dynamical models with these semantics. Empirically, we demonstrate the trade-off that these different neural abstraction templates have vis-a-vis their precision and synthesis time, as well as the time required for their safety verification (done via reachability computation). We improve existing synthesis techniques to enable abstraction of higher-dimensional models, and additionally discuss the abstraction of complex neural ODEs to improve the efficiency of reachability analysis for these models.

Deep neural networks are over-parameterized and easily overfit the datasets they train on. In the extreme case, it has been shown that these networks can memorize a training set with fully randomized labels. We propose using the curvature of loss function around each training sample, averaged over training epochs, as a measure of memorization of the sample. We use this metric to study the generalization versus memorization properties of different samples in popular image datasets and show that it captures memorization statistics well, both qualitatively and quantitatively. We first show that the high curvature samples visually correspond to long-tailed, mislabeled, or conflicting samples, those that are most likely to be memorized. This analysis helps us find, to the best of our knowledge, a novel failure mode on the CIFAR100 and ImageNet datasets: that of duplicated images with differing labels. Quantitatively, we corroborate the validity of our scores via two methods. First, we validate our scores against an independent and comprehensively calculated baseline, by showing high cosine similarity with the memorization scores released by Feldman and Zhang (2020). Second, we inject corrupted samples which are memorized by the network, and show that these are learned with high curvature. To this end, we synthetically mislabel a random subset of the dataset. We overfit a network to it and show that sorting by curvature yields high AUROC values for identifying the corrupted samples. An added advantage of our method is that it is scalable, as it requires training only a single network as opposed to the thousands trained by the baseline, while capturing the aforementioned failure mode that the baseline fails to identify.

Unlocking the potential of deep learning in Peak-Hour Series Forecasting (PHSF) remains a critical yet underexplored task in various domains. While state-of-the-art deep learning models excel in regular Time Series Forecasting (TSF), they struggle to achieve comparable results in PHSF. This can be attributed to the challenges posed by the high degree of non-stationarity in peak-hour series, which makes direct forecasting more difficult than standard TSF. Additionally, manually extracting the maximum value from regular forecasting results leads to suboptimal performance due to models minimizing the mean deficit. To address these issues, this paper presents Seq2Peak, a novel framework designed specifically for PHSF tasks, bridging the performance gap observed in TSF models. Seq2Peak offers two key components: the CyclicNorm pipeline to mitigate the non-stationarity issue and a simple yet effective trainable-parameter-free peak-hour decoder with a hybrid loss function that utilizes both the original series and peak-hour series as supervised signals. Extensive experimentation on publicly available time series datasets demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed framework, yielding a remarkable average relative improvement of 37.7% across four real-world datasets for both transformer- and non-transformer-based TSF models.

Identification of standard mediated effects such as the natural indirect effect relies on heavy causal assumptions. By circumventing such assumptions, so-called randomized interventional indirect effects have gained popularity in the mediation literature. Here, I introduce properties one might demand of an indirect effect measure in order for it to have a true mediational interpretation. For instance, the sharp null criterion requires an indirect effect measure to be null whenever no individual-level indirect effect exists. I show that without stronger assumptions, randomized interventional indirect effects do not satisfy such criteria. I additionally discuss alternative causal interpretations of such effects.

Despite the impressive generalization capabilities of deep neural networks, they have been repeatedly shown to be overconfident when they are wrong. Fixing this issue is known as model calibration, and has consequently received much attention in the form of modified training schemes and post-training calibration procedures such as temperature scaling. While temperature scaling is frequently used because of its simplicity, it is often outperformed by modified training schemes. In this work, we identify a specific bottleneck for the performance of temperature scaling. We show that for empirical risk minimizers for a general set of distributions in which the supports of classes have overlaps, the performance of temperature scaling degrades with the amount of overlap between classes, and asymptotically becomes no better than random when there are a large number of classes. On the other hand, we prove that optimizing a modified form of the empirical risk induced by the Mixup data augmentation technique can in fact lead to reasonably good calibration performance, showing that training-time calibration may be necessary in some situations. We also verify that our theoretical results reflect practice by showing that Mixup significantly outperforms empirical risk minimization (with respect to multiple calibration metrics) on image classification benchmarks with class overlaps introduced in the form of label noise.

Assessing causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding is a challenging problem. Existing studies leveraged proxy variables or multiple treatments to adjust for the confounding bias. In particular, the latter approach attributes the impact on a single outcome to multiple treatments, allowing estimating latent variables for confounding control. Nevertheless, these methods primarily focus on a single outcome, whereas in many real-world scenarios, there is greater interest in studying the effects on multiple outcomes. Besides, these outcomes are often coupled with multiple treatments. Examples include the intensive care unit (ICU), where health providers evaluate the effectiveness of therapies on multiple health indicators. To accommodate these scenarios, we consider a new setting dubbed as multiple treatments and multiple outcomes. We then show that parallel studies of multiple outcomes involved in this setting can assist each other in causal identification, in the sense that we can exploit other treatments and outcomes as proxies for each treatment effect under study. We proceed with a causal discovery method that can effectively identify such proxies for causal estimation. The utility of our method is demonstrated in synthetic data and sepsis disease.

Current literature, aiming to surpass the "Chain-of-Thought" approach, often resorts to an external modus operandi involving halting, modifying, and then resuming the generation process to boost Large Language Models' (LLMs) reasoning capacities. This mode escalates the number of query requests, leading to increased costs, memory, and computational overheads. Addressing this, we propose the Algorithm of Thoughts -- a novel strategy that propels LLMs through algorithmic reasoning pathways, pioneering a new mode of in-context learning. By employing algorithmic examples, we exploit the innate recurrence dynamics of LLMs, expanding their idea exploration with merely one or a few queries. Our technique outperforms earlier single-query methods and stands on par with a recent multi-query strategy that employs an extensive tree search algorithm. Intriguingly, our results suggest that instructing an LLM using an algorithm can lead to performance surpassing that of the algorithm itself, hinting at LLM's inherent ability to weave its intuition into optimized searches. We probe into the underpinnings of our method's efficacy and its nuances in application.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have proven their exceptional capabilities in performing language-related tasks. However, their deployment poses significant challenges due to their considerable memory and storage requirements. In response to this issue, weight-only quantization, particularly 3 and 4-bit weight-only quantization, has emerged as one of the most viable solutions. As the number of bits decreases, the quantization grid broadens, thus emphasizing the importance of up and down rounding. While previous studies have demonstrated that fine-tuning up and down rounding with the addition of perturbations can enhance accuracy in some scenarios, our study is driven by the precise and limited boundary of these perturbations, where only the threshold for altering the rounding value is of significance. Consequently, we propose a concise and highly effective approach for optimizing the weight rounding task. Our method, named SignRound, involves lightweight block-wise tuning using signed gradient descent, enabling us to achieve outstanding results within 400 steps. SignRound competes impressively against recent methods without introducing additional inference overhead. The source code will be publicly available at \url{//github.com/intel/neural-compressor} soon.