We propose a new method for multivariate response regression and covariance estimation when elements of the response vector are of mixed types, for example some continuous and some discrete. Our method is based on a model which assumes the observable mixed-type response vector is connected to a latent multivariate normal response linear regression through a link function. We explore the properties of this model and show its parameters are identifiable under reasonable conditions. We impose no parametric restrictions on the covariance of the latent normal other than positive definiteness, thereby avoiding assumptions about unobservable variables which can be difficult to verify in practice. To accommodate this generality, we propose a novel algorithm for approximate maximum likelihood estimation that works "off-the-shelf" with many different combinations of response types, and which scales well in the dimension of the response vector. Our method typically gives better predictions and parameter estimates than fitting separate models for the different response types and allows for approximate likelihood ratio testing of relevant hypotheses such as independence of responses. The usefulness of the proposed method is illustrated in simulations; and one biomedical and one genomic data example.
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Anomaly detection among a large number of processes arises in many applications ranging from dynamic spectrum access to cybersecurity. In such problems one can often obtain noisy observations aggregated from a chosen subset of processes that conforms to a tree structure. The distribution of these observations, based on which the presence of anomalies is detected, may be only partially known. This gives rise to the need for a search strategy designed to account for both the sample complexity and the detection accuracy, as well as cope with statistical models that are known only up to some missing parameters. In this work we propose a sequential search strategy using two variations of the Generalized Local Likelihood Ratio statistic. Our proposed Hierarchical Dynamic Search (HDS) strategy is shown to be order-optimal with respect to the size of the search space and asymptotically optimal with respect to the detection accuracy. An explicit upper bound on the error probability of HDS is established for the finite sample regime. Extensive experiments are conducted, demonstrating the performance gains of HDS over existing methods.
We consider the question of adaptive data analysis within the framework of convex optimization. We ask how many samples are needed in order to compute $\epsilon$-accurate estimates of $O(1/\epsilon^2)$ gradients queried by gradient descent, and we provide two intermediate answers to this question. First, we show that for a general analyst (not necessarily gradient descent) $\Omega(1/\epsilon^3)$ samples are required. This rules out the possibility of a foolproof mechanism. Our construction builds upon a new lower bound (that may be of interest of its own right) for an analyst that may ask several non adaptive questions in a batch of fixed and known $T$ rounds of adaptivity and requires a fraction of true discoveries. We show that for such an analyst $\Omega (\sqrt{T}/\epsilon^2)$ samples are necessary. Second, we show that, under certain assumptions on the oracle, in an interaction with gradient descent $\tilde \Omega(1/\epsilon^{2.5})$ samples are necessary. Our assumptions are that the oracle has only \emph{first order access} and is \emph{post-hoc generalizing}. First order access means that it can only compute the gradients of the sampled function at points queried by the algorithm. Our assumption of \emph{post-hoc generalization} follows from existing lower bounds for statistical queries. More generally then, we provide a generic reduction from the standard setting of statistical queries to the problem of estimating gradients queried by gradient descent. These results are in contrast with classical bounds that show that with $O(1/\epsilon^2)$ samples one can optimize the population risk to accuracy of $O(\epsilon)$ but, as it turns out, with spurious gradients.
Covariance estimation for matrix-valued data has received an increasing interest in applications. Unlike previous works that rely heavily on matrix normal distribution assumption and the requirement of fixed matrix size, we propose a class of distribution-free regularized covariance estimation methods for high-dimensional matrix data under a separability condition and a bandable covariance structure. Under these conditions, the original covariance matrix is decomposed into a Kronecker product of two bandable small covariance matrices representing the variability over row and column directions. We formulate a unified framework for estimating bandable covariance, and introduce an efficient algorithm based on rank one unconstrained Kronecker product approximation. The convergence rates of the proposed estimators are established, and the derived minimax lower bound shows our proposed estimator is rate-optimal under certain divergence regimes of matrix size. We further introduce a class of robust covariance estimators and provide theoretical guarantees to deal with heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate the superior finite-sample performance of our methods using simulations and real applications from a gridded temperature anomalies dataset and a S&P 500 stock data analysis.
Many recent state-of-the-art (SOTA) optical flow models use finite-step recurrent update operations to emulate traditional algorithms by encouraging iterative refinements toward a stable flow estimation. However, these RNNs impose large computation and memory overheads, and are not directly trained to model such stable estimation. They can converge poorly and thereby suffer from performance degradation. To combat these drawbacks, we propose deep equilibrium (DEQ) flow estimators, an approach that directly solves for the flow as the infinite-level fixed point of an implicit layer (using any black-box solver), and differentiates through this fixed point analytically (thus requiring $O(1)$ training memory). This implicit-depth approach is not predicated on any specific model, and thus can be applied to a wide range of SOTA flow estimation model designs. The use of these DEQ flow estimators allows us to compute the flow faster using, e.g., fixed-point reuse and inexact gradients, consumes $4\sim6\times$ times less training memory than the recurrent counterpart, and achieves better results with the same computation budget. In addition, we propose a novel, sparse fixed-point correction scheme to stabilize our DEQ flow estimators, which addresses a longstanding challenge for DEQ models in general. We test our approach in various realistic settings and show that it improves SOTA methods on Sintel and KITTI datasets with substantially better computational and memory efficiency.
We investigate the feature compression of high-dimensional ridge regression using the optimal subsampling technique. Specifically, based on the basic framework of random sampling algorithm on feature for ridge regression and the A-optimal design criterion, we first obtain a set of optimal subsampling probabilities. Considering that the obtained probabilities are uneconomical, we then propose the nearly optimal ones. With these probabilities, a two step iterative algorithm is established which has lower computational cost and higher accuracy. We provide theoretical analysis and numerical experiments to support the proposed methods. Numerical results demonstrate the decent performance of our methods.
The classical coding theorem in Kolmogorov complexity states that if an $n$-bit string $x$ is sampled with probability $\delta$ by an algorithm with prefix-free domain then K$(x) \leq \log(1/\delta) + O(1)$. In a recent work, Lu and Oliveira [LO21] established an unconditional time-bounded version of this result, by showing that if $x$ can be efficiently sampled with probability $\delta$ then rKt$(x) = O(\log(1/\delta)) + O(\log n)$, where rKt denotes the randomized analogue of Levin's Kt complexity. Unfortunately, this result is often insufficient when transferring applications of the classical coding theorem to the time-bounded setting, as it achieves a $O(\log(1/\delta))$ bound instead of the information-theoretic optimal $\log(1/\delta)$. We show a coding theorem for rKt with a factor of $2$. As in previous work, our coding theorem is efficient in the sense that it provides a polynomial-time probabilistic algorithm that, when given $x$, the code of the sampler, and $\delta$, it outputs, with probability $\ge 0.99$, a probabilistic representation of $x$ that certifies this rKt complexity bound. Assuming the security of cryptographic pseudorandom generators, we show that no efficient coding theorem can achieve a bound of the form rKt$(x) \leq (2 - o(1)) \cdot \log(1/\delta) +$ poly$(\log n)$. Under a weaker assumption, we exhibit a gap between efficient coding theorems and existential coding theorems with near-optimal parameters. We consider pK$^t$ complexity [GKLO22], a variant of rKt where the randomness is public and the time bound is fixed. We observe the existence of an optimal coding theorem for pK$^t$, and employ this result to establish an unconditional version of a theorem of Antunes and Fortnow [AF09] which characterizes the worst-case running times of languages that are in average polynomial-time over all P-samplable distributions.
Let $X^{(n)}$ be an observation sampled from a distribution $P_{\theta}^{(n)}$ with an unknown parameter $\theta,$ $\theta$ being a vector in a Banach space $E$ (most often, a high-dimensional space of dimension $d$). We study the problem of estimation of $f(\theta)$ for a functional $f:E\mapsto {\mathbb R}$ of some smoothness $s>0$ based on an observation $X^{(n)}\sim P_{\theta}^{(n)}.$ Assuming that there exists an estimator $\hat \theta_n=\hat \theta_n(X^{(n)})$ of parameter $\theta$ such that $\sqrt{n}(\hat \theta_n-\theta)$ is sufficiently close in distribution to a mean zero Gaussian random vector in $E,$ we construct a functional $g:E\mapsto {\mathbb R}$ such that $g(\hat \theta_n)$ is an asymptotically normal estimator of $f(\theta)$ with $\sqrt{n}$ rate provided that $s>\frac{1}{1-\alpha}$ and $d\leq n^{\alpha}$ for some $\alpha\in (0,1).$ We also derive general upper bounds on Orlicz norm error rates for estimator $g(\hat \theta)$ depending on smoothness $s,$ dimension $d,$ sample size $n$ and the accuracy of normal approximation of $\sqrt{n}(\hat \theta_n-\theta).$ In particular, this approach yields asymptotically efficient estimators in some high-dimensional exponential models.
Kernel smooth is the most fundamental technique for data density and regression estimation. However, time-consuming is the biggest obstacle for the application that the direct evaluation of kernel smooth for $N$ samples needs ${O}\left( {{N}^{2}} \right)$ operations. People have developed fast smooth algorithms using the idea of binning with FFT. Unfortunately, the accuracy is not controllable, and the implementation for multivariable and its bandwidth selection for the fast method is not available. Hence, we introduce a new MATLAB toolbox for fast multivariate kernel regression with the idea of non-uniform FFT (NUFFT), which implemented the algorithm for $M$ gridding points with ${O}\left( N+M\log M \right)$ complexity and accuracy controllability. The bandwidth selection problem utilizes the Fast Monte-Carlo algorithm to estimate the degree of freedom (DF), saving enormous cross-validation time even better when data share the same grid space for multiple regression. Up to now, this is the first toolbox for fast-binning high-dimensional kernel regression. Moreover, the estimation for local polynomial regression, the conditional variance for the heteroscedastic model, and the complex-valued datasets are also implemented in this toolbox. The performance is demonstrated with simulations and an application on the quantitive EEG.
One of the most important problems in system identification and statistics is how to estimate the unknown parameters of a given model. Optimization methods and specialized procedures, such as Empirical Minimization (EM) can be used in case the likelihood function can be computed. For situations where one can only simulate from a parametric model, but the likelihood is difficult or impossible to evaluate, a technique known as the Two-Stage (TS) Approach can be applied to obtain reliable parametric estimates. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of theoretical justification for TS. In this paper, we propose a statistical decision-theoretical derivation of TS, which leads to Bayesian and Minimax estimators. We also show how to apply the TS approach on models for independent and identically distributed samples, by computing quantiles of the data as a first step, and using a linear function as the second stage. The proposed method is illustrated via numerical simulations.
We present a new sublinear time algorithm for approximating the spectral density (eigenvalue distribution) of an $n\times n$ normalized graph adjacency or Laplacian matrix. The algorithm recovers the spectrum up to $\epsilon$ accuracy in the Wasserstein-1 distance in $O(n\cdot \text{poly}(1/\epsilon))$ time given sample access to the graph. This result compliments recent work by David Cohen-Steiner, Weihao Kong, Christian Sohler, and Gregory Valiant (2018), which obtains a solution with runtime independent of $n$, but exponential in $1/\epsilon$. We conjecture that the trade-off between dimension dependence and accuracy is inherent. Our method is simple and works well experimentally. It is based on a Chebyshev polynomial moment matching method that employees randomized estimators for the matrix trace. We prove that, for any Hermitian $A$, this moment matching method returns an $\epsilon$ approximation to the spectral density using just $O({1}/{\epsilon})$ matrix-vector products with $A$. By leveraging stability properties of the Chebyshev polynomial three-term recurrence, we then prove that the method is amenable to the use of coarse approximate matrix-vector products. Our sublinear time algorithm follows from combining this result with a novel sampling algorithm for approximating matrix-vector products with a normalized graph adjacency matrix. Of independent interest, we show a similar result for the widely used \emph{kernel polynomial method} (KPM), proving that this practical algorithm nearly matches the theoretical guarantees of our moment matching method. Our analysis uses tools from Jackson's seminal work on approximation with positive polynomial kernels.
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