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Linear regression adjustment is commonly used to analyse randomised controlled experiments due to its efficiency and robustness against model misspecification. Current testing and interval estimation procedures leverage the asymptotic distribution of such estimators to provide Type-I error and coverage guarantees that hold only at a single sample size. Here, we develop the theory for the anytime-valid analogues of such procedures, enabling linear regression adjustment in the sequential analysis of randomised experiments. We first provide sequential $F$-tests and confidence sequences for the parametric linear model, which provide time-uniform Type-I error and coverage guarantees that hold for all sample sizes. We then relax all linear model parametric assumptions in randomised designs and provide nonparametric model-free sequential tests and confidence sequences for treatment effects. This formally allows experiments to be continuously monitored for significance, stopped early, and safeguards against statistical malpractices in data collection. A particular feature of our results is their simplicity. Our test statistics and confidence sequences all emit closed-form expressions, which are functions of statistics directly available from a standard linear regression table. We illustrate our methodology with the sequential analysis of software A/B experiments at Netflix, performing regression adjustment with pre-treatment outcomes.

We prove an inverse approximation theorem for the approximation of nonlinear sequence-to-sequence relationships using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). This is a so-called Bernstein-type result in approximation theory, which deduces properties of a target function under the assumption that it can be effectively approximated by a hypothesis space. In particular, we show that nonlinear sequence relationships that can be stably approximated by nonlinear RNNs must have an exponential decaying memory structure - a notion that can be made precise. This extends the previously identified curse of memory in linear RNNs into the general nonlinear setting, and quantifies the essential limitations of the RNN architecture for learning sequential relationships with long-term memory. Based on the analysis, we propose a principled reparameterization method to overcome the limitations. Our theoretical results are confirmed by numerical experiments. The code has been released in //github.com/radarFudan/Curse-of-memory

A confidence sequence (CS) is a sequence of confidence sets that contains a target parameter of an underlying stochastic process at any time step with high probability. This paper proposes a new approach to constructing CSs for means of bounded multivariate stochastic processes using a general gambling framework, extending the recently established coin toss framework for bounded random processes. The proposed gambling framework provides a general recipe for constructing CSs for categorical and probability-vector-valued observations, as well as for general bounded multidimensional observations through a simple reduction. This paper specifically explores the use of the mixture portfolio, akin to Cover's universal portfolio, in the proposed framework and investigates the properties of the resulting CSs. Simulations demonstrate the tightness of these confidence sequences compared to existing methods. When applied to the sampling without-replacement setting for finite categorical data, it is shown that the resulting CS based on a universal gambling strategy is provably tighter than that of the posterior-prior ratio martingale proposed by Waudby-Smith and Ramdas.

The partial Gromov-Wasserstein (PGW) problem facilitates the comparison of measures with unequal masses residing in potentially distinct metric spaces, thereby enabling unbalanced and partial matching across these spaces. In this paper, we demonstrate that the PGW problem can be transformed into a variant of the Gromov-Wasserstein problem, akin to the conversion of the partial optimal transport problem into an optimal transport problem. This transformation leads to two new solvers, mathematically and computationally equivalent, based on the Frank-Wolfe algorithm, that provide efficient solutions to the PGW problem. We further establish that the PGW problem constitutes a metric for metric measure spaces. Finally, we validate the effectiveness of our proposed solvers in terms of computation time and performance on shape-matching and positive-unlabeled learning problems, comparing them against existing baselines.

We study an extension of the cardinality-constrained knapsack problem wherein each item has a concave piecewise linear utility structure (CCKP), which is motivated by applications such as resource management problems in monitoring and surveillance tasks. Our main contributions are combinatorial algorithms for the offline CCKP and an online version of the CCKP. For the offline problem, we present a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme and show that it can be cast as the maximization of a submodular function with cardinality constraints; the latter property allows us to derive a greedy $(1 - \frac{1}{e})$-approximation algorithm. For the online CCKP in the random order model, we derive a $\frac{10.427}{\alpha}$-competitive algorithm based on $\alpha$-approximation algorithms for the offline CCKP; moreover, we derive stronger guarantees for the cases wherein the cardinality capacity is very small or relatively large. Finally, we investigate the empirical performance of the proposed algorithms in numerical experiments.

Contextual Markov decision processes (CMDPs) describe a class of reinforcement learning problems in which the transition kernels and reward functions can change over time with different MDPs indexed by a context variable. While CMDPs serve as an important framework to model many real-world applications with time-varying environments, they are largely unexplored from theoretical perspective. In this paper, we study CMDPs under two linear function approximation models: Model I with context-varying representations and common linear weights for all contexts; and Model II with common representations for all contexts and context-varying linear weights. For both models, we propose novel model-based algorithms and show that they enjoy guaranteed $\epsilon$-suboptimality gap with desired polynomial sample complexity. In particular, instantiating our result for the first model to the tabular CMDP improves the existing result by removing the reachability assumption. Our result for the second model is the first-known result for such a type of function approximation models. Comparison between our results for the two models further indicates that having context-varying features leads to much better sample efficiency than having common representations for all contexts under linear CMDPs.

Dimensionality reduction methods, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and factor analysis, are central to many problems in data science. There are, however, serious and well-understood challenges to finding robust low dimensional approximations for data with significant heteroskedastic noise. This paper introduces a relaxed version of Minimum Trace Factor Analysis (MTFA), a convex optimization method with roots dating back to the work of Ledermann in 1940. This relaxation is particularly effective at not overfitting to heteroskedastic perturbations and addresses the commonly cited Heywood cases in factor analysis and the recently identified "curse of ill-conditioning" for existing spectral methods. We provide theoretical guarantees on the accuracy of the resulting low rank subspace and the convergence rate of the proposed algorithm to compute that matrix. We develop a number of interesting connections to existing methods, including HeteroPCA, Lasso, and Soft-Impute, to fill an important gap in the already large literature on low rank matrix estimation. Numerical experiments benchmark our results against several recent proposals for dealing with heteroskedastic noise.

Modern deterministic retrieval pipelines prioritize achieving state-of-the-art performance but often lack interpretability in decision-making. These models face challenges in assessing uncertainty, leading to overconfident predictions. To overcome these limitations, we integrate uncertainty calibration and interpretability into a retrieval pipeline. Specifically, we introduce Bayesian methodologies and multi-perspective retrieval to calibrate uncertainty within a retrieval pipeline. We incorporate techniques such as LIME and SHAP to analyze the behavior of a black-box reranker model. The importance scores derived from these explanation methodologies serve as supplementary relevance scores to enhance the base reranker model. We evaluate the resulting performance enhancements achieved through uncertainty calibration and interpretable reranking on Question Answering and Fact Checking tasks. Our methods demonstrate substantial performance improvements across three KILT datasets.

This work proposes a decision-making framework for partially observable systems in continuous time with discrete state and action spaces. As optimal decision-making becomes intractable for large state spaces we employ approximation methods for the filtering and the control problem that scale well with an increasing number of states. Specifically, we approximate the high-dimensional filtering distribution by projecting it onto a parametric family of distributions, and integrate it into a control heuristic based on the fully observable system to obtain a scalable policy. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on several partially observed systems, including queueing systems and chemical reaction networks.

Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis, thereby allowing manual manipulation in predicting the final answer.