Cross-validation is the standard approach for tuning parameter selection in many non-parametric regression problems. However its use is less common in change-point regression, perhaps as its prediction error-based criterion may appear to permit small spurious changes and hence be less well-suited to estimation of the number and location of change-points. We show that in fact the problems of cross-validation with squared error loss are more severe and can lead to systematic under- or over-estimation of the number of change-points, and highly suboptimal estimation of the mean function in simple settings where changes are easily detectable. We propose two simple approaches to remedy these issues, the first involving the use of absolute error rather than squared error loss, and the second involving modifying the holdout sets used. For the latter, we provide conditions that permit consistent estimation of the number of change-points for a general change-point estimation procedure. We show these conditions are satisfied for optimal partitioning using new results on its performance when supplied with the incorrect number of change-points. Numerical experiments show that the absolute error approach in particular is competitive with common change-point methods using classical tuning parameter choices when error distributions are well-specified, but can substantially outperform these in misspecified models. An implementation of our methodology is available in the R package crossvalidationCP on CRAN.
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We initiate the study of fairness for ordinal regression. We adapt two fairness notions previously considered in fair ranking and propose a strategy for training a predictor that is approximately fair according to either notion. Our predictor has the form of a threshold model, composed of a scoring function and a set of thresholds, and our strategy is based on a reduction to fair binary classification for learning the scoring function and local search for choosing the thresholds. We provide generalization guarantees on the error and fairness violation of our predictor, and we illustrate the effectiveness of our approach in extensive experiments.
This paper considers identification and estimation of the causal effect of the time Z until a subject is treated on a survival outcome T. The treatment is not randomly assigned, T is randomly right censored by a random variable C and the time to treatment Z is right censored by min(T,C). The endogeneity issue is treated using an instrumental variable explaining Z and independent of the error term of the model. We study identification in a fully nonparametric framework. We show that our specification generates an integral equation, of which the regression function of interest is a solution. We provide identification conditions that rely on this identification equation. For estimation purposes, we assume that the regression function follows a parametric model. We propose an estimation procedure and give conditions under which the estimator is asymptotically normal. The estimators exhibit good finite sample properties in simulations. Our methodology is applied to find evidence supporting the efficacy of a therapy for burn-out.
This paper characterizes an achievable information-energy region of simultaneous information and energy transmission over an additive white Gaussian noise channel. This analysis is performed in the finite block-length regime with finite constellations. More specifically, a method for constructing a family of codes is proposed and the set of achievable tuples of information rate, energy rate, decoding error probability (DEP) and energy outage probability (EOP) is characterized. Using existing converse results, it is shown that the construction is information rate, energy rate, and EOP optimal. The achieved DEP is, however, sub-optimal.
In modern data analysis, sparse model selection becomes inevitable once the number of predictors variables is very high. It is well-known that model selection procedures like the Lasso or Boosting tend to overfit on real data. The celebrated Stability Selection overcomes these weaknesses by aggregating models, based on subsamples of the training data, followed by choosing a stable predictor set which is usually much sparser than the predictor sets from the raw models. The standard Stability Selection is based on a global criterion, namely the per-family error rate, while additionally requiring expert knowledge to suitably configure the hyperparameters. Since model selection depends on the loss function, i.e., predictor sets selected w.r.t. some particular loss function differ from those selected w.r.t. some other loss function, we propose a Stability Selection variant which respects the chosen loss function via an additional validation step based on out-of-sample validation data, optionally enhanced with an exhaustive search strategy. Our Stability Selection variants are widely applicable and user-friendly. Moreover, our Stability Selection variants can avoid the issue of severe underfitting which affects the original Stability Selection for noisy high-dimensional data, so our priority is not to avoid false positives at all costs but to result in a sparse stable model with which one can make predictions. Experiments where we consider both regression and binary classification and where we use Boosting as model selection algorithm reveal a significant precision improvement compared to raw Boosting models while not suffering from any of the mentioned issues of the original Stability Selection.
Label Ranking (LR) corresponds to the problem of learning a hypothesis that maps features to rankings over a finite set of labels. We adopt a nonparametric regression approach to LR and obtain theoretical performance guarantees for this fundamental practical problem. We introduce a generative model for Label Ranking, in noiseless and noisy nonparametric regression settings, and provide sample complexity bounds for learning algorithms in both cases. In the noiseless setting, we study the LR problem with full rankings and provide computationally efficient algorithms using decision trees and random forests in the high-dimensional regime. In the noisy setting, we consider the more general cases of LR with incomplete and partial rankings from a statistical viewpoint and obtain sample complexity bounds using the One-Versus-One approach of multiclass classification. Finally, we complement our theoretical contributions with experiments, aiming to understand how the input regression noise affects the observed output.
We devise coresets for kernel $k$-Means with a general kernel, and use them to obtain new, more efficient, algorithms. Kernel $k$-Means has superior clustering capability compared to classical $k$-Means, particularly when clusters are non-linearly separable, but it also introduces significant computational challenges. We address this computational issue by constructing a coreset, which is a reduced dataset that accurately preserves the clustering costs. Our main result is a coreset for kernel $k$-Means that works for a general kernel and has size $\mathrm{poly}(k\epsilon^{-1})$. Our new coreset both generalizes and greatly improves all previous results; moreover, it can be constructed in time near-linear in $n$. This result immediately implies new algorithms for kernel $k$-Means, such as a $(1+\epsilon)$-approximation in time near-linear in $n$, and a streaming algorithm using space and update time $\mathrm{poly}(k \epsilon^{-1} \log n)$. We validate our coreset on various datasets with different kernels. Our coreset performs consistently well, achieving small errors while using very few points. We show that our coresets can speed up kernel $k$-Means++ (the kernelized version of the widely used $k$-Means++ algorithm), and we further use this faster kernel $k$-Means++ for spectral clustering. In both applications, we achieve up to 1000x speedup while the error is comparable to baselines that do not use coresets.
We study regression adjustments with additional covariates in randomized experiments under covariate-adaptive randomizations (CARs) when subject compliance is imperfect. We develop a regression-adjusted local average treatment effect (LATE) estimator that is proven to improve efficiency in the estimation of LATEs under CARs. Our adjustments can be parametric in linear and nonlinear forms, nonparametric, and high-dimensional. Even when the adjustments are misspecified, our proposed estimator is still consistent and asymptotically normal, and their inference method still achieves the exact asymptotic size under the null. When the adjustments are correctly specified, our estimator achieves the minimum asymptotic variance. When the adjustments are parametrically misspecified, we construct a new estimator which is weakly more efficient than linearly and nonlinearly adjusted estimators, as well as the one without any adjustments. Simulation evidence and empirical application confirm efficiency gains achieved by regression adjustments relative to both the estimator without adjustment and the standard two-stage least squares estimator.
Heatmap-based methods dominate in the field of human pose estimation by modelling the output distribution through likelihood heatmaps. In contrast, regression-based methods are more efficient but suffer from inferior performance. In this work, we explore maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to develop an efficient and effective regression-based methods. From the perspective of MLE, adopting different regression losses is making different assumptions about the output density function. A density function closer to the true distribution leads to a better regression performance. In light of this, we propose a novel regression paradigm with Residual Log-likelihood Estimation (RLE) to capture the underlying output distribution. Concretely, RLE learns the change of the distribution instead of the unreferenced underlying distribution to facilitate the training process. With the proposed reparameterization design, our method is compatible with off-the-shelf flow models. The proposed method is effective, efficient and flexible. We show its potential in various human pose estimation tasks with comprehensive experiments. Compared to the conventional regression paradigm, regression with RLE bring 12.4 mAP improvement on MSCOCO without any test-time overhead. Moreover, for the first time, especially on multi-person pose estimation, our regression method is superior to the heatmap-based methods. Our code is available at //github.com/Jeff-sjtu/res-loglikelihood-regression
Recent techniques in self-supervised monocular depth estimation are approaching the performance of supervised methods, but operate in low resolution only. We show that high resolution is key towards high-fidelity self-supervised monocular depth prediction. Inspired by recent deep learning methods for Single-Image Super-Resolution, we propose a sub-pixel convolutional layer extension for depth super-resolution that accurately synthesizes high-resolution disparities from their corresponding low-resolution convolutional features. In addition, we introduce a differentiable flip-augmentation layer that accurately fuses predictions from the image and its horizontally flipped version, reducing the effect of left and right shadow regions generated in the disparity map due to occlusions. Both contributions provide significant performance gains over the state-of-the-art in self-supervised depth and pose estimation on the public KITTI benchmark. A video of our approach can be found at //youtu.be/jKNgBeBMx0I.
We introduce a new neural architecture to learn the conditional probability of an output sequence with elements that are discrete tokens corresponding to positions in an input sequence. Such problems cannot be trivially addressed by existent approaches such as sequence-to-sequence and Neural Turing Machines, because the number of target classes in each step of the output depends on the length of the input, which is variable. Problems such as sorting variable sized sequences, and various combinatorial optimization problems belong to this class. Our model solves the problem of variable size output dictionaries using a recently proposed mechanism of neural attention. It differs from the previous attention attempts in that, instead of using attention to blend hidden units of an encoder to a context vector at each decoder step, it uses attention as a pointer to select a member of the input sequence as the output. We call this architecture a Pointer Net (Ptr-Net). We show Ptr-Nets can be used to learn approximate solutions to three challenging geometric problems -- finding planar convex hulls, computing Delaunay triangulations, and the planar Travelling Salesman Problem -- using training examples alone. Ptr-Nets not only improve over sequence-to-sequence with input attention, but also allow us to generalize to variable size output dictionaries. We show that the learnt models generalize beyond the maximum lengths they were trained on. We hope our results on these tasks will encourage a broader exploration of neural learning for discrete problems.
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