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Ensemble Kalman inversion (EKI) is a technique for the numerical solution of inverse problems. A great advantage of the EKI's ensemble approach is that derivatives are not required in its implementation. But theoretically speaking, EKI's ensemble size needs to surpass the dimension of the problem. This is because of EKI's "subspace property", i.e., that the EKI solution is a linear combination of the initial ensemble it starts off with. We show that the ensemble can break out of this initial subspace when "localization" is applied. In essence, localization enforces an assumed correlation structure onto the problem, and is heavily used in ensemble Kalman filtering and data assimilation. We describe and analyze how to apply localization to the EKI, and how localization helps the EKI ensemble break out of the initial subspace. Specifically, we show that the localized EKI (LEKI) ensemble will collapse to a single point (as intended) and that the LEKI ensemble mean will converge to the global optimum at a sublinear rate. Under strict assumptions on the localization procedure and observation process, we further show that the data misfit decays uniformly. We illustrate our ideas and theoretical developments with numerical examples with simplified toy problems, a Lorenz model, and an inversion of electromagnetic data, where some of our mathematical assumptions may only be approximately valid.

We propose a dimension reduction technique for Bayesian inverse problems with nonlinear forward operators, non-Gaussian priors, and non-Gaussian observation noise. The likelihood function is approximated by a ridge function, i.e., a map which depends non-trivially only on a few linear combinations of the parameters. We build this ridge approximation by minimizing an upper bound on the Kullback--Leibler divergence between the posterior distribution and its approximation. This bound, obtained via logarithmic Sobolev inequalities, allows one to certify the error of the posterior approximation. Computing the bound requires computing the second moment matrix of the gradient of the log-likelihood function. In practice, a sample-based approximation of the upper bound is then required. We provide an analysis that enables control of the posterior approximation error due to this sampling. Numerical and theoretical comparisons with existing methods illustrate the benefits of the proposed methodology.

Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) provide a powerful framework to model causal relationships among variables in multivariate settings; in addition, through the do-calculus theory, they allow for the identification and estimation of causal effects between variables also from pure observational data. In this setting, the process of inferring the DAG structure from the data is referred to as causal structure learning or causal discovery. We introduce BCDAG, an R package for Bayesian causal discovery and causal effect estimation from Gaussian observational data, implementing the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme proposed by Castelletti & Mascaro (2021). Our implementation scales efficiently with the number of observations and, whenever the DAGs are sufficiently sparse, with the number of variables in the dataset. The package also provides functions for convergence diagnostics and for visualizing and summarizing posterior inference. In this paper, we present the key features of the underlying methodology along with its implementation in BCDAG. We then illustrate the main functions and algorithms on both real and simulated datasets.

We revisit widely used preferential Gaussian processes by Chu et al.(2005) and challenge their modelling assumption that imposes rankability of data items via latent utility function values. We propose a generalisation of pgp which can capture more expressive latent preferential structures in the data and thus be used to model inconsistent preferences, i.e. where transitivity is violated, or to discover clusters of comparable items via spectral decomposition of the learned preference functions. We also consider the properties of associated covariance kernel functions and its reproducing kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS), giving a simple construction that satisfies universality in the space of preference functions. Finally, we provide an extensive set of numerical experiments on simulated and real-world datasets showcasing the competitiveness of our proposed method with state-of-the-art. Our experimental findings support the conjecture that violations of rankability are ubiquitous in real-world preferential data.

We consider a network of agents. Associated with each agent are her covariate and outcome. Agents influence each other's outcomes according to a certain connection/influence structure. A subset of the agents participate on a platform, and hence, are observable to it. The rest are not observable to the platform and are called the latent agents. The platform does not know the influence structure of the observable or the latent parts of the network. It only observes the data on past covariates and decisions of the observable agents. Observable agents influence each other both directly and indirectly through the influence they exert on the latent agents. We investigate how the platform can estimate the dependence of the observable agents' outcomes on their covariates, taking the latent agents into account. First, we show that this relationship can be succinctly captured by a matrix and provide an algorithm for estimating it under a suitable approximate sparsity condition using historical data of covariates and outcomes for the observable agents. We also obtain convergence rates for the proposed estimator despite the high dimensionality that allows more agents than observations. Second, we show that the approximate sparsity condition holds under the standard conditions used in the literature. Hence, our results apply to a large class of networks. Finally, we apply our results to two practical settings: targeted advertising and promotional pricing. We show that by using the available historical data with our estimator, it is possible to obtain asymptotically optimal advertising/pricing decisions, despite the presence of latent agents.

Recent machine learning advances have proposed black-box estimation of unknown continuous-time system dynamics directly from data. However, earlier works are based on approximative ODE solutions or point estimates. We propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric model that uses Gaussian processes to infer posteriors of unknown ODE systems directly from data. We derive sparse variational inference with decoupled functional sampling to represent vector field posteriors. We also introduce a probabilistic shooting augmentation to enable efficient inference from arbitrarily long trajectories. The method demonstrates the benefit of computing vector field posteriors, with predictive uncertainty scores outperforming alternative methods on multiple ODE learning tasks.

Motivated by applications in reinforcement learning (RL), we study a nonlinear stochastic approximation (SA) algorithm under Markovian noise, and establish its finite-sample convergence bounds under various stepsizes. Specifically, we show that when using constant stepsize (i.e., $\alpha_k\equiv \alpha$), the algorithm achieves exponential fast convergence to a neighborhood (with radius $O(\alpha\log(1/\alpha))$) around the desired limit point. When using diminishing stepsizes with appropriate decay rate, the algorithm converges with rate $O(\log(k)/k)$. Our proof is based on Lyapunov drift arguments, and to handle the Markovian noise, we exploit the fast mixing of the underlying Markov chain. To demonstrate the generality of our theoretical results on Markovian SA, we use it to derive the finite-sample bounds of the popular $Q$-learning with linear function approximation algorithm, under a condition on the behavior policy. Importantly, we do not need to make the assumption that the samples are i.i.d., and do not require an artificial projection step in the algorithm to maintain the boundedness of the iterates. Numerical simulations corroborate our theoretical results.

Partial label learning (PLL) is a typical weakly supervised learning problem, where each training example is associated with a set of candidate labels among which only one is true. Most existing PLL approaches assume that the incorrect labels in each training example are randomly picked as the candidate labels. However, this assumption is not realistic since the candidate labels are always instance-dependent. In this paper, we consider instance-dependent PLL and assume that each example is associated with a latent label distribution constituted by the real number of each label, representing the degree to each label describing the feature. The incorrect label with a high degree is more likely to be annotated as the candidate label. Therefore, the latent label distribution is the essential labeling information in partially labeled examples and worth being leveraged for predictive model training. Motivated by this consideration, we propose a novel PLL method that recovers the label distribution as a label enhancement (LE) process and trains the predictive model iteratively in every epoch. Specifically, we assume the true posterior density of the latent label distribution takes on the variational approximate Dirichlet density parameterized by an inference model. Then the evidence lower bound is deduced for optimizing the inference model and the label distributions generated from the variational posterior are utilized for training the predictive model. Experiments on benchmark and real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Source code is available at //github.com/palm-ml/valen.

Learning a graph topology to reveal the underlying relationship between data entities plays an important role in various machine learning and data analysis tasks. Under the assumption that structured data vary smoothly over a graph, the problem can be formulated as a regularised convex optimisation over a positive semidefinite cone and solved by iterative algorithms. Classic methods require an explicit convex function to reflect generic topological priors, e.g. the $\ell_1$ penalty for enforcing sparsity, which limits the flexibility and expressiveness in learning rich topological structures. We propose to learn a mapping from node data to the graph structure based on the idea of learning to optimise (L2O). Specifically, our model first unrolls an iterative primal-dual splitting algorithm into a neural network. The key structural proximal projection is replaced with a variational autoencoder that refines the estimated graph with enhanced topological properties. The model is trained in an end-to-end fashion with pairs of node data and graph samples. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that our model is more efficient than classic iterative algorithms in learning a graph with specific topological properties.

We propose a new approach to inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) based on the deep Gaussian process (deep GP) model, which is capable of learning complicated reward structures with few demonstrations. Our model stacks multiple latent GP layers to learn abstract representations of the state feature space, which is linked to the demonstrations through the Maximum Entropy learning framework. Incorporating the IRL engine into the nonlinear latent structure renders existing deep GP inference approaches intractable. To tackle this, we develop a non-standard variational approximation framework which extends previous inference schemes. This allows for approximate Bayesian treatment of the feature space and guards against overfitting. Carrying out representation and inverse reinforcement learning simultaneously within our model outperforms state-of-the-art approaches, as we demonstrate with experiments on standard benchmarks ("object world","highway driving") and a new benchmark ("binary world").