The theta series of a lattice has been extensively studied in the literature and is closely related to a critical quantity widely used in the fields of physical layer security and cryptography, known as the flatness factor, or equivalently, the smoothing parameter of a lattice. Both fields raise the fundamental question of determining the (globally) maximum theta series over a particular set of volume-one lattices, namely, the stable lattices. In this work, we present a property of unimodular lattices, a subfamily of stable lattices, to verify that the integer lattice $\mathbb{Z}^{n}$ achieves the largest possible value of theta series over the set of unimodular lattices. Such a result moves towards proving the conjecture recently stated by Regev and Stephens-Davidowitz: any unimodular lattice, except for those lattices isomorphic to $\mathbb{Z}^{n}$, has a strictly smaller theta series than that of $\mathbb{Z}^{n}$. Our techniques are mainly based on studying the ratio of the theta series of a unimodular lattice to the theta series of $\mathbb{Z}^n$, called the secrecy ratio. We relate the Regev and Stephens-Davidowitz conjecture with another conjecture for unimodular lattices, known in the literature as the Belfiore-Sol{\'e} conjecture. The latter assumes that the secrecy ratio of any unimodular lattice has a symmetry point, which is exactly where the global minimum of the secrecy ratio is achieved.
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Instrumental variables (IVs) are a popular and powerful tool for estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, classical approaches rely on strong assumptions such as the $\textit{exclusion criterion}$, which states that instrumental effects must be entirely mediated by treatments. This assumption often fails in practice. When IV methods are improperly applied to data that do not meet the exclusion criterion, estimated causal effects may be badly biased. In this work, we propose a novel solution that provides $\textit{partial}$ identification in linear systems given a set of $\textit{leaky instruments}$, which are allowed to violate the exclusion criterion to some limited degree. We derive a convex optimization objective that provides provably sharp bounds on the average treatment effect under some common forms of information leakage, and implement inference procedures to quantify the uncertainty of resulting estimates. We demonstrate our method in a set of experiments with simulated data, where it performs favorably against the state of the art. An accompanying $\texttt{R}$ package, $\texttt{leakyIV}$, is available from $\texttt{CRAN}$.
As network complexity escalates, there is an increasing need for more sophisticated methods to manage and operate these networks, focusing on enhancing efficiency, reliability, and security. A wide range of Artificial Intelligence (AI)/Machine Learning (ML) models are being developed in response. These models are pivotal in automating decision-making, conducting predictive analyses, managing networks proactively, enhancing security, and optimizing network performance. They are foundational in shaping the future of networks, collectively forming what is known as Network Intelligence (NI). Prominent Standard-Defining Organizations (SDOs) are integrating NI into future network architectures, particularly emphasizing the closed-loop approach. However, existing methods for seamlessly integrating NI into network architectures are not yet fully effective. This paper introduces an in-depth architectural design for a Network Intelligence Stratum (NI Stratum). This stratum is supported by a novel end-to-end NI orchestrator that supports closed-loop NI operations across various network domains. The primary goal of this design is to streamline the deployment and coordination of NI throughout the entire network infrastructure, tackling issues related to scalability, conflict resolution, and effective data management. We detail exhaustive workflows for managing the NI lifecycle and demonstrate a reference implementation of the NI Stratum, focusing on its compatibility and integration with current network systems and open-source platforms such as Kubernetes and Kubeflow, as well as on its validation on real-world environments. The paper also outlines major challenges and open issues in deploying and managing NI.
League of Legends (LoL) has been a dominant esport for a decade, yet the inherent complexity of the game has stymied the creation of analytical measures of player skill and performance. Current industry standards are limited to easy-to-procure individual player statistics that are incomplete and lacking context as they do not take into account teamplay or game state. We present a unified performance model for League of Legends which blends together measures of a player's contribution within the context of their team, insights from traditional sports metrics such as the Plus-Minus model, and the intricacies of LoL as a complex team invasion sport. Using hierarchical Bayesian models, we outline the use of gold and damage dealt as a measure of skill, detailing players' impact on their own-, their allies'- and their enemies' statistics throughout the course of the game. Our results showcase the model's increased efficacy in separating professional players when compared to a Plus-Minus model and to current esports industry standards, while metric quality is rigorously assessed for discrimination, independence, and stability. Readers might also find additional qualitative analytics which explore champion proficiency and the impact of collaborative team-play. Future work is proposed to refine and expand the SIDO performance model, offering a comprehensive framework for esports analytics in team performance management, scouting and research realms.
Age is one of the major known risk factors for Alzheimer's Disease (AD). Detecting AD early is crucial for effective treatment and preventing irreversible brain damage. Brain age, a measure derived from brain imaging reflecting structural changes due to aging, may have the potential to identify AD onset, assess disease risk, and plan targeted interventions. Deep learning-based regression techniques to predict brain age from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans have shown great accuracy recently. However, these methods are subject to an inherent regression to the mean effect, which causes a systematic bias resulting in an overestimation of brain age in young subjects and underestimation in old subjects. This weakens the reliability of predicted brain age as a valid biomarker for downstream clinical applications. Here, we reformulate the brain age prediction task from regression to classification to address the issue of systematic bias. Recognizing the importance of preserving ordinal information from ages to understand aging trajectory and monitor aging longitudinally, we propose a novel ORdinal Distance Encoded Regularization (ORDER) loss that incorporates the order of age labels, enhancing the model's ability to capture age-related patterns. Extensive experiments and ablation studies demonstrate that this framework reduces systematic bias, outperforms state-of-art methods by statistically significant margins, and can better capture subtle differences between clinical groups in an independent AD dataset. Our implementation is publicly available at //github.com/jaygshah/Robust-Brain-Age-Prediction.
We develop a new, spectral approach for identifying and estimating average counterfactual outcomes under a low-rank factor model with short panel data and general outcome missingness patterns. Applications include event studies and studies of outcomes of "matches" between agents of two types, e.g. workers and firms, typically conducted under less-flexible Two-Way-Fixed-Effects (TWFE) models of outcomes. Given an infinite population of units and a finite number of outcomes, we show our approach identifies all counterfactual outcome means, including those not estimable by existing methods, if a particular graph constructed based on overlaps in observed outcomes between subpopulations is connected. Our analogous, computationally efficient estimation procedure yields consistent, asymptotically normal estimates of counterfactual outcome means under fixed-$T$ (number of outcomes), large-$N$ (sample size) asymptotics. In a semi-synthetic simulation study based on matched employer-employee data, our estimator has lower bias and only slightly higher variance than a TWFE-model-based estimator when estimating average log-wages.
Discovering the underlying relationships among variables from temporal observations has been a longstanding challenge in numerous scientific disciplines, including biology, finance, and climate science. The dynamics of such systems are often best described using continuous-time stochastic processes. Unfortunately, most existing structure learning approaches assume that the underlying process evolves in discrete-time and/or observations occur at regular time intervals. These mismatched assumptions can often lead to incorrect learned structures and models. In this work, we introduce a novel structure learning method, SCOTCH, which combines neural stochastic differential equations (SDE) with variational inference to infer a posterior distribution over possible structures. This continuous-time approach can naturally handle both learning from and predicting observations at arbitrary time points. Theoretically, we establish sufficient conditions for an SDE and SCOTCH to be structurally identifiable, and prove its consistency under infinite data limits. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach leads to improved structure learning performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets compared to relevant baselines under regular and irregular sampling intervals.
We investigate the problem of common randomness (CR) generation in the basic two-party communication setting in which a sender and a receiver aim to agree on a common random variable with high probability. The terminals observe independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples of sources with an arbitrary distribution defined on a Polish alphabet and are allowed to communicate as little as possible over a noisy, memoryless channel. We establish single-letter upper and lower bounds on the CR capacity for the specified model. The derived bounds hold with equality except for at most countably many points where discontinuity issues might arise.
Reasoning, a crucial ability for complex problem-solving, plays a pivotal role in various real-world settings such as negotiation, medical diagnosis, and criminal investigation. It serves as a fundamental methodology in the field of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). With the ongoing development of foundation models, e.g., Large Language Models (LLMs), there is a growing interest in exploring their abilities in reasoning tasks. In this paper, we introduce seminal foundation models proposed or adaptable for reasoning, highlighting the latest advancements in various reasoning tasks, methods, and benchmarks. We then delve into the potential future directions behind the emergence of reasoning abilities within foundation models. We also discuss the relevance of multimodal learning, autonomous agents, and super alignment in the context of reasoning. By discussing these future research directions, we hope to inspire researchers in their exploration of this field, stimulate further advancements in reasoning with foundation models, and contribute to the development of AGI.
As soon as abstract mathematical computations were adapted to computation on digital computers, the problem of efficient representation, manipulation, and communication of the numerical values in those computations arose. Strongly related to the problem of numerical representation is the problem of quantization: in what manner should a set of continuous real-valued numbers be distributed over a fixed discrete set of numbers to minimize the number of bits required and also to maximize the accuracy of the attendant computations? This perennial problem of quantization is particularly relevant whenever memory and/or computational resources are severely restricted, and it has come to the forefront in recent years due to the remarkable performance of Neural Network models in computer vision, natural language processing, and related areas. Moving from floating-point representations to low-precision fixed integer values represented in four bits or less holds the potential to reduce the memory footprint and latency by a factor of 16x; and, in fact, reductions of 4x to 8x are often realized in practice in these applications. Thus, it is not surprising that quantization has emerged recently as an important and very active sub-area of research in the efficient implementation of computations associated with Neural Networks. In this article, we survey approaches to the problem of quantizing the numerical values in deep Neural Network computations, covering the advantages/disadvantages of current methods. With this survey and its organization, we hope to have presented a useful snapshot of the current research in quantization for Neural Networks and to have given an intelligent organization to ease the evaluation of future research in this area.
A community reveals the features and connections of its members that are different from those in other communities in a network. Detecting communities is of great significance in network analysis. Despite the classical spectral clustering and statistical inference methods, we notice a significant development of deep learning techniques for community detection in recent years with their advantages in handling high dimensional network data. Hence, a comprehensive overview of community detection's latest progress through deep learning is timely to both academics and practitioners. This survey devises and proposes a new taxonomy covering different categories of the state-of-the-art methods, including deep learning-based models upon deep neural networks, deep nonnegative matrix factorization and deep sparse filtering. The main category, i.e., deep neural networks, is further divided into convolutional networks, graph attention networks, generative adversarial networks and autoencoders. The survey also summarizes the popular benchmark data sets, model evaluation metrics, and open-source implementations to address experimentation settings. We then discuss the practical applications of community detection in various domains and point to implementation scenarios. Finally, we outline future directions by suggesting challenging topics in this fast-growing deep learning field.
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