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This paper explores the implications of using machine learning models in the pricing of catastrophe (CAT) bonds. By integrating advanced machine learning techniques, our approach uncovers nonlinear relationships and complex interactions between key risk factors and CAT bond spreads -- dynamics that are often overlooked by traditional linear regression models. Using primary market CAT bond transaction records between January 1999 and March 2021, our findings demonstrate that machine learning models not only enhance the accuracy of CAT bond pricing but also provide a deeper understanding of how various risk factors interact and influence bond prices in a nonlinear way. These findings suggest that investors and issuers can benefit from incorporating machine learning to better capture the intricate interplay between risk factors when pricing CAT bonds. The results also highlight the potential for machine learning models to refine our understanding of asset pricing in markets characterized by complex risk structures.

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機(ji)器(qi)學(xue)習(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(Machine Learning)是(shi)一個研究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)計算學(xue)習(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)方法(fa)(fa)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國際論(lun)(lun)壇。該雜(za)志發表文(wen)章,報(bao)告廣泛的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)學(xue)習(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)方法(fa)(fa)應(ying)(ying)用(yong)(yong)于各種(zhong)學(xue)習(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)問(wen)(wen)題的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)實(shi)(shi)質(zhi)性結果。該雜(za)志的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)特色論(lun)(lun)文(wen)描述(shu)研究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)問(wen)(wen)題和方法(fa)(fa),應(ying)(ying)用(yong)(yong)研究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)和研究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)方法(fa)(fa)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)問(wen)(wen)題。有(you)關學(xue)習(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)問(wen)(wen)題或(huo)(huo)方法(fa)(fa)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)論(lun)(lun)文(wen)通過實(shi)(shi)證(zheng)研究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)、理論(lun)(lun)分析或(huo)(huo)與心理現象的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)比較提供(gong)了堅實(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)支持。應(ying)(ying)用(yong)(yong)論(lun)(lun)文(wen)展示了如何應(ying)(ying)用(yong)(yong)學(xue)習(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)方法(fa)(fa)來解決(jue)重要的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)應(ying)(ying)用(yong)(yong)問(wen)(wen)題。研究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)方法(fa)(fa)論(lun)(lun)文(wen)改進了機(ji)器(qi)學(xue)習(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)研究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)方法(fa)(fa)。所有(you)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)論(lun)(lun)文(wen)都以其他研究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)人(ren)員可(ke)以驗證(zheng)或(huo)(huo)復制的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方式描述(shu)了支持證(zheng)據。論(lun)(lun)文(wen)還詳細說明(ming)了學(xue)習(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)組成部分,并(bing)討論(lun)(lun)了關于知識(shi)表示和性能(neng)任務的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)假設(she)。 官網地址:

To help adversarial examples generalize from surrogate machine-learning (ML) models to targets, certain transferability-based black-box evasion attacks incorporate data augmentations (e.g., random resizing). Yet, prior work has explored limited augmentations and their composition. To fill the gap, we systematically studied how data augmentation affects transferability. Specifically, we explored 46 augmentation techniques originally proposed to help ML models generalize to unseen benign samples, and assessed how they impact transferability, when applied individually or composed. Performing exhaustive search on a small subset of augmentation techniques and genetic search on all techniques, we identified augmentation combinations that help promote transferability. Extensive experiments with the ImageNet and CIFAR-10 datasets and 18 models showed that simple color-space augmentations (e.g., color to greyscale) attain high transferability when combined with standard augmentations. Furthermore, we discovered that composing augmentations impacts transferability mostly monotonically (i.e., more augmentations $\rightarrow$ $\ge$transferability). We also found that the best composition significantly outperformed the state of the art (e.g., 91.8% vs. $\le$82.5% average transferability to adversarially trained targets on ImageNet). Lastly, our theoretical analysis, backed by empirical evidence, intuitively explains why certain augmentations promote transferability.

Machine learning models have achieved high overall accuracy in medical image analysis. However, performance disparities on specific patient groups pose challenges to their clinical utility, safety, and fairness. This can affect known patient groups - such as those based on sex, age, or disease subtype - as well as previously unknown and unlabeled groups. Furthermore, the root cause of such observed performance disparities is often challenging to uncover, hindering mitigation efforts. In this paper, to address these issues, we leverage Slice Discovery Methods (SDMs) to identify interpretable underperforming subsets of data and formulate hypotheses regarding the cause of observed performance disparities. We introduce a novel SDM and apply it in a case study on the classification of pneumothorax and atelectasis from chest x-rays. Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of SDMs in hypothesis formulation and yields an explanation of previously observed but unexplained performance disparities between male and female patients in widely used chest X-ray datasets and models. Our findings indicate shortcut learning in both classification tasks, through the presence of chest drains and ECG wires, respectively. Sex-based differences in the prevalence of these shortcut features appear to cause the observed classification performance gap, representing a previously underappreciated interaction between shortcut learning and model fairness analyses.

Large language models (LLMs) typically improve performance by either retrieving semantically similar information, or enhancing reasoning abilities through structured prompts like chain-of-thought. While both strategies are considered crucial, it remains unclear which has a greater impact on model performance or whether a combination of both is necessary. This paper answers this question by proposing a knowledge graph (KG)-based random-walk reasoning approach that leverages causal relationships. We conduct experiments on the commonsense question answering task that is based on a KG. The KG inherently provides both relevant information, such as related entity keywords, and a reasoning structure through the connections between nodes. Experimental results show that the proposed KG-based random-walk reasoning method improves the reasoning ability and performance of LLMs. Interestingly, incorporating three seemingly irrelevant sentences into the query using KG-based random-walk reasoning enhances LLM performance, contrary to conventional wisdom. These findings suggest that integrating causal structures into prompts can significantly improve reasoning capabilities, providing new insights into the role of causality in optimizing LLM performance.

Graph autoencoders (GAEs) are self-supervised learning models that can learn meaningful representations of graph-structured data by reconstructing the input graph from a low-dimensional latent space. Over the past few years, GAEs have gained significant attention in academia and industry. In particular, the recent advent of GAEs with masked autoencoding schemes marks a significant advancement in graph self-supervised learning research. While numerous GAEs have been proposed, the underlying mechanisms of GAEs are not well understood, and a comprehensive benchmark for GAEs is still lacking. In this work, we bridge the gap between GAEs and contrastive learning by establishing conceptual and methodological connections. We revisit the GAEs studied in previous works and demonstrate how contrastive learning principles can be applied to GAEs. Motivated by these insights, we introduce lrGAE (left-right GAE), a general and powerful GAE framework that leverages contrastive learning principles to learn meaningful representations. Our proposed lrGAE not only facilitates a deeper understanding of GAEs but also sets a new benchmark for GAEs across diverse graph-based learning tasks. The source code for lrGAE, including the baselines and all the code for reproducing the results, is publicly available at //github.com/EdisonLeeeee/lrGAE.

As an effective strategy, data augmentation (DA) alleviates data scarcity scenarios where deep learning techniques may fail. It is widely applied in computer vision then introduced to natural language processing and achieves improvements in many tasks. One of the main focuses of the DA methods is to improve the diversity of training data, thereby helping the model to better generalize to unseen testing data. In this survey, we frame DA methods into three categories based on the diversity of augmented data, including paraphrasing, noising, and sampling. Our paper sets out to analyze DA methods in detail according to the above categories. Further, we also introduce their applications in NLP tasks as well as the challenges.

Deep learning has become the dominant approach in coping with various tasks in Natural LanguageProcessing (NLP). Although text inputs are typically represented as a sequence of tokens, there isa rich variety of NLP problems that can be best expressed with a graph structure. As a result, thereis a surge of interests in developing new deep learning techniques on graphs for a large numberof NLP tasks. In this survey, we present a comprehensive overview onGraph Neural Networks(GNNs) for Natural Language Processing. We propose a new taxonomy of GNNs for NLP, whichsystematically organizes existing research of GNNs for NLP along three axes: graph construction,graph representation learning, and graph based encoder-decoder models. We further introducea large number of NLP applications that are exploiting the power of GNNs and summarize thecorresponding benchmark datasets, evaluation metrics, and open-source codes. Finally, we discussvarious outstanding challenges for making the full use of GNNs for NLP as well as future researchdirections. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first comprehensive overview of Graph NeuralNetworks for Natural Language Processing.

Traffic forecasting is an important factor for the success of intelligent transportation systems. Deep learning models including convolution neural networks and recurrent neural networks have been applied in traffic forecasting problems to model the spatial and temporal dependencies. In recent years, to model the graph structures in the transportation systems as well as the contextual information, graph neural networks (GNNs) are introduced as new tools and have achieved the state-of-the-art performance in a series of traffic forecasting problems. In this survey, we review the rapidly growing body of recent research using different GNNs, e.g., graph convolutional and graph attention networks, in various traffic forecasting problems, e.g., road traffic flow and speed forecasting, passenger flow forecasting in urban rail transit systems, demand forecasting in ride-hailing platforms, etc. We also present a collection of open data and source resources for each problem, as well as future research directions. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first comprehensive survey that explores the application of graph neural networks for traffic forecasting problems. We have also created a public Github repository to update the latest papers, open data and source resources.

Deep learning methods are achieving ever-increasing performance on many artificial intelligence tasks. A major limitation of deep models is that they are not amenable to interpretability. This limitation can be circumvented by developing post hoc techniques to explain the predictions, giving rise to the area of explainability. Recently, explainability of deep models on images and texts has achieved significant progress. In the area of graph data, graph neural networks (GNNs) and their explainability are experiencing rapid developments. However, there is neither a unified treatment of GNN explainability methods, nor a standard benchmark and testbed for evaluations. In this survey, we provide a unified and taxonomic view of current GNN explainability methods. Our unified and taxonomic treatments of this subject shed lights on the commonalities and differences of existing methods and set the stage for further methodological developments. To facilitate evaluations, we generate a set of benchmark graph datasets specifically for GNN explainability. We summarize current datasets and metrics for evaluating GNN explainability. Altogether, this work provides a unified methodological treatment of GNN explainability and a standardized testbed for evaluations.

The difficulty of deploying various deep learning (DL) models on diverse DL hardwares has boosted the research and development of DL compilers in the community. Several DL compilers have been proposed from both industry and academia such as Tensorflow XLA and TVM. Similarly, the DL compilers take the DL models described in different DL frameworks as input, and then generate optimized codes for diverse DL hardwares as output. However, none of the existing survey has analyzed the unique design of the DL compilers comprehensively. In this paper, we perform a comprehensive survey of existing DL compilers by dissecting the commonly adopted design in details, with emphasis on the DL oriented multi-level IRs, and frontend/backend optimizations. Specifically, we provide a comprehensive comparison among existing DL compilers from various aspects. In addition, we present detailed analysis of the multi-level IR design and compiler optimization techniques. Finally, several insights are highlighted as the potential research directions of DL compiler. This is the first survey paper focusing on the unique design of DL compiler, which we hope can pave the road for future research towards the DL compiler.

This paper surveys the machine learning literature and presents machine learning as optimization models. Such models can benefit from the advancement of numerical optimization techniques which have already played a distinctive role in several machine learning settings. Particularly, mathematical optimization models are presented for commonly used machine learning approaches for regression, classification, clustering, and deep neural networks as well new emerging applications in machine teaching and empirical model learning. The strengths and the shortcomings of these models are discussed and potential research directions are highlighted.

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