We illustrate use of nonparametric statistical methods to compare alternative treatments for a particular disease or condition on both their relative effectiveness and their relative cost. These Incremental Cost Effectiveness (ICE) methods are based upon Bootstrapping, i.e. Resampling with Replacement from observational or clinical-trial data on individual patients. We first show how a reasonable numerical value for the "Shadow Price of Health" can be chosen using functions within the ICEinfer R-package when effectiveness is not measured in "QALY"s. We also argue that simple histograms are ideal for communicating key findings to regulators, while our more detailed graphics may well be more informative and compelling for other health-care stakeholders.
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We consider the generalization error associated with stochastic gradient descent on a smooth convex function over a compact set. We show the first bound on the generalization error that vanishes when the number of iterations $T$ and the dataset size $n$ go to zero at arbitrary rates; our bound scales as $\tilde{O}(1/\sqrt{T} + 1/\sqrt{n})$ with step-size $\alpha_t = 1/\sqrt{t}$. In particular, strong convexity is not needed for stochastic gradient descent to generalize well.
Planning for many manipulation tasks, such as using tools or assembling parts, often requires both symbolic and geometric reasoning. Task and Motion Planning (TAMP) algorithms typically solve these problems by conducting a tree search over high-level task sequences while checking for kinematic and dynamic feasibility. This can be inefficient as the width of the tree can grow exponentially with the number of possible actions and objects. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to TAMP that relaxes discrete-and-continuous TAMP problems into inference problems on a continuous domain. Our method, Stein Task and Motion Planning (STAMP) subsequently solves this new problem using a gradient-based variational inference algorithm called Stein Variational Gradient Descent, by obtaining gradients from a parallelized differentiable physics simulator. By introducing relaxations to the discrete variables, leveraging parallelization, and approaching TAMP as an Bayesian inference problem, our method is able to efficiently find multiple diverse plans in a single optimization run. We demonstrate our method on two TAMP problems and benchmark them against existing TAMP baselines.
We introduce RJUA-QA, a novel medical dataset for question answering (QA) and reasoning with clinical evidence, contributing to bridge the gap between general large language models (LLMs) and medical-specific LLM applications. RJUA-QA is derived from realistic clinical scenarios and aims to facilitate LLMs in generating reliable diagnostic and advice. The dataset contains 2,132 curated Question-Context-Answer pairs, corresponding about 25,000 diagnostic records and clinical cases. The dataset covers 67 common urological disease categories, where the disease coverage exceeds 97.6\% of the population seeking medical services in urology. Each data instance in RJUA-QA comprises: (1) a question mirroring real patient to inquiry about clinical symptoms and medical conditions, (2) a context including comprehensive expert knowledge, serving as a reference for medical examination and diagnosis, (3) a doctor response offering the diagnostic conclusion and suggested examination guidance, (4) a diagnosed clinical disease as the recommended diagnostic outcome, and (5) clinical advice providing recommendations for medical examination. RJUA-QA is the first medical QA dataset for clinical reasoning over the patient inquiries, where expert-level knowledge and experience are required for yielding diagnostic conclusions and medical examination advice. A comprehensive evaluation is conducted to evaluate the performance of both medical-specific and general LLMs on the RJUA-QA dataset. Our data is are publicly available at \url{//github.com/alipay/RJU_Ant_QA}.
Many adversarial attacks target natural language processing systems, most of which succeed through modifying the individual tokens of a document. Despite the apparent uniqueness of each of these attacks, fundamentally they are simply a distinct configuration of four components: a goal function, allowable transformations, a search method, and constraints. In this survey, we systematically present the different components used throughout the literature, using an attack-independent framework which allows for easy comparison and categorisation of components. Our work aims to serve as a comprehensive guide for newcomers to the field and to spark targeted research into refining the individual attack components.
We introduce Dagma-DCE, an interpretable and model-agnostic scheme for differentiable causal discovery. Current non- or over-parametric methods in differentiable causal discovery use opaque proxies of ``independence'' to justify the inclusion or exclusion of a causal relationship. We show theoretically and empirically that these proxies may be arbitrarily different than the actual causal strength. Juxtaposed to existing differentiable causal discovery algorithms, \textsc{Dagma-DCE} uses an interpretable measure of causal strength to define weighted adjacency matrices. In a number of simulated datasets, we show our method achieves state-of-the-art level performance. We additionally show that \textsc{Dagma-DCE} allows for principled thresholding and sparsity penalties by domain-experts. The code for our method is available open-source at //github.com/DanWaxman/DAGMA-DCE, and can easily be adapted to arbitrary differentiable models.
In order to further advance the accuracy and robustness of the incremental parameter estimation-based rotation averaging methods, in this paper, a new member of the Incremental Rotation Averaging (IRA) family is introduced, which is termed as IRAv4. As the most significant feature of the IRAv4, a task-specific connected dominating set is extracted to serve as a more reliable and accurate reference for rotation global alignment. In addition, to further address the limitations of the existing rotation averaging benchmark of relying on the slightly outdated Bundler camera calibration results as ground truths and focusing solely on rotation estimation accuracy, this paper presents a new COLMAP-based rotation averaging benchmark that incorporates a cross check between COLMAP and Bundler, and employ the accuracy of both rotation and downstream location estimation as evaluation metrics, which is desired to provide a more reliable and comprehensive evaluation tool for the rotation averaging research. Comprehensive comparisons between the proposed IRAv4 and other mainstream rotation averaging methods on this new benchmark demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach.
Within recent times, cybercriminals have curated a variety of organised and resolute cyber attacks within a range of cyber systems, leading to consequential ramifications to private and governmental institutions. Current security-based automation and orchestrations focus on automating fixed purpose and hard-coded solutions, which are easily surpassed by modern-day cyber attacks. Research within Automated Cyber Defence will allow the development and enabling intelligence response by autonomously defending networked systems through sequential decision-making agents. This article comprehensively elaborates the developments within Automated Cyber Defence through a requirement analysis divided into two sub-areas, namely, automated defence and attack agents and Autonomous Cyber Operation (ACO) Gyms. The requirement analysis allows the comparison of automated agents and highlights the importance of ACO Gyms for their continual development. The requirement analysis is also used to critique ACO Gyms with an overall aim to develop them for deploying automated agents within real-world networked systems. Relevant future challenges were addressed from the overall analysis to accelerate development within the area of Automated Cyber Defence.
Learning disentanglement aims at finding a low dimensional representation which consists of multiple explanatory and generative factors of the observational data. The framework of variational autoencoder (VAE) is commonly used to disentangle independent factors from observations. However, in real scenarios, factors with semantics are not necessarily independent. Instead, there might be an underlying causal structure which renders these factors dependent. We thus propose a new VAE based framework named CausalVAE, which includes a Causal Layer to transform independent exogenous factors into causal endogenous ones that correspond to causally related concepts in data. We further analyze the model identifiabitily, showing that the proposed model learned from observations recovers the true one up to a certain degree. Experiments are conducted on various datasets, including synthetic and real word benchmark CelebA. Results show that the causal representations learned by CausalVAE are semantically interpretable, and their causal relationship as a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) is identified with good accuracy. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the proposed CausalVAE model is able to generate counterfactual data through "do-operation" to the causal factors.
Generative commonsense reasoning which aims to empower machines to generate sentences with the capacity of reasoning over a set of concepts is a critical bottleneck for text generation. Even the state-of-the-art pre-trained language generation models struggle at this task and often produce implausible and anomalous sentences. One reason is that they rarely consider incorporating the knowledge graph which can provide rich relational information among the commonsense concepts. To promote the ability of commonsense reasoning for text generation, we propose a novel knowledge graph augmented pre-trained language generation model KG-BART, which encompasses the complex relations of concepts through the knowledge graph and produces more logical and natural sentences as output. Moreover, KG-BART can leverage the graph attention to aggregate the rich concept semantics that enhances the model generalization on unseen concept sets. Experiments on benchmark CommonGen dataset verify the effectiveness of our proposed approach by comparing with several strong pre-trained language generation models, particularly KG-BART outperforms BART by 5.80, 4.60, in terms of BLEU-3, 4. Moreover, we also show that the generated context by our model can work as background scenarios to benefit downstream commonsense QA tasks.
Human doctors with well-structured medical knowledge can diagnose a disease merely via a few conversations with patients about symptoms. In contrast, existing knowledge-grounded dialogue systems often require a large number of dialogue instances to learn as they fail to capture the correlations between different diseases and neglect the diagnostic experience shared among them. To address this issue, we propose a more natural and practical paradigm, i.e., low-resource medical dialogue generation, which can transfer the diagnostic experience from source diseases to target ones with a handful of data for adaptation. It is capitalized on a commonsense knowledge graph to characterize the prior disease-symptom relations. Besides, we develop a Graph-Evolving Meta-Learning (GEML) framework that learns to evolve the commonsense graph for reasoning disease-symptom correlations in a new disease, which effectively alleviates the needs of a large number of dialogues. More importantly, by dynamically evolving disease-symptom graphs, GEML also well addresses the real-world challenges that the disease-symptom correlations of each disease may vary or evolve along with more diagnostic cases. Extensive experiment results on the CMDD dataset and our newly-collected Chunyu dataset testify the superiority of our approach over state-of-the-art approaches. Besides, our GEML can generate an enriched dialogue-sensitive knowledge graph in an online manner, which could benefit other tasks grounded on knowledge graph.
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