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In black-box function optimization, we need to consider not only controllable design variables but also uncontrollable stochastic environment variables. In such cases, it is necessary to solve the optimization problem by taking into account the uncertainty of the environmental variables. Chance-constrained (CC) problem, the problem of maximizing the expected value under a certain level of constraint satisfaction probability, is one of the practically important problems in the presence of environmental variables. In this study, we consider distributionally robust CC (DRCC) problem and propose a novel DRCC Bayesian optimization method for the case where the distribution of the environmental variables cannot be precisely specified. We show that the proposed method can find an arbitrary accurate solution with high probability in a finite number of trials, and confirm the usefulness of the proposed method through numerical experiments.

Comparing probability distributions is an indispensable and ubiquitous task in machine learning and statistics. The most common way to compare a pair of Borel probability measures is to compute a metric between them, and by far the most widely used notions of metric are the Wasserstein metric and the total variation metric. The next most common way is to compute a divergence between them, and in this case almost every known divergences such as those of Kullback--Leibler, Jensen--Shannon, R\'enyi, and many more, are special cases of the $f$-divergence. Nevertheless these metrics and divergences may only be computed, in fact, are only defined, when the pair of probability measures are on spaces of the same dimension. How would one quantify, say, a KL-divergence between the uniform distribution on the interval $[-1,1]$ and a Gaussian distribution on $\mathbb{R}^3$? We show that these common notions of metrics and divergences give rise to natural distances between Borel probability measures defined on spaces of different dimensions, e.g., one on $\mathbb{R}^m$ and another on $\mathbb{R}^n$ where $m, n$ are distinct, so as to give a meaningful answer to the previous question.

Bayesian nonlinear mixed effects models for data in the form of continuous, repeated measurements from a population, also known as Bayesian hierarchical nonlinear models, are a popular platform for analysis when interest focuses on individual specific characteristics and relevant uncertainty quantification. Due to the limitation of computational power, this framework was relatively dormant until the late 1980s, but in recent years, the statistical research community saw vigorous development of new methodological and computational techniques for these models, the emergence of software, and wide application of the models in numerous industrial and academic fields. This article presents an overview of the formulation, interpretation, and implementation of Bayesian nonlinear mixed effects models and surveys recent advances and applications.

This paper considers the problem of measure estimation under the barycentric coding model (BCM), in which an unknown measure is assumed to belong to the set of Wasserstein-2 barycenters of a finite set of known measures. Estimating a measure under this model is equivalent to estimating the unknown barycenteric coordinates. We provide novel geometrical, statistical, and computational insights for measure estimation under the BCM, consisting of three main results. Our first main result leverages the Riemannian geometry of Wasserstein-2 space to provide a procedure for recovering the barycentric coordinates as the solution to a quadratic optimization problem assuming access to the true reference measures. The essential geometric insight is that the parameters of this quadratic problem are determined by inner products between the optimal displacement maps from the given measure to the reference measures defining the BCM. Our second main result then establishes an algorithm for solving for the coordinates in the BCM when all the measures are observed empirically via i.i.d. samples. We prove precise rates of convergence for this algorithm -- determined by the smoothness of the underlying measures and their dimensionality -- thereby guaranteeing its statistical consistency. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of the BCM and associated estimation procedures in three application areas: (i) covariance estimation for Gaussian measures; (ii) image processing; and (iii) natural language processing.

The representation space of neural models for textual data emerges in an unsupervised manner during training. Understanding how human-interpretable concepts, such as gender, are encoded in these representations would improve the ability of users to \emph{control} the content of these representations and analyze the working of the models that rely on them. One prominent approach to the control problem is the identification and removal of linear concept subspaces -- subspaces in the representation space that correspond to a given concept. While those are tractable and interpretable, neural network do not necessarily represent concepts in linear subspaces. We propose a kernalization of the linear concept-removal objective of [Ravfogel et al. 2022], and show that it is effective in guarding against the ability of certain nonlinear adversaries to recover the concept. Interestingly, our findings suggest that the division between linear and nonlinear models is overly simplistic: when considering the concept of binary gender and its neutralization, we do not find a single kernel space that exclusively contains all the concept-related information. It is therefore challenging to protect against \emph{all} nonlinear adversaries at once.

Safe reinforcement learning (RL) aims to learn policies that satisfy certain constraints before deploying to safety-critical applications. Primal-dual as a prevalent constrained optimization framework suffers from instability issues and lacks optimality guarantees. This paper overcomes the issues from a novel probabilistic inference perspective and proposes an Expectation-Maximization style approach to learn safe policy. We show that the safe RL problem can be decomposed to 1) a convex optimization phase with a non-parametric variational distribution and 2) a supervised learning phase. We show the unique advantages of constrained variational policy optimization by proving its optimality and policy improvement stability. A wide range of experiments on continuous robotic tasks show that the proposed method achieves significantly better performance in terms of constraint satisfaction and sample efficiency than primal-dual baselines.

Accelerating learning processes for complex tasks by leveraging previously learned tasks has been one of the most challenging problems in reinforcement learning, especially when the similarity between source and target tasks is low. This work proposes REPresentation And INstance Transfer (REPAINT) algorithm for knowledge transfer in deep reinforcement learning. REPAINT not only transfers the representation of a pre-trained teacher policy in the on-policy learning, but also uses an advantage-based experience selection approach to transfer useful samples collected following the teacher policy in the off-policy learning. Our experimental results on several benchmark tasks show that REPAINT significantly reduces the total training time in generic cases of task similarity. In particular, when the source tasks are dissimilar to, or sub-tasks of, the target tasks, REPAINT outperforms other baselines in both training-time reduction and asymptotic performance of return scores.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

Discovering causal structure among a set of variables is a fundamental problem in many empirical sciences. Traditional score-based casual discovery methods rely on various local heuristics to search for a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) according to a predefined score function. While these methods, e.g., greedy equivalence search, may have attractive results with infinite samples and certain model assumptions, they are usually less satisfactory in practice due to finite data and possible violation of assumptions. Motivated by recent advances in neural combinatorial optimization, we propose to use Reinforcement Learning (RL) to search for the DAG with the best scoring. Our encoder-decoder model takes observable data as input and generates graph adjacency matrices that are used to compute rewards. The reward incorporates both the predefined score function and two penalty terms for enforcing acyclicity. In contrast with typical RL applications where the goal is to learn a policy, we use RL as a search strategy and our final output would be the graph, among all graphs generated during training, that achieves the best reward. We conduct experiments on both synthetic and real datasets, and show that the proposed approach not only has an improved search ability but also allows a flexible score function under the acyclicity constraint.

BERT-based architectures currently give state-of-the-art performance on many NLP tasks, but little is known about the exact mechanisms that contribute to its success. In the current work, we focus on the interpretation of self-attention, which is one of the fundamental underlying components of BERT. Using a subset of GLUE tasks and a set of handcrafted features-of-interest, we propose the methodology and carry out a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the information encoded by the individual BERT's heads. Our findings suggest that there is a limited set of attention patterns that are repeated across different heads, indicating the overall model overparametrization. While different heads consistently use the same attention patterns, they have varying impact on performance across different tasks. We show that manually disabling attention in certain heads leads to a performance improvement over the regular fine-tuned BERT models.