An increasing body of research focuses on using neural networks to model time series. A common assumption in training neural networks via maximum likelihood estimation on time series is that the errors across time steps are uncorrelated. However, errors are actually autocorrelated in many cases due to the temporality of the data, which makes such maximum likelihood estimations inaccurate. In this paper, in order to adjust for autocorrelated errors, we propose to learn the autocorrelation coefficient jointly with the model parameters. In our experiments, we verify the effectiveness of our approach on time series forecasting. Results across a wide range of real-world datasets with various state-of-the-art models show that our method enhances performance in almost all cases. Based on these results, we suggest empirical critical values to determine the severity of autocorrelated errors. We also analyze several aspects of our method to demonstrate its advantages. Finally, other time series tasks are also considered to validate that our method is not restricted to only forecasting.
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Despite the considerable success of neural networks in security settings such as malware detection, such models have proved vulnerable to evasion attacks, in which attackers make slight changes to inputs (e.g., malware) to bypass detection. We propose a novel approach, \emph{Fourier stabilization}, for designing evasion-robust neural networks with binary inputs. This approach, which is complementary to other forms of defense, replaces the weights of individual neurons with robust analogs derived using Fourier analytic tools. The choice of which neurons to stabilize in a neural network is then a combinatorial optimization problem, and we propose several methods for approximately solving it. We provide a formal bound on the per-neuron drop in accuracy due to Fourier stabilization, and experimentally demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in boosting robustness of neural networks in several detection settings. Moreover, we show that our approach effectively composes with adversarial training.
In this paper we develop a novel neural network model for predicting implied volatility surface. Prior financial domain knowledge is taken into account. A new activation function that incorporates volatility smile is proposed, which is used for the hidden nodes that process the underlying asset price. In addition, financial conditions, such as the absence of arbitrage, the boundaries and the asymptotic slope, are embedded into the loss function. This is one of the very first studies which discuss a methodological framework that incorporates prior financial domain knowledge into neural network architecture design and model training. The proposed model outperforms the benchmarked models with the option data on the S&P 500 index over 20 years. More importantly, the domain knowledge is satisfied empirically, showing the model is consistent with the existing financial theories and conditions related to implied volatility surface.
We study how neural networks trained by gradient descent extrapolate, i.e., what they learn outside the support of the training distribution. Previous works report mixed empirical results when extrapolating with neural networks: while feedforward neural networks, a.k.a. multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), do not extrapolate well in certain simple tasks, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), a structured network with MLP modules, have shown some success in more complex tasks. Working towards a theoretical explanation, we identify conditions under which MLPs and GNNs extrapolate well. First, we quantify the observation that ReLU MLPs quickly converge to linear functions along any direction from the origin, which implies that ReLU MLPs do not extrapolate most nonlinear functions. But, they can provably learn a linear target function when the training distribution is sufficiently diverse. Second, in connection to analyzing the successes and limitations of GNNs, these results suggest a hypothesis for which we provide theoretical and empirical evidence: the success of GNNs in extrapolating algorithmic tasks to new data (e.g., larger graphs or edge weights) relies on encoding task-specific non-linearities in the architecture or features. Our theoretical analysis builds on a connection of over-parameterized networks to the neural tangent kernel. Empirically, our theory holds across different training settings.
Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) has been widely applied in transportation demand prediction due to its excellent ability to capture non-Euclidean spatial dependence among station-level or regional transportation demands. However, in most of the existing research, the graph convolution was implemented on a heuristically generated adjacency matrix, which could neither reflect the real spatial relationships of stations accurately, nor capture the multi-level spatial dependence of demands adaptively. To cope with the above problems, this paper provides a novel graph convolutional network for transportation demand prediction. Firstly, a novel graph convolution architecture is proposed, which has different adjacency matrices in different layers and all the adjacency matrices are self-learned during the training process. Secondly, a layer-wise coupling mechanism is provided, which associates the upper-level adjacency matrix with the lower-level one. It also reduces the scale of parameters in our model. Lastly, a unitary network is constructed to give the final prediction result by integrating the hidden spatial states with gated recurrent unit, which could capture the multi-level spatial dependence and temporal dynamics simultaneously. Experiments have been conducted on two real-world datasets, NYC Citi Bike and NYC Taxi, and the results demonstrate the superiority of our model over the state-of-the-art ones.
Data augmentation has been widely used to improve generalizability of machine learning models. However, comparatively little work studies data augmentation for graphs. This is largely due to the complex, non-Euclidean structure of graphs, which limits possible manipulation operations. Augmentation operations commonly used in vision and language have no analogs for graphs. Our work studies graph data augmentation for graph neural networks (GNNs) in the context of improving semi-supervised node-classification. We discuss practical and theoretical motivations, considerations and strategies for graph data augmentation. Our work shows that neural edge predictors can effectively encode class-homophilic structure to promote intra-class edges and demote inter-class edges in given graph structure, and our main contribution introduces the GAug graph data augmentation framework, which leverages these insights to improve performance in GNN-based node classification via edge prediction. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks show that augmentation via GAug improves performance across GNN architectures and datasets.
Knowledge graphs (KGs) are of great importance to many real world applications, but they generally suffer from incomplete information in the form of missing relations between entities. Knowledge graph completion (also known as relation prediction) is the task of inferring missing facts given existing ones. Most of the existing work is proposed by maximizing the likelihood of observed instance-level triples. Not much attention, however, is paid to the ontological information, such as type information of entities and relations. In this work, we propose a type-augmented relation prediction (TaRP) method, where we apply both the type information and instance-level information for relation prediction. In particular, type information and instance-level information are encoded as prior probabilities and likelihoods of relations respectively, and are combined by following Bayes' rule. Our proposed TaRP method achieves significantly better performance than state-of-the-art methods on three benchmark datasets: FB15K, YAGO26K-906, and DB111K-174. In addition, we show that TaRP achieves significantly improved data efficiency. More importantly, the type information extracted from a specific dataset can generalize well to other datasets through the proposed TaRP model.
Deep learning methods for graphs achieve remarkable performance on many node-level and graph-level prediction tasks. However, despite the proliferation of the methods and their success, prevailing Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) neglect subgraphs, rendering subgraph prediction tasks challenging to tackle in many impactful applications. Further, subgraph prediction tasks present several unique challenges, because subgraphs can have non-trivial internal topology, but also carry a notion of position and external connectivity information relative to the underlying graph in which they exist. Here, we introduce SUB-GNN, a subgraph neural network to learn disentangled subgraph representations. In particular, we propose a novel subgraph routing mechanism that propagates neural messages between the subgraph's components and randomly sampled anchor patches from the underlying graph, yielding highly accurate subgraph representations. SUB-GNN specifies three channels, each designed to capture a distinct aspect of subgraph structure, and we provide empirical evidence that the channels encode their intended properties. We design a series of new synthetic and real-world subgraph datasets. Empirical results for subgraph classification on eight datasets show that SUB-GNN achieves considerable performance gains, outperforming strong baseline methods, including node-level and graph-level GNNs, by 12.4% over the strongest baseline. SUB-GNN performs exceptionally well on challenging biomedical datasets when subgraphs have complex topology and even comprise multiple disconnected components.
Dependency trees convey rich structural information that is proven useful for extracting relations among entities in text. However, how to effectively make use of relevant information while ignoring irrelevant information from the dependency trees remains a challenging research question. Existing approaches employing rule based hard-pruning strategies for selecting relevant partial dependency structures may not always yield optimal results. In this work, we propose Attention Guided Graph Convolutional Networks (AGGCNs), a novel model which directly takes full dependency trees as inputs. Our model can be understood as a soft-pruning approach that automatically learns how to selectively attend to the relevant sub-structures useful for the relation extraction task. Extensive results on various tasks including cross-sentence n-ary relation extraction and large-scale sentence-level relation extraction show that our model is able to better leverage the structural information of the full dependency trees, giving significantly better results than previous approaches.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a popular class of machine learning models whose major advantage is their ability to incorporate a sparse and discrete dependency structure between data points. Unfortunately, GNNs can only be used when such a graph-structure is available. In practice, however, real-world graphs are often noisy and incomplete or might not be available at all. With this work, we propose to jointly learn the graph structure and the parameters of graph convolutional networks (GCNs) by approximately solving a bilevel program that learns a discrete probability distribution on the edges of the graph. This allows one to apply GCNs not only in scenarios where the given graph is incomplete or corrupted but also in those where a graph is not available. We conduct a series of experiments that analyze the behavior of the proposed method and demonstrate that it outperforms related methods by a significant margin.
Inferencing with network data necessitates the mapping of its nodes into a vector space, where the relationships are preserved. However, with multi-layered networks, where multiple types of relationships exist for the same set of nodes, it is crucial to exploit the information shared between layers, in addition to the distinct aspects of each layer. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that first obtains node embeddings in all layers jointly via DeepWalk on a \textit{supra} graph, which allows interactions between layers, and then fine-tunes the embeddings to encourage cohesive structure in the latent space. With empirical studies in node classification, link prediction and multi-layered community detection, we show that the proposed approach outperforms existing single- and multi-layered network embedding algorithms on several benchmarks. In addition to effectively scaling to a large number of layers (tested up to $37$), our approach consistently produces highly modular community structure, even when compared to methods that directly optimize for the modularity function.
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