The advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) have opened up many avenues for scientific research, and are adding new dimensions to the process of knowledge creation. However, even the most powerful and versatile of ML applications till date are primarily in the domain of analysis of associations and boil down to complex data fitting. Judea Pearl has pointed out that Artificial General Intelligence must involve interventions involving the acts of doing and imagining. Any machine assisted scientific discovery thus must include casual analysis and interventions. In this context, we propose a causal learning model of physical principles, which not only recognizes correlations but also brings out casual relationships. We use the principles of causal inference and interventions to study the cause-and-effect relationships in the context of some well-known physical phenomena. We show that this technique can not only figure out associations among data, but is also able to correctly ascertain the cause-and-effect relations amongst the variables, thereby strengthening (or weakening) our confidence in the proposed model of the underlying physical process.
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Neural networks (NNs) are primarily developed within the frequentist statistical framework. Nevertheless, frequentist NNs lack the capability to provide uncertainties in the predictions, and hence their robustness can not be adequately assessed. Conversely, the Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) naturally offer predictive uncertainty by applying Bayes' theorem. However, their computational requirements pose significant challenges. Moreover, both frequentist NNs and BNNs suffer from overfitting issues when dealing with noisy and sparse data, which render their predictions unwieldy away from the available data space. To address both these problems simultaneously, we leverage insights from a hierarchical setting in which the parameter priors are conditional on hyperparameters to construct a BNN by applying a semi-analytical framework known as nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning (NSBL). We call our network sparse Bayesian neural network (SBNN) which aims to address the practical and computational issues associated with BNNs. Simultaneously, imposing a sparsity-inducing prior encourages the automatic pruning of redundant parameters based on the automatic relevance determination (ARD) concept. This process involves removing redundant parameters by optimally selecting the precision of the parameters prior probability density functions (pdfs), resulting in a tractable treatment for overfitting. To demonstrate the benefits of the SBNN algorithm, the study presents an illustrative regression problem and compares the results of a BNN using standard Bayesian inference, hierarchical Bayesian inference, and a BNN equipped with the proposed algorithm. Subsequently, we demonstrate the importance of considering the full parameter posterior by comparing the results with those obtained using the Laplace approximation with and without NSBL.
This article establishes novel strong uniform laws of large numbers for randomly weighted sums such as bootstrap means. By leveraging recent advances, these results extend previous work in their general applicability to a wide range of weighting procedures and in their flexibility with respect to the effective bootstrap sample size. In addition to the standard multinomial bootstrap and the m-out-of-n bootstrap, our results apply to a large class of randomly weighted sums involving negatively orthant dependent (NOD) weights, including the Bayesian bootstrap, jackknife, resampling without replacement, simple random sampling with over-replacement, independent weights, and multivariate Gaussian weighting schemes. Weights are permitted to be non-identically distributed and possibly even negative. Our proof technique is based on extending a proof of the i.i.d. strong uniform law of large numbers to employ strong laws for randomly weighted sums; in particular, we exploit a recent Marcinkiewicz--Zygmund strong law for NOD weighted sums.
In this work, we introduce a new acquisition function for sequential sampling to efficiently quantify rare-event statistics of an input-to-response (ItR) system with given input probability and expensive function evaluations. Our acquisition is a generalization of the likelihood-weighted (LW) acquisition that was initially designed for the same purpose and then extended to many other applications. The improvement in our acquisition comes from the generalized form with two additional parameters, by varying which one can target and address two weaknesses of the original LW acquisition: (1) that the input space associated with rare-event responses is not sufficiently stressed in sampling; (2) that the surrogate model (generated from samples) may have significant deviation from the true ItR function, especially for cases with complex ItR function and limited number of samples. In addition, we develop a critical procedure in Monte-Carlo discrete optimization of the acquisition function, which achieves orders of magnitude acceleration compared to existing approaches for such type of problems. The superior performance of our new acquisition to the original LW acquisition is demonstrated in a number of test cases, including some cases that were designed to show the effectiveness of the original LW acquisition. We finally apply our method to an engineering example to quantify the rare-event roll-motion statistics of a ship in a random sea.
Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) may suffer from limited scope. In particular, samples may be unrepresentative: some RCTs over- or under- sample individuals with certain characteristics compared to the target population, for which one wants conclusions on treatment effectiveness. Re-weighting trial individuals to match the target population can improve the treatment effect estimation. In this work, we establish the exact expressions of the bias and variance of such reweighting procedures -- also called Inverse Propensity of Sampling Weighting (IPSW) -- in presence of categorical covariates for any sample size. Such results allow us to compare the theoretical performance of different versions of IPSW estimates. Besides, our results show how the performance (bias, variance, and quadratic risk) of IPSW estimates depends on the two sample sizes (RCT and target population). A by-product of our work is the proof of consistency of IPSW estimates. Results also reveal that IPSW performances are improved when the trial probability to be treated is estimated (rather than using its oracle counterpart). In addition, we study choice of variables: how including covariates that are not necessary for identifiability of the causal effect may impact the asymptotic variance. Including covariates that are shifted between the two samples but not treatment effect modifiers increases the variance while non-shifted but treatment effect modifiers do not. We illustrate all the takeaways in a didactic example, and on a semi-synthetic simulation inspired from critical care medicine.
Measurement-based quantum computation (MBQC) offers a fundamentally unique paradigm to design quantum algorithms. Indeed, due to the inherent randomness of quantum measurements, the natural operations in MBQC are not deterministic and unitary, but are rather augmented with probabilistic byproducts. Yet, the main algorithmic use of MBQC so far has been to completely counteract this probabilistic nature in order to simulate unitary computations expressed in the circuit model. In this work, we propose designing MBQC algorithms that embrace this inherent randomness and treat the random byproducts in MBQC as a resource for computation. As a natural application where randomness can be beneficial, we consider generative modeling, a task in machine learning centered around generating complex probability distributions. To address this task, we propose a variational MBQC algorithm equipped with control parameters that allow to directly adjust the degree of randomness to be admitted in the computation. Our numerical findings indicate that this additional randomness can lead to significant gains in learning performance in certain generative modeling tasks. These results highlight the potential advantages in exploiting the inherent randomness of MBQC and motivate further research into MBQC-based algorithms.
We observe a large variety of robots in terms of their bodies, sensors, and actuators. Given the commonalities in the skill sets, teaching each skill to each different robot independently is inefficient and not scalable when the large variety in the robotic landscape is considered. If we can learn the correspondences between the sensorimotor spaces of different robots, we can expect a skill that is learned in one robot can be more directly and easily transferred to the other robots. In this paper, we propose a method to learn correspondences between robots that have significant differences in their morphologies: a fixed-based manipulator robot with joint control and a differential drive mobile robot. For this, both robots are first given demonstrations that achieve the same tasks. A common latent representation is formed while learning the corresponding policies. After this initial learning stage, the observation of a new task execution by one robot becomes sufficient to generate a latent space representation pertaining to the other robot to achieve the same task. We verified our system in a set of experiments where the correspondence between two simulated robots is learned (1) when the robots need to follow the same paths to achieve the same task, (2) when the robots need to follow different trajectories to achieve the same task, and (3) when complexities of the required sensorimotor trajectories are different for the robots considered. We also provide a proof-of-the-concept realization of correspondence learning between a real manipulator robot and a simulated mobile robot.
Models of complex technological systems inherently contain interactions and dependencies among their input variables that affect their joint influence on the output. Such models are often computationally expensive and few sensitivity analysis methods can effectively process such complexities. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis field as a whole pays limited attention to the nature of interaction effects, whose understanding can prove to be critical for the design of safe and reliable systems. In this paper, we introduce and extensively test a simple binning approach for computing sensitivity indices and demonstrate how complementing it with the smart visualization method, simulation decomposition (SimDec), can permit important insights into the behavior of complex engineering models. The simple binning approach computes first-, second-order effects, and a combined sensitivity index, and is considerably more computationally efficient than Sobol' indices. The totality of the sensitivity analysis framework provides an efficient and intuitive way to analyze the behavior of complex systems containing interactions and dependencies.
Composite likelihood usually ignores dependencies among response components, while variational approximation to likelihood ignores dependencies among parameter components. We derive a Gaussian variational approximation to the composite log-likelihood function for Poisson and Gamma regression models with crossed random effects. We show consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimates derived from this approximation and support this theory with some simulation studies. The approach is computationally much faster than a Gaussian variational approximation to the full log-likelihood function.
In two and three dimensions, we design and analyze a posteriori error estimators for the mixed Stokes eigenvalue problem. The unknowns on this mixed formulation are the pseudotress, velocity and pressure. With a lowest order mixed finite element scheme, together with a postprocressing technique, we prove that the proposed estimator is reliable and efficient. We illustrate the results with several numerical tests in two and three dimensions in order to assess the performance of the estimator.
The goal of explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is to generate human-interpretable explanations, but there are no computationally precise theories of how humans interpret AI generated explanations. The lack of theory means that validation of XAI must be done empirically, on a case-by-case basis, which prevents systematic theory-building in XAI. We propose a psychological theory of how humans draw conclusions from saliency maps, the most common form of XAI explanation, which for the first time allows for precise prediction of explainee inference conditioned on explanation. Our theory posits that absent explanation humans expect the AI to make similar decisions to themselves, and that they interpret an explanation by comparison to the explanations they themselves would give. Comparison is formalized via Shepard's universal law of generalization in a similarity space, a classic theory from cognitive science. A pre-registered user study on AI image classifications with saliency map explanations demonstrate that our theory quantitatively matches participants' predictions of the AI.
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