We consider the problem of state estimation from $m$ linear measurements, where the state $u$ to recover is an element of the manifold $\mathcal{M}$ of solutions of a parameter-dependent equation. The state is estimated using a prior knowledge on $\mathcal{M}$ coming from model order reduction. Variational approaches based on linear approximation of $\mathcal{M}$, such as PBDW, yields a recovery error limited by the Kolmogorov $m$-width of $\mathcal{M}$. To overcome this issue, piecewise-affine approximations of $\mathcal{M}$ have also be considered, that consist in using a library of linear spaces among which one is selected by minimizing some distance to $\mathcal{M}$. In this paper, we propose a state estimation method relying on dictionary-based model reduction, where a space is selected from a library generated by a dictionary of snapshots, using a distance to the manifold. The selection is performed among a set of candidate spaces obtained from the path of a $\ell_1$-regularized least-squares problem. Then, in the framework of parameter-dependent operator equations (or PDEs) with affine parameterizations, we provide an efficient offline-online decomposition based on randomized linear algebra, that ensures efficient and stable computations while preserving theoretical guarantees.
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We consider off-policy evaluation of dynamic treatment rules under sequential ignorability, given an assumption that the underlying system can be modeled as a partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP). We propose an estimator, partial history importance weighting, and show that it can consistently estimate the stationary mean rewards of a target policy given long enough draws from the behavior policy. We provide an upper bound on its error that decays polynomially in the number of observations (i.e., the number of trajectories times their length), with an exponent that depends on the overlap of the target and behavior policies, and on the mixing time of the underlying system. Furthermore, we show that this rate of convergence is minimax given only our assumptions on mixing and overlap. Our results establish that off-policy evaluation in POMDPs is strictly harder than off-policy evaluation in (fully observed) Markov decision processes, but strictly easier than model-free off-policy evaluation.
It is often desirable to summarise a probability measure on a space $X$ in terms of a mode, or MAP estimator, i.e.\ a point of maximum probability. Such points can be rigorously defined using masses of metric balls in the small-radius limit. However, the theory is not entirely straightforward: the literature contains multiple notions of mode and various examples of pathological measures that have no mode in any sense. Since the masses of balls induce natural orderings on the points of $X$, this article aims to shed light on some of the problems in non-parametric MAP estimation by taking an order-theoretic perspective, which appears to be a new one in the inverse problems community. This point of view opens up attractive proof strategies based upon the Cantor and Kuratowski intersection theorems; it also reveals that many of the pathologies arise from the distinction between greatest and maximal elements of an order, and from the existence of incomparable elements of $X$, which we show can be dense in $X$, even for an absolutely continuous measure on $X = \mathbb{R}$.
Given graphs $H$ and $G$, possibly with vertex-colors, a homomorphism is a function $f:V(H)\to V(G)$ that preserves colors and edges. Many interesting counting problems (e.g., subgraph and induced subgraph counts) are finite linear combinations $p(\cdot)=\sum_{H}\alpha_{H}\hom(H,\cdot)$ of homomorphism counts, and such linear combinations are known to be hard to evaluate iff they contain a large-treewidth graph $S$. The hardness can be shown in two steps: First, the problems $\hom(S,\cdot)$ for colorful (i.e., bijectively colored) large-treewidth graphs $S$ are shown to be hard. In a second step, these problems are reduced to finite linear combinations of homomorphism counts that contain the uncolored version $S^{\circ}$ of $S$. This step can be performed via inclusion-exclusion in $2^{|E(S)|}\mathrm{poly}(n,s)$ time, where $n$ is the size of the input graph and $s$ is the maximum number of vertices among all graphs in the linear combination. We show that the second step can be performed even in time $4^{\Delta(S)}\mathrm{poly}(n,s)$, where $\Delta(S)$ is the maximum degree of $S$. Our reduction is based on graph products with Cai-F\"urer-Immerman graphs, a novel technique that is likely of independent interest. For colorful graphs $S$ of constant maximum degree, this technique yields a polynomial-time reduction from $\hom(S,\cdot)$ to linear combinations of homomorphism counts involving $S^{\circ}$. Under certain conditions, it actually suffices that a supergraph $T$ of $S^{\circ}$ is contained in the target linear combination. The new reduction yields $\mathsf{\#P}$-hardness results for several counting problems that could previously be studied only under parameterized complexity assumptions. This includes the problems of counting, on input a graph from a restricted graph class and a general graph $G$, the homomorphisms or (induced) subgraph copies from $H$ in $G$.
In this paper we consider the compression of asymptotically many i.i.d. copies of ensembles of mixed quantum states where the encoder has access to a side information system. The figure of merit is per-copy or local error criterion. Rate-distortion theory studies the trade-off between the compression rate and the per-copy error. The optimal trade-off can be characterized by the rate-distortion function, which is the best rate given a certain distortion. In this paper, we derive the rate-distortion function of mixed-state compression. The rate-distortion functions in the entanglement-assisted and unassisted scenarios are in terms of a single-letter mutual information quantity and the regularized entanglement of purification, respectively. For the general setting where the consumption of both communication and entanglement are considered, we present the full qubit-entanglement rate region. Our compression scheme covers both blind and visible compression models (and other models in between) depending on the structure of the side information system.
Sampling a probability distribution with known likelihood is a fundamental task in computational science and engineering. Aiming at multimodality, we propose a new sampling method that takes advantage of both birth-death process and exploration component. The main idea of this method is \textit{look before you leap}. We keep two sets of samplers, one at warmer temperature and one at original temperature. The former one serves as pioneer in exploring new modes and passing useful information to the other, while the latter one samples the target distribution after receiving the information. We derive a mean-field limit and show how the exploration process determines sampling efficiency. Moreover, we prove exponential asymptotic convergence under mild assumption. Finally, we test on experiments from previous literature and compared our methodology to previous ones.
Many real-world systems modeled using differential equations involve unknown or uncertain parameters. Standard approaches to address parameter estimation inverse problems in this setting typically focus on estimating constants; yet some unobservable system parameters may vary with time without known evolution models. In this work, we propose a novel approximation method inspired by the Fourier series to estimate time-varying parameters in deterministic dynamical systems modeled with ordinary differential equations. Using ensemble Kalman filtering in conjunction with Fourier series-based approximation models, we detail two possible implementation schemes for sequentially updating the time-varying parameter estimates given noisy observations of the system states. We demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed approach in estimating periodic parameters, both when the period is known and unknown, as well as non-periodic time-varying parameters of different forms with several computed examples using a forced harmonic oscillator. Results emphasize the importance of the frequencies and number of approximation model terms on the time-varying parameter estimates and corresponding dynamical system predictions.
We propose a new auto-regressive model for the statistical analysis of multivariate distributional time series. The data of interest consist of a collection of multiple series of probability measures supported over a bounded interval of the real line, and that are indexed by distinct time instants. The probability measures are modelled as random objects in the Wasserstein space. We establish the auto-regressive model in the tangent space at the Lebesgue measure by first centering all the raw measures so that their Fr\'echet means turn to be the Lebesgue measure. Using the theory of iterated random function systems, results on the existence, uniqueness and stationarity of the solution of such a model are provided. We also propose a consistent estimator for the model coefficient. In addition to the analysis of simulated data, the proposed model is illustrated with two real data sets made of observations from age distribution in different countries and bike sharing network in Paris. Finally, due to the positive and boundedness constraints that we impose on the model coefficients, the proposed estimator that is learned under these constraints, naturally has a sparse structure. The sparsity allows furthermore the application of the proposed model in learning a graph of temporal dependency from the multivariate distributional time series.
Bayesian optimization is a class of global optimization techniques. In Bayesian optimization, the underlying objective function is modeled as a realization of a Gaussian process. Although the Gaussian process assumption implies a random distribution of the Bayesian optimization outputs, quantification of this uncertainty is rarely studied in the literature. In this work, we propose a novel approach to assess the output uncertainty of Bayesian optimization algorithms, which proceeds by constructing confidence regions of the maximum point (or value) of the objective function. These regions can be computed efficiently, and their confidence levels are guaranteed by the uniform error bounds for sequential Gaussian process regression newly developed in the present work. Our theory provides a unified uncertainty quantification framework for all existing sequential sampling policies and stopping criteria.
Training a neural network (NN) typically relies on some type of curve-following method, such as gradient descent (GD) (and stochastic gradient descent (SGD)), ADADELTA, ADAM or limited memory algorithms. Convergence for these algorithms usually relies on having access to a large quantity of observations in order to achieve a high level of accuracy and, with certain classes of functions, these algorithms could take multiple epochs of data points to catch on. Herein, a different technique with the potential of achieving dramatically better speeds of convergence, especially for shallow networks, is explored: it does not curve-follow but rather relies on 'decoupling' hidden layers and on updating their weighted connections through bootstrapping, resampling and linear regression. By utilizing resampled observations, the convergence of this process is empirically shown to be remarkably fast and to require a lower amount of data points: in particular, our experiments show that one needs a fraction of the observations that are required with traditional neural network training methods to approximate various classes of functions.
Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.
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