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Reinforcement learning algorithms commonly seek to optimize policies for solving one particular task. How should we explore an unknown dynamical system such that the estimated model allows us to solve multiple downstream tasks in a zero-shot manner? In this paper, we address this challenge, by developing an algorithm -- OPAX -- for active exploration. OPAX uses well-calibrated probabilistic models to quantify the epistemic uncertainty about the unknown dynamics. It optimistically -- w.r.t. to plausible dynamics -- maximizes the information gain between the unknown dynamics and state observations. We show how the resulting optimization problem can be reduced to an optimal control problem that can be solved at each episode using standard approaches. We analyze our algorithm for general models, and, in the case of Gaussian process dynamics, we give a sample complexity bound and show that the epistemic uncertainty converges to zero. In our experiments, we compare OPAX with other heuristic active exploration approaches on several environments. Our experiments show that OPAX is not only theoretically sound but also performs well for zero-shot planning on novel downstream tasks.

The classical Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) control framework lacks reliable safety guarantees since it relies on a risk-neutral trajectory evaluation technique, which can present challenges for safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving. Additionally, if the majority of MPPI sampled trajectories concentrate in high-cost regions, it may generate an infeasible control sequence. To address this challenge, we propose the U-MPPI control strategy, a novel methodology that can effectively manage system uncertainties while integrating a more efficient trajectory sampling strategy. The core concept is to leverage the Unscented Transform (UT) to propagate not only the mean but also the covariance of the system dynamics, going beyond the traditional MPPI method. As a result, it introduces a novel and more efficient trajectory sampling strategy, significantly enhancing state-space exploration and ultimately reducing the risk of being trapped in local minima. Furthermore, by leveraging the uncertainty information provided by UT, we incorporate a risk-sensitive cost function that explicitly accounts for risk or uncertainty throughout the trajectory evaluation process, resulting in a more resilient control system capable of handling uncertain conditions. By conducting extensive simulations of 2D aggressive autonomous navigation in both known and unknown cluttered environments, we verify the efficiency and robustness of our proposed U-MPPI control strategy compared to the baseline MPPI. We further validate the practicality of U-MPPI through real-world demonstrations in unknown cluttered environments, showcasing its superior ability to incorporate both the UT and local costmap into the optimization problem without introducing additional complexity.

This paper aims to characterize the typical factual characteristics of financial market returns and volatility and address the problem that the tail characteristics of asset returns have been not sufficiently considered, as an attempt to more effectively avoid risks and productively manage stock market risks. Thus, in this paper, the fat-tailed distribution and the leverage effect are introduced into the SV model. Next, the model parameters are estimated through MCMC. Subsequently, the fat-tailed distribution of financial market returns is comprehensively characterized and then incorporated with extreme value theory to fit the tail distribution of standard residuals. Afterward, a new financial risk measurement model is built, which is termed the SV-EVT-VaR-based dynamic model. With the use of daily S&P 500 index and simulated returns, the empirical results are achieved, which reveal that the SV-EVT-based models can outperform other models for out-of-sample data in backtesting and depicting the fat-tailed property of financial returns and leverage effect.

Stochastic optimization has found wide applications in minimizing objective functions in machine learning, which motivates a lot of theoretical studies to understand its practical success. Most of existing studies focus on the convergence of optimization errors, while the generalization analysis of stochastic optimization is much lagging behind. This is especially the case for nonconvex and nonsmooth problems often encountered in practice. In this paper, we initialize a systematic stability and generalization analysis of stochastic optimization on nonconvex and nonsmooth problems. We introduce novel algorithmic stability measures and establish their quantitative connection on the gap between population gradients and empirical gradients, which is then further extended to study the gap between the Moreau envelope of the empirical risk and that of the population risk. To our knowledge, these quantitative connection between stability and generalization in terms of either gradients or Moreau envelopes have not been studied in the literature. We introduce a class of sampling-determined algorithms, for which we develop bounds for three stability measures. Finally, we apply these discussions to derive error bounds for stochastic gradient descent and its adaptive variant, where we show how to achieve an implicit regularization by tuning the step sizes and the number of iterations.

This paper proposes two distributed random reshuffling methods, namely Gradient Tracking with Random Reshuffling (GT-RR) and Exact Diffusion with Random Reshuffling (ED-RR), to solve the distributed optimization problem over a connected network, where a set of agents aim to minimize the average of their local cost functions. Both algorithms invoke random reshuffling (RR) update for each agent, inherit favorable characteristics of RR for minimizing smooth nonconvex objective functions, and improve the performance of previous distributed random reshuffling methods both theoretically and empirically. Specifically, both GT-RR and ED-RR achieve the convergence rate of $O(1/[(1-\lambda)^{1/3}m^{1/3}T^{2/3}])$ in driving the (minimum) expected squared norm of the gradient to zero, where $T$ denotes the number of epochs, $m$ is the sample size for each agent, and $1-\lambda$ represents the spectral gap of the mixing matrix. When the objective functions further satisfy the Polyak-{\L}ojasiewicz (PL) condition, we show GT-RR and ED-RR both achieve $O(1/[(1-\lambda)mT^2])$ convergence rate in terms of the averaged expected differences between the agents' function values and the global minimum value. Notably, both results are comparable to the convergence rates of centralized RR methods (up to constant factors depending on the network topology) and outperform those of previous distributed random reshuffling algorithms. Moreover, we support the theoretical findings with a set of numerical experiments.

We present our approach, Collision Avoidance Detour (CAD), which won the 3rd place award in the 2023 Waymo Open Dataset Challenge - Sim Agents, held at the 2023 CVPR Workshop on Autonomous Driving. To satisfy the motion prediction factorization requirement, we partition all the valid objects into three mutually exclusive sets: Autonomous Driving Vehicle (ADV), World-tracks-to-predict, and World-others. We use different motion models to forecast their future trajectories independently. Furthermore, we also apply collision avoidance detour resampling, additive Gaussian noise, and velocity-based heading estimation to improve the realism of our simulation result.

We establish globally optimal solutions to a class of fractional optimization problems on a class of constraint sets, whose key characteristics are as follows: 1) The numerator and the denominator of the objective function are both convex, semi-algebraic, Lipschitz continuous and differentiable with Lipschitz continuous gradients on the constraint set. 2) The constraint set is closed, convex and semi-algebraic. Compared with Dinkelbach's approach, our novelty falls into the following aspects: 1) Dinkelbach's has to solve a concave maximization problem in each iteration, which is nontrivial to obtain a solution, while ours only needs to conduct one proximity gradient operation in each iteration. 2) Dinkelbach's requires at least one nonnegative point for the numerator to proceed the algorithm, but ours does not, which is available to a much wider class of situations. 3) Dinkelbach's requires a closed and bounded constraint set, while ours only needs the closedness but not necessarily the boundedness. Therefore, our approach is viable for many more practical models, like optimizing the Sharpe ratio (SR) or the Information ratio in mathematical finance. Numerical experiments show that our approach achieves the ground-truth solutions in two simple examples. For real-world financial data, it outperforms several existing approaches for SR maximization.

Data assimilation, in its most comprehensive form, addresses the Bayesian inverse problem of identifying plausible state trajectories that explain noisy or incomplete observations of stochastic dynamical systems. Various approaches have been proposed to solve this problem, including particle-based and variational methods. However, most algorithms depend on the transition dynamics for inference, which becomes intractable for long time horizons or for high-dimensional systems with complex dynamics, such as oceans or atmospheres. In this work, we introduce score-based data assimilation for trajectory inference. We learn a score-based generative model of state trajectories based on the key insight that the score of an arbitrarily long trajectory can be decomposed into a series of scores over short segments. After training, inference is carried out using the score model, in a non-autoregressive manner by generating all states simultaneously. Quite distinctively, we decouple the observation model from the training procedure and use it only at inference to guide the generative process, which enables a wide range of zero-shot observation scenarios. We present theoretical and empirical evidence supporting the effectiveness of our method.

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.

A key requirement for the success of supervised deep learning is a large labeled dataset - a condition that is difficult to meet in medical image analysis. Self-supervised learning (SSL) can help in this regard by providing a strategy to pre-train a neural network with unlabeled data, followed by fine-tuning for a downstream task with limited annotations. Contrastive learning, a particular variant of SSL, is a powerful technique for learning image-level representations. In this work, we propose strategies for extending the contrastive learning framework for segmentation of volumetric medical images in the semi-supervised setting with limited annotations, by leveraging domain-specific and problem-specific cues. Specifically, we propose (1) novel contrasting strategies that leverage structural similarity across volumetric medical images (domain-specific cue) and (2) a local version of the contrastive loss to learn distinctive representations of local regions that are useful for per-pixel segmentation (problem-specific cue). We carry out an extensive evaluation on three Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) datasets. In the limited annotation setting, the proposed method yields substantial improvements compared to other self-supervision and semi-supervised learning techniques. When combined with a simple data augmentation technique, the proposed method reaches within 8% of benchmark performance using only two labeled MRI volumes for training, corresponding to only 4% (for ACDC) of the training data used to train the benchmark.