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In this study, we propose a novel surrogate modelling approach to efficiently and accurately approximate the response of complex dynamical systems driven by time-varying Recently, there has been increased interest in assessing the seismic fragility of industrial plants and process equipment. This is reflected in the growing number of studies, community-funded research projects and experimental campaigns on the matter.Nonetheless, the complexity of the problem and its inherent modelling, coupled with a general scarcity of available data on process equipment, has limited the development of risk assessment methods. In fact, these limitations have led to the creation of simplified and quick-to-run models. In this context, we propose an innovative framework for developing state-dependent fragility functions. This new methodology combines limited data with the power of metamodelling and statistical techniques, namely polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) and bootstrapping. Therefore, we validated the framework on a simplified and inexpensive-to-run MDoF system endowed with Bouc-Wen hysteresis.Then, we tested it on a real nonstructural industrial process component. Specifically, we applied the state-dependent fragility framework to a critical vertical tank of a multicomponent full-scale 3D steel braced frame (BF). The seismic performance of the BF endowed with process components was captured by means of shake table campaign within the European SPIF project. Finally, we derived state-dependent fragility functions based on the combination of PCE and bootstrap at a greatly reduced computational cost.

This manuscript derives locally weighted ensemble Kalman methods from the point of view of ensemble-based function approximation. This is done by using pointwise evaluations to build up a local linear or quadratic approximation of a function, tapering off the effect of distant particles via local weighting. This introduces a candidate method (the locally weighted Ensemble Kalman method for inversion) with the motivation of combining some of the strengths of the particle filter (ability to cope with nonlinear maps and non-Gaussian distributions) and the Ensemble Kalman filter (no filter degeneracy).

In this paper, we study the Boltzmann equation with uncertainties and prove that the spectral convergence of the semi-discretized numerical system holds in a combined velocity and random space, where the Fourier-spectral method is applied for approximation in the velocity space whereas the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC)-based stochastic Galerkin (SG) method is employed to discretize the random variable. Our proof is based on a delicate energy estimate for showing the well-posedness of the numerical solution as well as a rigorous control of its negative part in our well-designed functional space that involves high-order derivatives of both the velocity and random variables. This paper rigorously justifies the statement proposed in [Remark 4.4, J. Hu and S. Jin, J. Comput. Phys., 315 (2016), pp. 150-168].

We study how to construct a stochastic process on a finite interval with given `roughness' and finite joint moments of marginal distributions. We first extend Ciesielski's isomorphism along a general sequence of partitions, and provide a characterization of H\"older regularity of a function in terms of its Schauder coefficients. Using this characterization we provide a better (pathwise) estimator of H\"older exponent. As an additional application, we construct fake (fractional) Brownian motions with some path properties and finite moments of marginal distributions same as (fractional) Brownian motions. These belong to non-Gaussian families of stochastic processes which are statistically difficult to distinguish from real (fractional) Brownian motions.

We propose a continuous approach for computing the pseudospectra of linear operators following a 'solve-then-discretize' strategy. Instead of taking a finite section approach or using a finite-dimensional matrix to approximate the operator of interest, the new method employs an operator analogue of the Lanczos process to work directly with operators and functions. The method is shown to be free of spectral pollution and spectral invisibility, fully adaptive, nearly optimal in accuracy, and well-conditioned. The advantages of the method are demonstrated by extensive numerical examples and comparison with the traditional method.

We study the properties of a family of distances between functions of a single variable. These distances are examples of integral probability metrics, and have been used previously for comparing probability measures on the line; special cases include the Earth Mover's Distance and the Kolmogorov Metric. We examine their properties for general signals, proving that they are robust to a broad class of deformations. We also establish corresponding robustness results for the induced sliced distances between multivariate functions. Finally, we establish error bounds for approximating the univariate metrics from finite samples, and prove that these approximations are robust to additive Gaussian noise. The results are illustrated in numerical experiments, which include comparisons with Wasserstein distances.

In some causal inference scenarios, the treatment variable is measured inaccurately, for instance in epidemiology or econometrics. Failure to correct for the effect of this measurement error can lead to biased causal effect estimates. Previous research has not studied methods that address this issue from a causal viewpoint while allowing for complex nonlinear dependencies and without assuming access to side information. For such a scenario, this study proposes a model that assumes a continuous treatment variable that is inaccurately measured. Building on existing results for measurement error models, we prove that our model's causal effect estimates are identifiable, even without knowledge of the measurement error variance or other side information. Our method relies on a deep latent variable model in which Gaussian conditionals are parameterized by neural networks, and we develop an amortized importance-weighted variational objective for training the model. Empirical results demonstrate the method's good performance with unknown measurement error. More broadly, our work extends the range of applications in which reliable causal inference can be conducted.

This thesis is a corpus-based, quantitative, and typological analysis of the functions of Early Slavic participle constructions and their finite competitors ($jegda$-'when'-clauses). The first part leverages detailed linguistic annotation on Early Slavic corpora at the morphosyntactic, dependency, information-structural, and lexical levels to obtain indirect evidence for different potential functions of participle clauses and their main finite competitor and understand the roles of compositionality and default discourse reasoning as explanations for the distribution of participle constructions and $jegda$-clauses in the corpus. The second part uses massively parallel data to analyze typological variation in how languages express the semantic space of English $when$, whose scope encompasses that of Early Slavic participle constructions and $jegda$-clauses. Probabilistic semantic maps are generated and statistical methods (including Kriging, Gaussian Mixture Modelling, precision and recall analysis) are used to induce cross-linguistically salient dimensions from the parallel corpus and to study conceptual variation within the semantic space of the hypothetical concept WHEN.

Likelihood-free inference methods based on neural conditional density estimation were shown to drastically reduce the simulation burden in comparison to classical methods such as ABC. When applied in the context of any latent variable model, such as a Hidden Markov model (HMM), these methods are designed to only estimate the parameters, rather than the joint distribution of the parameters and the hidden states. Naive application of these methods to a HMM, ignoring the inference of this joint posterior distribution, will thus produce an inaccurate estimate of the posterior predictive distribution, in turn hampering the assessment of goodness-of-fit. To rectify this problem, we propose a novel, sample-efficient likelihood-free method for estimating the high-dimensional hidden states of an implicit HMM. Our approach relies on learning directly the intractable posterior distribution of the hidden states, using an autoregressive-flow, by exploiting the Markov property. Upon evaluating our approach on some implicit HMMs, we found that the quality of the estimates retrieved using our method is comparable to what can be achieved using a much more computationally expensive SMC algorithm.

Optimization over the set of matrices that satisfy $X^\top B X = I_p$, referred to as the generalized Stiefel manifold, appears in many applications involving sampled covariance matrices such as canonical correlation analysis (CCA), independent component analysis (ICA), and the generalized eigenvalue problem (GEVP). Solving these problems is typically done by iterative methods, such as Riemannian approaches, which require a computationally expensive eigenvalue decomposition involving fully formed $B$. We propose a cheap stochastic iterative method that solves the optimization problem while having access only to a random estimate of the feasible set. Our method does not enforce the constraint in every iteration exactly, but instead it produces iterations that converge to a critical point on the generalized Stiefel manifold defined in expectation. The method has lower per-iteration cost, requires only matrix multiplications, and has the same convergence rates as its Riemannian counterparts involving the full matrix $B$. Experiments demonstrate its effectiveness in various machine learning applications involving generalized orthogonality constraints, including CCA, ICA, and GEVP.