We introduce new approaches for forecasting IBNR (Incurred But Not Reported) frequencies by leveraging individual claims data, which includes accident date, reporting delay, and possibly additional features for every reported claim. A key element of our proposal involves computing development factors, which may be influenced by both the accident date and other features. These development factors serve as the basis for predictions. While we assume close to continuous observations of accident date and reporting delay, the development factors can be expressed at any level of granularity, such as months, quarters, or year and predictions across different granularity levels exhibit coherence. The calculation of development factors relies on the estimation of a hazard function in reverse development time, and we present three distinct methods for estimating this function: the Cox proportional hazard model, a feed-forward neural network, and xgboost (eXtreme gradient boosting). In all three cases, estimation is based on the same partial likelihood that accommodates left truncation and ties in the data. While the first case is a semi-parametric model that assumes in parts a log linear structure, the two machine learning approaches only assume that the baseline and the other factors are multiplicatively separable. Through an extensive simulation study and real-world data application, our approach demonstrates promising results. This paper comes with an accompanying R-package, $\texttt{ReSurv}$, which can be accessed at \url{//github.com/edhofman/ReSurv}
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Deep generative models are key-enabling technology to computer vision, text generation, and large language models. Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) have recently gained much attention due to their ability to generate diverse and high-quality samples in many computer vision tasks, as well as to incorporate flexible model architectures and a relatively simple training scheme. Quantum generative models, empowered by entanglement and superposition, have brought new insight to learning classical and quantum data. Inspired by the classical counterpart, we propose the quantum denoising diffusion probabilistic model (QuDDPM) to enable efficiently trainable generative learning of quantum data. QuDDPM adopts sufficient layers of circuits to guarantee expressivity, while it introduces multiple intermediate training tasks as interpolation between the target distribution and noise to avoid barren plateau and guarantee efficient training. We provide bounds on the learning error and demonstrate QuDDPM's capability in learning correlated quantum noise model, quantum many-body phases, and topological structure of quantum data. The results provide a paradigm for versatile and efficient quantum generative learning.
The increasing requirements for data protection and privacy has attracted a huge research interest on distributed artificial intelligence and specifically on federated learning, an emerging machine learning approach that allows the construction of a model between several participants who hold their own private data. In the initial proposal of federated learning the architecture was centralised and the aggregation was done with federated averaging, meaning that a central server will orchestrate the federation using the most straightforward averaging strategy. This research is focused on testing different federated strategies in a peer-to-peer environment. The authors propose various aggregation strategies for federated learning, including weighted averaging aggregation, using different factors and strategies based on participant contribution. The strategies are tested with varying data sizes to identify the most robust ones. This research tests the strategies with several biomedical datasets and the results of the experiments show that the accuracy-based weighted average outperforms the classical federated averaging method.
In recent years, Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) methods for solving partial differential equations (PDEs) have gained increasing popularity. Within such a paradigm, Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) are novel deep learning frameworks for solving initial-boundary value problems involving nonlinear PDEs. Recently, PINNs have shown promising results in several application fields. Motivated by applications to gas filtration problems, here we present and evaluate a PINN-based approach to predict solutions to strongly degenerate parabolic problems with asymptotic structure of Laplacian type. To the best of our knowledge, this is one of the first papers demonstrating the efficacy of the PINN framework for solving such kind of problems. In particular, we estimate an appropriate approximation error for some test problems whose analytical solutions are fortunately known. The numerical experiments discussed include two and three-dimensional spatial domains, emphasizing the effectiveness of this approach in predicting accurate solutions.
Non-Hermitian topological phases can produce some remarkable properties, compared with their Hermitian counterpart, such as the breakdown of conventional bulk-boundary correspondence and the non-Hermitian topological edge mode. Here, we introduce several algorithms with multi-layer perceptron (MLP), and convolutional neural network (CNN) in the field of deep learning, to predict the winding of eigenvalues non-Hermitian Hamiltonians. Subsequently, we use the smallest module of the periodic circuit as one unit to construct high-dimensional circuit data features. Further, we use the Dense Convolutional Network (DenseNet), a type of convolutional neural network that utilizes dense connections between layers to design a non-Hermitian topolectrical Chern circuit, as the DenseNet algorithm is more suitable for processing high-dimensional data. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of the deep learning network in capturing the global topological characteristics of a non-Hermitian system based on training data.
Motivated by the important statistical role of sparsity, the paper uncovers four reparametrizations for covariance matrices in which sparsity is associated with conditional independence graphs in a notional Gaussian model. The intimate relationship between the Iwasawa decomposition of the general linear group and the open cone of positive definite matrices allows a unifying perspective. Specifically, the positive definite cone can be reconstructed without loss or redundancy from the exponential map applied to four Lie subalgebras determined by the Iwasawa decomposition of the general linear group. This accords geometric interpretations to the reparametrizations and the corresponding notion of sparsity. Conditions that ensure legitimacy of the reparametrizations for statistical models are identified. While the focus of this work is on understanding population-level structure, there are strong methodological implications. In particular, since the population-level sparsity manifests in a vector space, imposition of sparsity on relevant sample quantities produces a covariance estimate that respects the positive definite cone constraint.
Mesh-based Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have recently shown capabilities to simulate complex multiphysics problems with accelerated performance times. However, mesh-based GNNs require a large number of message-passing (MP) steps and suffer from over-smoothing for problems involving very fine mesh. In this work, we develop a multiscale mesh-based GNN framework mimicking a conventional iterative multigrid solver, coupled with adaptive mesh refinement (AMR), to mitigate challenges with conventional mesh-based GNNs. We use the framework to accelerate phase field (PF) fracture problems involving coupled partial differential equations with a near-singular operator due to near-zero modulus inside the crack. We define the initial graph representation using all mesh resolution levels. We perform a series of downsampling steps using Transformer MP GNNs to reach the coarsest graph followed by upsampling steps to reach the original graph. We use skip connectors from the generated embedding during coarsening to prevent over-smoothing. We use Transfer Learning (TL) to significantly reduce the size of training datasets needed to simulate different crack configurations and loading conditions. The trained framework showed accelerated simulation times, while maintaining high accuracy for all cases compared to physics-based PF fracture model. Finally, this work provides a new approach to accelerate a variety of mesh-based engineering multiphysics problems
Quality assessment, including inspecting the images for artifacts, is a critical step during MRI data acquisition to ensure data quality and downstream analysis or interpretation success. This study demonstrates a deep learning model to detect rigid motion in T1-weighted brain images. We leveraged a 2D CNN for three-class classification and tested it on publicly available retrospective and prospective datasets. Grad-CAM heatmaps enabled the identification of failure modes and provided an interpretation of the model's results. The model achieved average precision and recall metrics of 85% and 80% on six motion-simulated retrospective datasets. Additionally, the model's classifications on the prospective dataset showed a strong inverse correlation (-0.84) compared to average edge strength, an image quality metric indicative of motion. This model is part of the ArtifactID tool, aimed at inline automatic detection of Gibbs ringing, wrap-around, and motion artifacts. This tool automates part of the time-consuming QA process and augments expertise on-site, particularly relevant in low-resource settings where local MR knowledge is scarce.
The Evidential regression network (ENet) estimates a continuous target and its predictive uncertainty without costly Bayesian model averaging. However, it is possible that the target is inaccurately predicted due to the gradient shrinkage problem of the original loss function of the ENet, the negative log marginal likelihood (NLL) loss. In this paper, the objective is to improve the prediction accuracy of the ENet while maintaining its efficient uncertainty estimation by resolving the gradient shrinkage problem. A multi-task learning (MTL) framework, referred to as MT-ENet, is proposed to accomplish this aim. In the MTL, we define the Lipschitz modified mean squared error (MSE) loss function as another loss and add it to the existing NLL loss. The Lipschitz modified MSE loss is designed to mitigate the gradient conflict with the NLL loss by dynamically adjusting its Lipschitz constant. By doing so, the Lipschitz MSE loss does not disturb the uncertainty estimation of the NLL loss. The MT-ENet enhances the predictive accuracy of the ENet without losing uncertainty estimation capability on the synthetic dataset and real-world benchmarks, including drug-target affinity (DTA) regression. Furthermore, the MT-ENet shows remarkable calibration and out-of-distribution detection capability on the DTA benchmarks.
We present ResMLP, an architecture built entirely upon multi-layer perceptrons for image classification. It is a simple residual network that alternates (i) a linear layer in which image patches interact, independently and identically across channels, and (ii) a two-layer feed-forward network in which channels interact independently per patch. When trained with a modern training strategy using heavy data-augmentation and optionally distillation, it attains surprisingly good accuracy/complexity trade-offs on ImageNet. We will share our code based on the Timm library and pre-trained models.
Deep learning constitutes a recent, modern technique for image processing and data analysis, with promising results and large potential. As deep learning has been successfully applied in various domains, it has recently entered also the domain of agriculture. In this paper, we perform a survey of 40 research efforts that employ deep learning techniques, applied to various agricultural and food production challenges. We examine the particular agricultural problems under study, the specific models and frameworks employed, the sources, nature and pre-processing of data used, and the overall performance achieved according to the metrics used at each work under study. Moreover, we study comparisons of deep learning with other existing popular techniques, in respect to differences in classification or regression performance. Our findings indicate that deep learning provides high accuracy, outperforming existing commonly used image processing techniques.
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