Many visualizations have been developed for explainable AI (XAI), but they often require further reasoning by users to interpret. We argue that XAI should support diagrammatic and abductive reasoning for the AI to perform hypothesis generation and evaluation to reduce the interpretability gap. We propose Diagrammatization to i) perform Peircean abductive-deductive reasoning, ii) follow domain conventions, and iii) explain with diagrams visually or verbally. We implemented DiagramNet for a clinical application to predict cardiac diagnoses from heart auscultation, and explain with shape-based murmur diagrams. In modeling studies, we found that DiagramNet not only provides faithful murmur shape explanations, but also has better prediction performance than baseline models. We further demonstrate the interpretability and trustworthiness of diagrammatic explanations in a qualitative user study with medical students, showing that clinically-relevant, diagrammatic explanations are preferred over technical saliency map explanations. This work contributes insights into providing domain-conventional abductive explanations for user-centric XAI.
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We provide a new sequent calculus that enjoys syntactic cut-elimination and strongly terminating backward proof search for the intuitionistic Strong L\"ob logic $\sf{iSL}$, an intuitionistic modal logic with a provability interpretation. A novel measure on sequents is used to prove both the termination of the naive backward proof search strategy, and the admissibility of cut in a syntactic and direct way, leading to a straightforward cut-elimination procedure. All proofs have been formalised in the interactive theorem prover Coq.
Deep neural networks have shown remarkable performance when trained on independent and identically distributed data from a fixed set of classes. However, in real-world scenarios, it can be desirable to train models on a continuous stream of data where multiple classification tasks are presented sequentially. This scenario, known as Continual Learning (CL) poses challenges to standard learning algorithms which struggle to maintain knowledge of old tasks while learning new ones. This stability-plasticity dilemma remains central to CL and multiple metrics have been proposed to adequately measure stability and plasticity separately. However, none considers the increasing difficulty of the classification task, which inherently results in performance loss for any model. In that sense, we analyze some limitations of current metrics and identify the presence of setup-induced forgetting. Therefore, we propose new metrics that account for the task's increasing difficulty. Through experiments on benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that our proposed metrics can provide new insights into the stability-plasticity trade-off achieved by models in the continual learning environment.
In this paper, we propose a human trajectory prediction model that combines a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network with an attention mechanism. To do that, we use attention scores to determine which parts of the input data the model should focus on when making predictions. Attention scores are calculated for each input feature, with a higher score indicating the greater significance of that feature in predicting the output. Initially, these scores are determined for the target human position, velocity, and their neighboring individual's positions and velocities. By using attention scores, our model can prioritize the most relevant information in the input data and make more accurate predictions. We extract attention scores from our attention mechanism and integrate them into the trajectory prediction module to predict human future trajectories. To achieve this, we introduce a new neural layer that processes attention scores after extracting them and concatenates them with positional information. We evaluate our approach on the publicly available ETH and UCY datasets and measure its performance using the final displacement error (FDE) and average displacement error (ADE) metrics. We show that our modified algorithm performs better than the Social LSTM in predicting the future trajectory of pedestrians in crowded spaces. Specifically, our model achieves an improvement of 6.2% in ADE and 6.3% in FDE compared to the Social LSTM results in the literature.
We introduce new control-volume finite-element discretization schemes suitable for solving the Stokes problem. Within a common framework, we present different approaches for constructing such schemes. The first and most established strategy employs a non-overlapping partitioning into control volumes. The second represents a new idea by splitting into two sets of control volumes, the first set yielding a partition of the domain and the second containing the remaining overlapping control volumes required for stability. The third represents a hybrid approach where finite volumes are combined with finite elements based on a hierarchical splitting of the ansatz space. All approaches are based on typical finite element function spaces but yield locally mass and momentum conservative discretization schemes that can be interpreted as finite volume schemes. We apply all strategies to the inf-sub stable MINI finite-element pair. Various test cases, including convergence tests and the numerical observation of the boundedness of the number of preconditioned Krylov solver iterations, as well as more complex scenarios of flow around obstacles or through a three-dimensional vessel bifurcation, demonstrate the stability and robustness of the schemes.
Hawkes processes are often applied to model dependence and interaction phenomena in multivariate event data sets, such as neuronal spike trains, social interactions, and financial transactions. In the nonparametric setting, learning the temporal dependence structure of Hawkes processes is generally a computationally expensive task, all the more with Bayesian estimation methods. In particular, for generalised nonlinear Hawkes processes, Monte-Carlo Markov Chain methods applied to compute the doubly intractable posterior distribution are not scalable to high-dimensional processes in practice. Recently, efficient algorithms targeting a mean-field variational approximation of the posterior distribution have been proposed. In this work, we first unify existing variational Bayes approaches under a general nonparametric inference framework, and analyse the asymptotic properties of these methods under easily verifiable conditions on the prior, the variational class, and the nonlinear model. Secondly, we propose a novel sparsity-inducing procedure, and derive an adaptive mean-field variational algorithm for the popular sigmoid Hawkes processes. Our algorithm is parallelisable and therefore computationally efficient in high-dimensional setting. Through an extensive set of numerical simulations, we also demonstrate that our procedure is able to adapt to the dimensionality of the parameter of the Hawkes process, and is partially robust to some type of model mis-specification.
To create effective data visualizations, it helps to represent data using visual features in intuitive ways. When visualization designs match observer expectations, visualizations are easier to interpret. Prior work suggests that several factors influence such expectations. For example, the dark-is-more bias leads observers to infer that darker colors map to larger quantities, and the opaque-is-more bias leads them to infer that regions appearing more opaque (given the background color) map to larger quantities. Previous work suggested that the background color only plays a role if visualizations appear to vary in opacity. The present study challenges this claim. We hypothesized that the background color modulate inferred mappings for colormaps that should not appear to vary in opacity (by previous measures) if the visualization appeared to have a "hole" that revealed the background behind the map (hole hypothesis). We found that spatial aspects of the map contributed to inferred mappings, though the effects were inconsistent with the hole hypothesis. Our work raises new questions about how spatial distributions of data influence color semantics in colormap data visualizations.
We present a framework for approximate Bayesian inference when only a limited number of noisy log-likelihood evaluations can be obtained due to computational constraints, which is becoming increasingly common for applications of complex models. We model the log-likelihood function using a Gaussian process (GP) and the main methodological innovation is to apply this model to emulate the progression that an exact Metropolis-Hastings (MH) sampler would take if it was applicable. Informative log-likelihood evaluation locations are selected using a sequential experimental design strategy until the MH accept/reject decision is done accurately enough according to the GP model. The resulting approximate sampler is conceptually simple and sample-efficient. It is also more robust to violations of GP modelling assumptions compared with earlier, related "Bayesian optimisation-like" methods tailored for Bayesian inference. We discuss some theoretical aspects and various interpretations of the resulting approximate MH sampler, and demonstrate its benefits in the context of Bayesian and generalised Bayesian likelihood-free inference for simulator-based statistical models.
HEP data-processing frameworks are essential ingredients in getting from raw data to physics results. But they are often tricky to use well, and they present a significant learning barrier for the beginning HEP physicist. In addition, existing frameworks typically support rigid, collider-based data models, which do not map well to neutrino-physics experiments like DUNE. Neutrino physicists thus expend significant effort working around framework limitations instead of using a framework that directly supports their needs. Presented here is Meld, a Fermilab R&D project, which intends to address these limitations. By leveraging modern C++ capabilities, state-of-the-art concurrency libraries, and a flexible data model, it is possible for beginning (and seasoned) HEP physicists to execute framework programs easily and efficiently, with minimal coupling to framework-specific constructs. Meld aims to directly support the frameworks needs of neutrino experiments like DUNE as well as the more common collider-based experiments.
The goal of explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is to generate human-interpretable explanations, but there are no computationally precise theories of how humans interpret AI generated explanations. The lack of theory means that validation of XAI must be done empirically, on a case-by-case basis, which prevents systematic theory-building in XAI. We propose a psychological theory of how humans draw conclusions from saliency maps, the most common form of XAI explanation, which for the first time allows for precise prediction of explainee inference conditioned on explanation. Our theory posits that absent explanation humans expect the AI to make similar decisions to themselves, and that they interpret an explanation by comparison to the explanations they themselves would give. Comparison is formalized via Shepard's universal law of generalization in a similarity space, a classic theory from cognitive science. A pre-registered user study on AI image classifications with saliency map explanations demonstrate that our theory quantitatively matches participants' predictions of the AI.
The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.
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