We propose a new method for estimating causal effects in longitudinal/panel data settings that we call generalized difference-in-differences. Our approach unifies two alternative approaches in these settings: ignorability estimators (e.g., synthetic controls) and difference-in-differences (DiD) estimators. We propose a new identifying assumption -- a stable bias assumption -- which generalizes the conditional parallel trends assumption in DiD, leading to the proposed generalized DiD framework. This change gives generalized DiD estimators the flexibility of ignorability estimators while maintaining the robustness to unobserved confounding of DiD. We also show how ignorability and DiD estimators are special cases of generalized DiD. We then propose influence-function based estimators of the observed data functional, allowing the use of double/debiased machine learning for estimation. We also show how generalized DiD easily extends to include clustered treatment assignment and staggered adoption settings, and we discuss how the framework can facilitate estimation of other treatment effects beyond the average treatment effect on the treated. Finally, we provide simulations which show that generalized DiD outperforms ignorability and DiD estimators when their identifying assumptions are not met, while being competitive with these special cases when their identifying assumptions are met.
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Previous approaches to modelling interval-censored data have often relied on assumptions of homogeneity in the sense that the censoring mechanism, the underlying distribution of occurrence times, or both, are assumed to be time-invariant. In this work, we introduce a model which allows for non-homogeneous behaviour in both cases. In particular, we outline a censoring mechanism based on semi-Markov processes in which interval generation is assumed to be time-dependent and we propose a Markov point process model for the underlying occurrence time distribution. We prove the existence of this process and derive the conditional distribution of the occurrence times given the intervals. We provide a framework within which the process can be accurately modelled, and subsequently compare our model to homogeneous approaches by way of a parametric example.
In statistical inference, retrodiction is the act of inferring potential causes in the past based on knowledge of the effects in the present and the dynamics leading to the present. Retrodiction is applicable even when the dynamics is not reversible, and it agrees with the reverse dynamics when it exists, so that retrodiction may be viewed as an extension of inversion, i.e., time-reversal. Recently, an axiomatic definition of retrodiction has been made in a way that is applicable to both classical and quantum probability using ideas from category theory. Almost simultaneously, a framework for information flow in in terms of semicartesian categories has been proposed in the setting of categorical probability theory. Here, we formulate a general definition of retrodiction to add to the information flow axioms in semicartesian categories, thus providing an abstract framework for retrodiction beyond classical and quantum probability theory. More precisely, we extend Bayesian inference, and more generally Jeffrey's probability kinematics, to arbitrary semicartesian categories.
By abstracting over well-known properties of De Bruijn's representation with nameless dummies, we design a new theory of syntax with variable binding and capture-avoiding substitution. We propose it as a simpler alternative to Fiore, Plotkin, and Turi's approach, with which we establish a strong formal link. We also show that our theory easily incorporates simple types and equations between terms.
Human participants play a central role in the development of modern artificial intelligence (AI) technology, in psychological science, and in user research. Recent advances in generative AI have attracted growing interest to the possibility of replacing human participants in these domains with AI surrogates. We survey several such "substitution proposals" to better understand the arguments for and against substituting human participants with modern generative AI. Our scoping review indicates that the recent wave of these proposals is motivated by goals such as reducing the costs of research and development work and increasing the diversity of collected data. However, these proposals ignore and ultimately conflict with foundational values of work with human participants: representation, inclusion, and understanding. This paper critically examines the principles and goals underlying human participation to help chart out paths for future work that truly centers and empowers participants.
In this paper, we develop a class of high-order conservative methods for simulating non-equilibrium radiation diffusion problems. Numerically, this system poses significant challenges due to strong nonlinearity within the stiff source terms and the degeneracy of nonlinear diffusion terms. Explicit methods require impractically small time steps, while implicit methods, which offer stability, come with the challenge to guarantee the convergence of nonlinear iterative solvers. To overcome these challenges, we propose a predictor-corrector approach and design proper implicit-explicit time discretizations. In the predictor step, the system is reformulated into a nonconservative form and linear diffusion terms are introduced as a penalization to mitigate strong nonlinearities. We then employ a Picard iteration to secure convergence in handling the nonlinear aspects. The corrector step guarantees the conservation of total energy, which is vital for accurately simulating the speeds of propagating sharp fronts in this system. For spatial approximations, we utilize local discontinuous Galerkin finite element methods, coupled with positive-preserving and TVB limiters. We validate the orders of accuracy, conservation properties, and suitability of using large time steps for our proposed methods, through numerical experiments conducted on one- and two-dimensional spatial problems. In both homogeneous and heterogeneous non-equilibrium radiation diffusion problems, we attain a time stability condition comparable to that of a fully implicit time discretization. Such an approach is also applicable to many other reaction-diffusion systems.
Physiological fatigue, a state of reduced cognitive and physical performance resulting from prolonged mental or physical exertion, poses significant challenges in various domains, including healthcare, aviation, transportation, and industrial sectors. As the understanding of fatigue's impact on human performance grows, there is a growing interest in developing effective fatigue monitoring techniques. Among these techniques, electroencephalography (EEG) has emerged as a promising tool for objectively assessing physiological fatigue due to its non-invasiveness, high temporal resolution, and sensitivity to neural activity. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the current state of the use of EEG for monitoring physiological fatigue.
Let R_eps denote randomized query complexity for error probability eps, and R:=R_{1/3}. In this work we investigate whether a perfect composition theorem R(f o g^n)=Omega(R(f).R(g)) holds for a relation f in {0,1}^n * S and a total inner function g:{0,1}^m \to {0, 1}. Let D^(prod) denote the maximum distributional query complexity with respect to any product (over variables) distribution. In this work we show the composition theorem R(f o g^n)=Omega(R(f).D^{prod}(g)) up to logarithmic factors. In light of the minimax theorem which states that R(g) is the maximum distributional complexity of g over any distribution, our result makes progress towards answering the composition question. We prove our result by means of a complexity measure R^(prod)_(eps) that we define for total Boolean functions. We show it to be equivalent (up to logarithmic factors) to the sabotage complexity measure RS() defined by Ben-David and Kothari (ICALP 2019): RS(g) = Theta(R^(prod)_(1/3)(g)) (up to log factors). We ask if our bound RS(g) = Omega(D^(prod)(g)) (up to log factors) is tight. We answer this question in the negative, by showing that for the NAND tree function, sabotage complexity is polynomially larger than D^(prod). Our proof yields an alternative and different derivation of the tight lower bound on the bounded error randomized query complexity of the NAND tree function (originally proved by Santha in 1985), which may be of independent interest. Our result gives an explicit polynomial separation between R and D^(prod) which, to our knowledge, was not known prior to our work.
This note shows how to compute, to high relative accuracy under mild assumptions, complex Jacobi rotations for diagonalization of Hermitian matrices of order two, using the correctly rounded functions $\mathtt{cr\_hypot}$ and $\mathtt{cr\_rsqrt}$, proposed for standardization in the C programming language as recommended by the IEEE-754 floating-point standard. The rounding to nearest (ties to even) and the non-stop arithmetic are assumed. The numerical examples compare the observed with theoretical bounds on the relative errors in the rotations' elements, and show that the maximal observed departure of the rotations' determinants from unity is smaller than that of the transformations computed by LAPACK.
In this manuscript we propose and analyze an implicit two-point type method (or inertial method) for obtaining stable approximate solutions to linear ill-posed operator equations. The method is based on the iterated Tikhonov (iT) scheme. We establish convergence for exact data, and stability and semi-convergence for noisy data. Regarding numerical experiments we consider: i) a 2D Inverse Potential Problem, ii) an Image Deblurring Problem; the computational efficiency of the method is compared with standard implementations of the iT method.
In this work, a Generalized Finite Difference (GFD) scheme is presented for effectively computing the numerical solution of a parabolic-elliptic system modelling a bacterial strain with density-suppressed motility. The GFD method is a meshless method known for its simplicity for solving non-linear boundary value problems over irregular geometries. The paper first introduces the basic elements of the GFD method, and then an explicit-implicit scheme is derived. The convergence of the method is proven under a bound for the time step, and an algorithm is provided for its computational implementation. Finally, some examples are considered comparing the results obtained with a regular mesh and an irregular cloud of points.
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