This paper presents non-parametric baseline models for time series forecasting. Unlike classical forecasting models, the proposed approach does not assume any parametric form for the predictive distribution and instead generates predictions by sampling from the empirical distribution according to a tunable strategy. By virtue of this, the model is always able to produce reasonable forecasts (i.e., predictions within the observed data range) without fail unlike classical models that suffer from numerical stability on some data distributions. Moreover, we develop a global version of the proposed method that automatically learns the sampling strategy by exploiting the information across multiple related time series. The empirical evaluation shows that the proposed methods have reasonable and consistent performance across all datasets, proving them to be strong baselines to be considered in one's forecasting toolbox.
We introduce Bellman Conformal Inference (BCI), a framework that wraps around any time series forecasting models and provides approximately calibrated prediction intervals. Unlike existing methods, BCI is able to leverage multi-step ahead forecasts and explicitly optimize the average interval lengths by solving a one-dimensional stochastic control problem (SCP) at each time step. In particular, we use the dynamic programming algorithm to find the optimal policy for the SCP. We prove that BCI achieves long-term coverage under arbitrary distribution shifts and temporal dependence, even with poor multi-step ahead forecasts. We find empirically that BCI avoids uninformative intervals that have infinite lengths and generates substantially shorter prediction intervals in multiple applications when compared with existing methods.
Time Series Supplier Allocation (TSSA) poses a complex NP-hard challenge, aimed at refining future order dispatching strategies to satisfy order demands with maximum supply efficiency fully. Traditionally derived from financial portfolio management, the Black-Litterman (BL) model offers a new perspective for the TSSA scenario by balancing expected returns against insufficient supply risks. However, its application within TSSA is constrained by the reliance on manually constructed perspective matrices and spatio-temporal market dynamics, coupled with the absence of supervisory signals and data unreliability inherent to supplier information. To solve these limitations, we introduce the pioneering Deep Black-Litterman Model (DBLM), which innovatively adapts the BL model from financial roots to supply chain context. Leveraging the Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNS), DBLM automatically generates future perspective matrices for TSSA, by integrating spatio-temporal dependency. Moreover, a novel Spearman rank correlation distinctively supervises our approach to address the lack of supervisory signals, specifically designed to navigate through the complexities of supplier risks and interactions. This is further enhanced by a masking mechanism aimed at counteracting the biases from unreliable data, thereby improving the model's precision and reliability. Extensive experimentation on two datasets unequivocally demonstrates DBLM's enhanced performance in TSSA, setting new standards for the field. Our findings and methodology are made available for community access and further development.
Most transformer-based video encoders are limited to short temporal contexts due to their quadratic complexity. While various attempts have been made to extend this context, this has often come at the cost of both conceptual and computational complexity. We propose to instead re-purpose existing pre-trained video transformers by simply fine-tuning them to attend to memories derived non-parametrically from past activations. By leveraging redundancy reduction, our memory-consolidated vision transformer (MC-ViT) effortlessly extends its context far into the past and exhibits excellent scaling behavior when learning from longer videos. In doing so, MC-ViT sets a new state-of-the-art in long-context video understanding on EgoSchema, Perception Test, and Diving48, outperforming methods that benefit from orders of magnitude more parameters.
Transformer-based models have greatly pushed the boundaries of time series forecasting recently. Existing methods typically encode time series data into $\textit{patches}$ using one or a fixed set of patch lengths. This, however, could result in a lack of ability to capture the variety of intricate temporal dependencies present in real-world multi-periodic time series. In this paper, we propose MultiResFormer, which dynamically models temporal variations by adaptively choosing optimal patch lengths. Concretely, at the beginning of each layer, time series data is encoded into several parallel branches, each using a detected periodicity, before going through the transformer encoder block. We conduct extensive evaluations on long- and short-term forecasting datasets comparing MultiResFormer with state-of-the-art baselines. MultiResFormer outperforms patch-based Transformer baselines on long-term forecasting tasks and also consistently outperforms CNN baselines by a large margin, while using much fewer parameters than these baselines.
We show that offline actor-critic reinforcement learning can scale to large models - such as transformers - and follows similar scaling laws as supervised learning. We find that offline actor-critic algorithms can outperform strong, supervised, behavioral cloning baselines for multi-task training on a large dataset containing both sub-optimal and expert behavior on 132 continuous control tasks. We introduce a Perceiver-based actor-critic model and elucidate the key model features needed to make offline RL work with self- and cross-attention modules. Overall, we find that: i) simple offline actor critic algorithms are a natural choice for gradually moving away from the currently predominant paradigm of behavioral cloning, and ii) via offline RL it is possible to learn multi-task policies that master many domains simultaneously, including real robotics tasks, from sub-optimal demonstrations or self-generated data.
Large-scale pre-trained vision models (PVMs) have shown great potential for adaptability across various downstream vision tasks. However, with state-of-the-art PVMs growing to billions or even trillions of parameters, the standard full fine-tuning paradigm is becoming unsustainable due to high computational and storage demands. In response, researchers are exploring parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT), which seeks to exceed the performance of full fine-tuning with minimal parameter modifications. This survey provides a comprehensive overview and future directions for visual PEFT, offering a systematic review of the latest advancements. First, we provide a formal definition of PEFT and discuss model pre-training methods. We then categorize existing methods into three categories: addition-based, partial-based, and unified-based. Finally, we introduce the commonly used datasets and applications and suggest potential future research challenges. A comprehensive collection of resources is available at //github.com/synbol/Awesome-Parameter-Efficient-Transfer-Learning.
With the rise of powerful pre-trained vision-language models like CLIP, it becomes essential to investigate ways to adapt these models to downstream datasets. A recently proposed method named Context Optimization (CoOp) introduces the concept of prompt learning -- a recent trend in NLP -- to the vision domain for adapting pre-trained vision-language models. Specifically, CoOp turns context words in a prompt into a set of learnable vectors and, with only a few labeled images for learning, can achieve huge improvements over intensively-tuned manual prompts. In our study we identify a critical problem of CoOp: the learned context is not generalizable to wider unseen classes within the same dataset, suggesting that CoOp overfits base classes observed during training. To address the problem, we propose Conditional Context Optimization (CoCoOp), which extends CoOp by further learning a lightweight neural network to generate for each image an input-conditional token (vector). Compared to CoOp's static prompts, our dynamic prompts adapt to each instance and are thus less sensitive to class shift. Extensive experiments show that CoCoOp generalizes much better than CoOp to unseen classes, even showing promising transferability beyond a single dataset; and yields stronger domain generalization performance as well. Code is available at //github.com/KaiyangZhou/CoOp.
In recent years, larger and deeper models are springing up and continuously pushing state-of-the-art (SOTA) results across various fields like natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV). However, despite promising results, it needs to be noted that the computations required by SOTA models have been increased at an exponential rate. Massive computations not only have a surprisingly large carbon footprint but also have negative effects on research inclusiveness and deployment on real-world applications. Green deep learning is an increasingly hot research field that appeals to researchers to pay attention to energy usage and carbon emission during model training and inference. The target is to yield novel results with lightweight and efficient technologies. Many technologies can be used to achieve this goal, like model compression and knowledge distillation. This paper focuses on presenting a systematic review of the development of Green deep learning technologies. We classify these approaches into four categories: (1) compact networks, (2) energy-efficient training strategies, (3) energy-efficient inference approaches, and (4) efficient data usage. For each category, we discuss the progress that has been achieved and the unresolved challenges.
This paper presents a new multi-objective deep reinforcement learning (MODRL) framework based on deep Q-networks. We propose the use of linear and non-linear methods to develop the MODRL framework that includes both single-policy and multi-policy strategies. The experimental results on two benchmark problems including the two-objective deep sea treasure environment and the three-objective mountain car problem indicate that the proposed framework is able to converge to the optimal Pareto solutions effectively. The proposed framework is generic, which allows implementation of different deep reinforcement learning algorithms in different complex environments. This therefore overcomes many difficulties involved with standard multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL) methods existing in the current literature. The framework creates a platform as a testbed environment to develop methods for solving various problems associated with the current MORL. Details of the framework implementation can be referred to //www.deakin.edu.au/~thanhthi/drl.htm.
Recent advancements in deep neural networks for graph-structured data have led to state-of-the-art performance on recommender system benchmarks. However, making these methods practical and scalable to web-scale recommendation tasks with billions of items and hundreds of millions of users remains a challenge. Here we describe a large-scale deep recommendation engine that we developed and deployed at Pinterest. We develop a data-efficient Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) algorithm PinSage, which combines efficient random walks and graph convolutions to generate embeddings of nodes (i.e., items) that incorporate both graph structure as well as node feature information. Compared to prior GCN approaches, we develop a novel method based on highly efficient random walks to structure the convolutions and design a novel training strategy that relies on harder-and-harder training examples to improve robustness and convergence of the model. We also develop an efficient MapReduce model inference algorithm to generate embeddings using a trained model. We deploy PinSage at Pinterest and train it on 7.5 billion examples on a graph with 3 billion nodes representing pins and boards, and 18 billion edges. According to offline metrics, user studies and A/B tests, PinSage generates higher-quality recommendations than comparable deep learning and graph-based alternatives. To our knowledge, this is the largest application of deep graph embeddings to date and paves the way for a new generation of web-scale recommender systems based on graph convolutional architectures.