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The emerging availability of trained machine learning models has put forward the novel concept of Machine Learning Model Market in which one can harness the collective intelligence of multiple well-trained models to improve the performance of the resultant model through one-shot federated learning and ensemble learning in a data-free manner. However, picking the models available in the market for ensemble learning is time-consuming, as using all the models is not always the best approach. It is thus crucial to have an effective ensemble selection strategy that can find a good subset of the base models for the ensemble. Conventional ensemble selection techniques are not applicable, as we do not have access to the local datasets of the parties in the federated learning setting. In this paper, we present a novel Data-Free Diversity-Based method called DeDES to address the ensemble selection problem for models generated by one-shot federated learning in practical applications such as model markets. Experiments showed that our method can achieve both better performance and higher efficiency over 5 datasets and 4 different model structures under the different data-partition strategies.

This work introduces a refinement of the Parsimonious Model for fitting a Gaussian Mixture. The improvement is based on the consideration of groupings of the covariance matrices according to a criterion, such as sharing Principal Directions. This and other similarity criteria that arise from the spectral decomposition of a matrix are the bases of the Parsimonious Model. The classification can be achieved with simple modifications of the CEM (Classification Expectation Maximization) algorithm, using in the M step suitable estimation methods known for parsimonious models. This approach leads to propose Gaussian Mixture Models for model-based clustering and discriminant analysis, in which covariance matrices are clustered according to a parsimonious criterion, creating intermediate steps between the fourteen widely known parsimonious models. The added versatility not only allows us to obtain models with fewer parameters for fitting the data, but also provides greater interpretability. We show its usefulness for model-based clustering and discriminant analysis, providing algorithms to find approximate solutions verifying suitable size, shape and orientation constraints, and applying them to both simulation and real data examples.

A recourse action aims to explain a particular algorithmic decision by showing one specific way in which the instance could be modified to receive an alternate outcome. Existing recourse generation methods often assume that the machine learning model does not change over time. However, this assumption does not always hold in practice because of data distribution shifts, and in this case, the recourse action may become invalid. To redress this shortcoming, we propose the Distributionally Robust Recourse Action (DiRRAc) framework, which generates a recourse action that has a high probability of being valid under a mixture of model shifts. We formulate the robustified recourse setup as a min-max optimization problem, where the max problem is specified by Gelbrich distance over an ambiguity set around the distribution of model parameters. Then we suggest a projected gradient descent algorithm to find a robust recourse according to the min-max objective. We show that our DiRRAc framework can be extended to hedge against the misspecification of the mixture weights. Numerical experiments with both synthetic and three real-world datasets demonstrate the benefits of our proposed framework over state-of-the-art recourse methods.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have great potential to solve many real-world problems, but they usually require an extensive amount of computation and memory. It is of great difficulty to deploy a large DNN model to a single resource-limited device with small memory capacity. Distributed computing is a common approach to reduce single-node memory consumption and to accelerate the inference of DNN models. In this paper, we explore the "within-layer model parallelism", which distributes the inference of each layer into multiple nodes. In this way, the memory requirement can be distributed to many nodes, making it possible to use several edge devices to infer a large DNN model. Due to the dependency within each layer, data communications between nodes during this parallel inference can be a bottleneck when the communication bandwidth is limited. We propose a framework to train DNN models for Distributed Inference with Sparse Communications (DISCO). We convert the problem of selecting which subset of data to transmit between nodes into a model optimization problem, and derive models with both computation and communication reduction when each layer is inferred on multiple nodes. We show the benefit of the DISCO framework on a variety of CV tasks such as image classification, object detection, semantic segmentation, and image super resolution. The corresponding models include important DNN building blocks such as convolutions and transformers. For example, each layer of a ResNet-50 model can be distributively inferred across two nodes with five times less data communications, almost half overall computations and half memory requirement for a single node, and achieve comparable accuracy to the original ResNet-50 model. This also results in 4.7 times overall inference speedup.

In this paper, we consider the task of clustering a set of individual time series while modeling each cluster, that is, model-based time series clustering. The task requires a parametric model with sufficient flexibility to describe the dynamics in various time series. To address this problem, we propose a novel model-based time series clustering method with mixtures of linear Gaussian state space models, which have high flexibility. The proposed method uses a new expectation-maximization algorithm for the mixture model to estimate the model parameters, and determines the number of clusters using the Bayesian information criterion. Experiments on a simulated dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the method in clustering, parameter estimation, and model selection. The method is applied to real datasets commonly used to evaluate time series clustering methods. Results showed that the proposed method produces clustering results that are as accurate or more accurate than those obtained using previous methods.

Age-disaggregated health data is crucial for effective public health planning and monitoring. Monitoring under-five mortality, for example, requires highly detailed age data since the distribution of potential causes of death varies substantially within the first few years of life. Comparative researchers often have to rely on multiple data sources yet, these sources often have ages aggregated at different levels, making it difficult to combine the data into a single, coherent picture. To address this challenge in the context of under-five cause-specific mortality, we propose a Bayesian approach, that calibrates data with different age structures to produce unified and accurate estimates of the standardized age group distributions. We consider age-disaggregated death counts as fully-classified multinomial data and show that by incorporating partially-classified aggregated data, we can construct an improved Bayes estimator of the multinomial parameters under the Kullback-Leibler (KL) loss. We illustrate the method using both synthetic and real data, demonstrating that the proposed method achieves adequate performance in imputing incomplete classification. Finally, we present the results of numerical studies examining the conditions necessary for obtaining improved estimators. These studies provide insights and interpretations that can be used to aid future research and inform guidance for practitioners on appropriate levels of age disaggregation, with the aim of improving the accuracy and reliability of under-five cause-specific mortality estimates.

Many problems arising in control and cybernetics require the determination of a mathematical model of the application. This has often to be performed starting from input-output data, leading to a task known as system identification in the engineering literature. One emerging topic in this field is estimation of networks consisting of several interconnected dynamic systems. We consider the linear setting assuming that system outputs are the result of many correlated inputs, hence making system identification severely ill-conditioned. This is a scenario often encountered when modeling complex cybernetics systems composed by many sub-units with feedback and algebraic loops. We develop a strategy cast in a Bayesian regularization framework where any impulse response is seen as realization of a zero-mean Gaussian process. Any covariance is defined by the so called stable spline kernel which includes information on smooth exponential decay. We design a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme able to reconstruct the impulse responses posterior by efficiently dealing with collinearity. Our scheme relies on a variation of the Gibbs sampling technique: beyond considering blocks forming a partition of the parameter space, some other (overlapping) blocks are also updated on the basis of the level of collinearity of the system inputs. Theoretical properties of the algorithm are studied obtaining its convergence rate. Numerical experiments are included using systems containing hundreds of impulse responses and highly correlated inputs.

Vertical Federated Learning (VFL) enables multiple data owners, each holding a different subset of features about largely overlapping sets of data sample(s), to jointly train a useful global model. Feature selection (FS) is important to VFL. It is still an open research problem as existing FS works designed for VFL either assumes prior knowledge on the number of noisy features or prior knowledge on the post-training threshold of useful features to be selected, making them unsuitable for practical applications. To bridge this gap, we propose the Federated Stochastic Dual-Gate based Feature Selection (FedSDG-FS) approach. It consists of a Gaussian stochastic dual-gate to efficiently approximate the probability of a feature being selected, with privacy protection through Partially Homomorphic Encryption without a trusted third-party. To reduce overhead, we propose a feature importance initialization method based on Gini impurity, which can accomplish its goals with only two parameter transmissions between the server and the clients. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that FedSDG-FS significantly outperforms existing approaches in terms of achieving accurate selection of high-quality features as well as building global models with improved performance.

Causal discovery and causal reasoning are classically treated as separate and consecutive tasks: one first infers the causal graph, and then uses it to estimate causal effects of interventions. However, such a two-stage approach is uneconomical, especially in terms of actively collected interventional data, since the causal query of interest may not require a fully-specified causal model. From a Bayesian perspective, it is also unnatural, since a causal query (e.g., the causal graph or some causal effect) can be viewed as a latent quantity subject to posterior inference -- other unobserved quantities that are not of direct interest (e.g., the full causal model) ought to be marginalized out in this process and contribute to our epistemic uncertainty. In this work, we propose Active Bayesian Causal Inference (ABCI), a fully-Bayesian active learning framework for integrated causal discovery and reasoning, which jointly infers a posterior over causal models and queries of interest. In our approach to ABCI, we focus on the class of causally-sufficient, nonlinear additive noise models, which we model using Gaussian processes. We sequentially design experiments that are maximally informative about our target causal query, collect the corresponding interventional data, and update our beliefs to choose the next experiment. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our approach is more data-efficient than several baselines that only focus on learning the full causal graph. This allows us to accurately learn downstream causal queries from fewer samples while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for the quantities of interest.

Diffusion models are a class of deep generative models that have shown impressive results on various tasks with dense theoretical founding. Although diffusion models have achieved impressive quality and diversity of sample synthesis than other state-of-the-art models, they still suffer from costly sampling procedure and sub-optimal likelihood estimation. Recent studies have shown great enthusiasm on improving the performance of diffusion model. In this article, we present a first comprehensive review of existing variants of the diffusion models. Specifically, we provide a first taxonomy of diffusion models and categorize them variants to three types, namely sampling-acceleration enhancement, likelihood-maximization enhancement and data-generalization enhancement. We also introduce in detail other five generative models (i.e., variational autoencoders, generative adversarial networks, normalizing flow, autoregressive models, and energy-based models), and clarify the connections between diffusion models and these generative models. Then we make a thorough investigation into the applications of diffusion models, including computer vision, natural language processing, waveform signal processing, multi-modal modeling, molecular graph generation, time series modeling, and adversarial purification. Furthermore, we propose new perspectives pertaining to the development of this generative model.