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The cryptocurrency market is volatile, non-stationary and non-continuous. Together with liquid derivatives markets, this poses a unique opportunity to study risk management, especially the hedging of options, in a turbulent market. We study the hedge behaviour and effectiveness for the class of affine jump diffusion models and infinite activity Levy processes. First, market data is calibrated to stochastic volatility inspired (SVI)-implied volatility surfaces to price options. To cover a wide range of market dynamics, we generate Monte Carlo price paths using an SVCJ model (stochastic volatility with correlated jumps), a close-to-actual-market GARCH-filtered kernel density estimation as well as a historical backtest. In all three settings, options are dynamically hedged with Delta, Delta-Gamma, Delta-Vega and Minimum Variance strategies. Including a wide range of market models allows to understand the trade-off in the hedge performance between complete, but overly parsimonious models, and more complex, but incomplete models. The calibration results reveal a strong indication for stochastic volatility, low jump frequency and evidence of infinite activity. Short-dated options are less sensitive to volatility or Gamma hedges. For longer-dated options, tail risk is consistently reduced by multiple-instrument hedges, in particular by employing complete market models with stochastic volatility.

We consider the problem of learning Stochastic Differential Equations of the form $dX_t = f(X_t)dt+\sigma(X_t)dW_t $ from one sample trajectory. This problem is more challenging than learning deterministic dynamical systems because one sample trajectory only provides indirect information on the unknown functions $f$, $\sigma$, and stochastic process $dW_t$ representing the drift, the diffusion, and the stochastic forcing terms, respectively. We propose a method that combines Computational Graph Completion and data adapted kernels learned via a new variant of cross validation. Our approach can be decomposed as follows: (1) Represent the time-increment map $X_t \rightarrow X_{t+dt}$ as a Computational Graph in which $f$, $\sigma$ and $dW_t$ appear as unknown functions and random variables. (2) Complete the graph (approximate unknown functions and random variables) via Maximum a Posteriori Estimation (given the data) with Gaussian Process (GP) priors on the unknown functions. (3) Learn the covariance functions (kernels) of the GP priors from data with randomized cross-validation. Numerical experiments illustrate the efficacy, robustness, and scope of our method.

We propose the tensorizing flow method for estimating high-dimensional probability density functions from the observed data. The method is based on tensor-train and flow-based generative modeling. Our method first efficiently constructs an approximate density in the tensor-train form via solving the tensor cores from a linear system based on the kernel density estimators of low-dimensional marginals. We then train a continuous-time flow model from this tensor-train density to the observed empirical distribution by performing a maximum likelihood estimation. The proposed method combines the optimization-less feature of the tensor-train with the flexibility of the flow-based generative models. Numerical results are included to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method.

The use of counterfactual explanations (CFXs) is an increasingly popular explanation strategy for machine learning models. However, recent studies have shown that these explanations may not be robust to changes in the underlying model (e.g., following retraining), which raises questions about their reliability in real-world applications. Existing attempts towards solving this problem are heuristic, and the robustness to model changes of the resulting CFXs is evaluated with only a small number of retrained models, failing to provide exhaustive guarantees. To remedy this, we propose {\Delta}-robustness, the first notion to formally and deterministically assess the robustness (to model changes) of CFXs for neural networks. We introduce an abstraction framework based on interval neural networks to verify the {\Delta}-robustness of CFXs against a possibly infinite set of changes to the model parameters, i.e., weights and biases. We then demonstrate the utility of this approach in two distinct ways. First, we analyse the {\Delta}-robustness of a number of CFX generation methods from the literature and show that they unanimously host significant deficiencies in this regard. Second, we demonstrate how embedding {\Delta}-robustness within existing methods can provide CFXs which are provably robust.

This paper makes 3 contributions. First, it generalizes the Lindeberg\textendash Feller and Lyapunov Central Limit Theorems to Hilbert Spaces by way of $L^2$. Second, it generalizes these results to spaces in which sample failure and missingness can occur. Finally, it shows that satisfaction of the Lindeberg\textendash Feller and Lyapunov Conditions in such spaces implies the satisfaction of the conditions in the completely observed space, and how this guarantees the consistency of inferences from the partial functional data. These latter two results are especially important given the increasing attention to statistical inference with partially observed functional data. This paper goes beyond previous research by providing simple boundedness conditions which guarantee that \textit{all} inferences, as opposed to some proper subset of them, will be consistently estimated. This is shown primarily by aggregating conditional expectations with respect to the space of missingness patterns. This paper appears to be the first to apply this technique.

We propose a parameter-free model for estimating the price or valuation of financial derivatives like options, forwards and futures using non-supervised learning networks and Monte Carlo. Although some arbitrage-based pricing formula performs greatly on derivatives pricing like Black-Scholes on option pricing, generative model-based Monte Carlo estimation(GAN-MC) will be more accurate and holds more generalizability when lack of training samples on derivatives, underlying asset's price dynamics are unknown or the no-arbitrage conditions can not be solved analytically. We analyze the variance reduction feature of our model and to validate the potential value of the pricing model, we collect real world market derivatives data and show that our model outperforms other arbitrage-based pricing models and non-parametric machine learning models. For comparison, we estimate the price of derivatives using Black-Scholes model, ordinary least squares, radial basis function networks, multilayer perception regression, projection pursuit regression and Monte Carlo only models.

Interpretability is a pressing issue for machine learning. Common approaches to interpretable machine learning constrain interactions between features of the input, rendering the effects of those features on a model's output comprehensible but at the expense of model complexity. We approach interpretability from a new angle: constrain the information about the features without restricting the complexity of the model. Borrowing from information theory, we use the Distributed Information Bottleneck to find optimal compressions of each feature that maximally preserve information about the output. The learned information allocation, by feature and by feature value, provides rich opportunities for interpretation, particularly in problems with many features and complex feature interactions. The central object of analysis is not a single trained model, but rather a spectrum of models serving as approximations that leverage variable amounts of information about the inputs. Information is allocated to features by their relevance to the output, thereby solving the problem of feature selection by constructing a learned continuum of feature inclusion-to-exclusion. The optimal compression of each feature -- at every stage of approximation -- allows fine-grained inspection of the distinctions among feature values that are most impactful for prediction. We develop a framework for extracting insight from the spectrum of approximate models and demonstrate its utility on a range of tabular datasets.

Buildings' segmentation is a fundamental task in the field of earth observation and aerial imagery analysis. Most existing deep learning-based methods in the literature can be applied to fixed or narrow-ranged spatial resolution imagery. In practical scenarios, users deal with a broad spectrum of image resolutions. Thus, a given aerial image often needs to be re-sampled to match the spatial resolution of the dataset used to train the deep learning model, which results in a degradation in segmentation performance. To overcome this, we propose a Scale-invariant Neural Network (Sci-Net) that can segment buildings present in aerial images at different spatial resolutions. Specifically, our approach leverages UNet hierarchical representations and dilated convolutions to extract fine-grained multi-scale representations. Our method significantly outperforms other state of the art models on the Open Cities AI dataset with a steady improvements margin across different resolutions.

Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) plays an important role across a range of scientific disciplines and within areas of strategic importance to society. The MILP problems, however, suffer from combinatorial complexity. Because of integer decision variables, as the problem size increases, the number of possible solutions increases super-linearly thereby leading to a drastic increase in the computational effort. To efficiently solve MILP problems, a "price-based" decomposition and coordination approach is developed to exploit 1. the super-linear reduction of complexity upon the decomposition and 2. the geometric convergence potential inherent to Polyak's stepsizing formula for the fastest coordination possible to obtain near-optimal solutions in a computationally efficient manner. Unlike all previous methods to set stepsizes heuristically by adjusting hyperparameters, the key novel way to obtain stepsizes is purely decision-based: a novel "auxiliary" constraint satisfaction problem is solved, from which the appropriate stepsizes are inferred. Testing results for large-scale Generalized Assignment Problems (GAP) demonstrate that for the majority of instances, certifiably optimal solutions are obtained. For stochastic job-shop scheduling as well as for pharmaceutical scheduling, computational results demonstrate the two orders of magnitude speedup as compared to Branch-and-Cut (B&C). The new method has a major impact on the efficient resolution of complex Mixed-Integer Programming (MIP) problems arising within a variety of scientific fields.

We hypothesize that due to the greedy nature of learning in multi-modal deep neural networks, these models tend to rely on just one modality while under-fitting the other modalities. Such behavior is counter-intuitive and hurts the models' generalization, as we observe empirically. To estimate the model's dependence on each modality, we compute the gain on the accuracy when the model has access to it in addition to another modality. We refer to this gain as the conditional utilization rate. In the experiments, we consistently observe an imbalance in conditional utilization rates between modalities, across multiple tasks and architectures. Since conditional utilization rate cannot be computed efficiently during training, we introduce a proxy for it based on the pace at which the model learns from each modality, which we refer to as the conditional learning speed. We propose an algorithm to balance the conditional learning speeds between modalities during training and demonstrate that it indeed addresses the issue of greedy learning. The proposed algorithm improves the model's generalization on three datasets: Colored MNIST, Princeton ModelNet40, and NVIDIA Dynamic Hand Gesture.