Explainability of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) is critical to various GNN applications but remains an open challenge. A convincing explanation should be both necessary and sufficient simultaneously. However, existing GNN explaining approaches focus on only one of the two aspects, necessity or sufficiency, or a trade-off between the two. To search for the most necessary and sufficient explanation, the Probability of Necessity and Sufficiency (PNS) can be applied since it can mathematically quantify the necessity and sufficiency of an explanation. Nevertheless, the difficulty of obtaining PNS due to non-monotonicity and the challenge of counterfactual estimation limits its wide use. To address the non-identifiability of PNS, we resort to a lower bound of PNS that can be optimized via counterfactual estimation, and propose Necessary and Sufficient Explanation for GNN (NSEG) via optimizing that lower bound. Specifically, we employ nearest neighbor matching to generate counterfactual samples for the features, which is different from the random perturbation. In particular, NSEG combines the edges and node features to generate an explanation, where the common edge explanation is a special case of the combined explanation. Empirical study shows that NSEG achieves excellent performance in generating the most necessary and sufficient explanations among a series of state-of-the-art methods.
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We develop a novel full-Bayesian approach for multiple correlated precision matrices, called multiple Graphical Horseshoe (mGHS). The proposed approach relies on a novel multivariate shrinkage prior based on the Horseshoe prior that borrows strength and shares sparsity patterns across groups, improving posterior edge selection when the precision matrices are similar. On the other hand, there is no loss of performance when the groups are independent. Moreover, mGHS provides a similarity matrix estimate, useful for understanding network similarities across groups. We implement an efficient Metropolis-within-Gibbs for posterior inference; specifically, local variance parameters are updated via a novel and efficient modified rejection sampling algorithm that samples from a three-parameter Gamma distribution. The method scales well with respect to the number of variables and provides one of the fastest full-Bayesian approaches for the estimation of multiple precision matrices. Finally, edge selection is performed with a novel approach based on model cuts. We empirically demonstrate that mGHS outperforms competing approaches through both simulation studies and an application to a bike-sharing dataset.
State-of-the-art parametric and non-parametric style transfer approaches are prone to either distorted local style patterns due to global statistics alignment, or unpleasing artifacts resulting from patch mismatching. In this paper, we study a novel semi-parametric neural style transfer framework that alleviates the deficiency of both parametric and non-parametric stylization. The core idea of our approach is to establish accurate and fine-grained content-style correspondences using graph neural networks (GNNs). To this end, we develop an elaborated GNN model with content and style local patches as the graph vertices. The style transfer procedure is then modeled as the attention-based heterogeneous message passing between the style and content nodes in a learnable manner, leading to adaptive many-to-one style-content correlations at the local patch level. In addition, an elaborated deformable graph convolutional operation is introduced for cross-scale style-content matching. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed semi-parametric image stylization approach yields encouraging results on the challenging style patterns, preserving both global appearance and exquisite details. Furthermore, by controlling the number of edges at the inference stage, the proposed method also triggers novel functionalities like diversified patch-based stylization with a single model.
Electronic health records (EHR) often contain sensitive medical information about individual patients, posing significant limitations to sharing or releasing EHR data for downstream learning and inferential tasks. We use normalizing flows (NF), a family of deep generative models, to estimate the probability density of a dataset with differential privacy (DP) guarantees, from which privacy-preserving synthetic data are generated. We apply the technique to an EHR dataset containing patients with pulmonary hypertension. We assess the learning and inferential utility of the synthetic data by comparing the accuracy in the prediction of the hypertension status and variational posterior distribution of the parameters of a physics-based model. In addition, we use a simulated dataset from a nonlinear model to compare the results from variational inference (VI) based on privacy-preserving synthetic data, and privacy-preserving VI obtained from directly privatizing NFs for VI with DP guarantees given the original non-private dataset. The results suggest that synthetic data generated through differentially private density estimation with NF can yield good utility at a reasonable privacy cost. We also show that VI obtained from differentially private NF based on the free energy bound loss may produce variational approximations with significantly altered correlation structure, and loss formulations based on alternative dissimilarity metrics between two distributions might provide improved results.
Explainable machine learning provides tools to better understand predictive models and their decisions, but many such methods are limited to producing insights with respect to a single class. When generating explanations for several classes, reasoning over them to obtain a complete view may be difficult since they can present competing or contradictory evidence. To address this issue we introduce a novel paradigm of multi-class explanations. We outline the theory behind such techniques and propose a local surrogate model based on multi-output regression trees -- called LIMEtree -- which offers faithful and consistent explanations of multiple classes for individual predictions while being post-hoc, model-agnostic and data-universal. In addition to strong fidelity guarantees, our implementation supports (interactive) customisation of the explanatory insights and delivers a range of diverse explanation types, including counterfactual statements favoured in the literature. We evaluate our algorithm with a collection of quantitative experiments, a qualitative analysis based on explainability desiderata and a preliminary user study on an image classification task, comparing it to LIME. Our contributions demonstrate the benefits of multi-class explanations and wide-ranging advantages of our method across a diverse set scenarios.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have become a proven and indispensable machine learning tool. As a black-box model, it remains difficult to diagnose what aspects of the model's input drive the decisions of a DNN. In countless real-world domains, from legislation and law enforcement to healthcare, such diagnosis is essential to ensure that DNN decisions are driven by aspects appropriate in the context of its use. The development of methods and studies enabling the explanation of a DNN's decisions has thus blossomed into an active, broad area of research. A practitioner wanting to study explainable deep learning may be intimidated by the plethora of orthogonal directions the field has taken. This complexity is further exacerbated by competing definitions of what it means ``to explain'' the actions of a DNN and to evaluate an approach's ``ability to explain''. This article offers a field guide to explore the space of explainable deep learning aimed at those uninitiated in the field. The field guide: i) Introduces three simple dimensions defining the space of foundational methods that contribute to explainable deep learning, ii) discusses the evaluations for model explanations, iii) places explainability in the context of other related deep learning research areas, and iv) finally elaborates on user-oriented explanation designing and potential future directions on explainable deep learning. We hope the guide is used as an easy-to-digest starting point for those just embarking on research in this field.
Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
Predictions obtained by, e.g., artificial neural networks have a high accuracy but humans often perceive the models as black boxes. Insights about the decision making are mostly opaque for humans. Particularly understanding the decision making in highly sensitive areas such as healthcare or fifinance, is of paramount importance. The decision-making behind the black boxes requires it to be more transparent, accountable, and understandable for humans. This survey paper provides essential definitions, an overview of the different principles and methodologies of explainable Supervised Machine Learning (SML). We conduct a state-of-the-art survey that reviews past and recent explainable SML approaches and classifies them according to the introduced definitions. Finally, we illustrate principles by means of an explanatory case study and discuss important future directions.
Since deep neural networks were developed, they have made huge contributions to everyday lives. Machine learning provides more rational advice than humans are capable of in almost every aspect of daily life. However, despite this achievement, the design and training of neural networks are still challenging and unpredictable procedures. To lower the technical thresholds for common users, automated hyper-parameter optimization (HPO) has become a popular topic in both academic and industrial areas. This paper provides a review of the most essential topics on HPO. The first section introduces the key hyper-parameters related to model training and structure, and discusses their importance and methods to define the value range. Then, the research focuses on major optimization algorithms and their applicability, covering their efficiency and accuracy especially for deep learning networks. This study next reviews major services and toolkits for HPO, comparing their support for state-of-the-art searching algorithms, feasibility with major deep learning frameworks, and extensibility for new modules designed by users. The paper concludes with problems that exist when HPO is applied to deep learning, a comparison between optimization algorithms, and prominent approaches for model evaluation with limited computational resources.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a popular class of machine learning models whose major advantage is their ability to incorporate a sparse and discrete dependency structure between data points. Unfortunately, GNNs can only be used when such a graph-structure is available. In practice, however, real-world graphs are often noisy and incomplete or might not be available at all. With this work, we propose to jointly learn the graph structure and the parameters of graph convolutional networks (GCNs) by approximately solving a bilevel program that learns a discrete probability distribution on the edges of the graph. This allows one to apply GCNs not only in scenarios where the given graph is incomplete or corrupted but also in those where a graph is not available. We conduct a series of experiments that analyze the behavior of the proposed method and demonstrate that it outperforms related methods by a significant margin.
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