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Accurate and timely rain prediction is crucial for decision making and is also a challenging task. This paper presents a solution which won the 2 nd prize in the Weather4cast 2022 NeurIPS competition using 3D U-Nets and EarthFormers for 8-hour probabilistic rain prediction based on multi-band satellite images. The spatial context effect of the input satellite image has been deeply explored and optimal context range has been found. Based on the imbalanced rain distribution, we trained multiple models with different loss functions. To further improve the model performance, multi-model ensemble and threshold optimization were used to produce the final probabilistic rain prediction. Experiment results and leaderboard scores demonstrate that optimal spatial context, combined loss function, multi-model ensemble, and threshold optimization all provide modest model gain. A permutation test was used to analyze the effect of each satellite band on rain prediction, and results show that satellite bands signifying cloudtop phase (8.7 um) and cloud-top height (10.8 and 13.4 um) are the best predictors for rain prediction. The source code is available at //github.com/bugsuse/weather4cast-2022-stage2.

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Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) is a weakly supervised learning paradigm that is becoming increasingly popular because it requires less labeling effort than fully supervised methods. This is especially interesting for areas where the creation of large annotated datasets remains challenging, as in medicine. Although recent deep learning MIL approaches have obtained state-of-the-art results, they are fully deterministic and do not provide uncertainty estimations for the predictions. In this work, we introduce the Attention Gaussian Process (AGP) model, a novel probabilistic attention mechanism based on Gaussian Processes for deep MIL. AGP provides accurate bag-level predictions as well as instance-level explainability, and can be trained end-to-end. Moreover, its probabilistic nature guarantees robustness to overfitting on small datasets and uncertainty estimations for the predictions. The latter is especially important in medical applications, where decisions have a direct impact on the patient's health. The proposed model is validated experimentally as follows. First, its behavior is illustrated in two synthetic MIL experiments based on the well-known MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets, respectively. Then, it is evaluated in three different real-world cancer detection experiments. AGP outperforms state-of-the-art MIL approaches, including deterministic deep learning ones. It shows a strong performance even on a small dataset with less than 100 labels and generalizes better than competing methods on an external test set. Moreover, we experimentally show that predictive uncertainty correlates with the risk of wrong predictions, and therefore it is a good indicator of reliability in practice. Our code is publicly available.

Crowdsourcing data from connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) is a cost-efficient way to achieve high-definition maps with up-to-date transient road information. Achieving the map with deterministic latency performance is, however, challenging due to the unpredictable resource competition and distributional resource demands. In this paper, we propose CoMap, a new crowdsourcing high definition (HD) map to minimize the monetary cost of network resource usage while satisfying the percentile requirement of end-to-end latency. We design a novel CROP algorithm to learn the resource demands of CAV offloading, optimize offloading decisions, and proactively allocate temporal network resources in a fully distributed manner. In particular, we create a prediction model to estimate the uncertainty of resource demands based on Bayesian neural networks and develop a utilization balancing scheme to resolve the imbalanced resource utilization in individual infrastructures. We evaluate the performance of CoMap with extensive simulations in an automotive edge computing network simulator. The results show that CoMap reduces up to 80.4% average resource usage as compared to existing solutions.

This paper introduces the SurgT MICCAI 2022 challenge and its first results. There were two purposes for the creation of this challenge: (1) the establishment of the first standardised benchmark for the research community to assess soft-tissue trackers; and (2) to encourage the development of unsupervised deep learning methods, given the lack of annotated data in surgery. A dataset of 157 stereo endoscopic videos from 20 clinical cases, along with stereo camera calibration parameters, are provided. The participants were tasked with the development of algorithms to track a bounding box on each stereo endoscopic video. At the end of the challenge, the developed methods were assessed on a previously hidden test subset. This assessment uses benchmarking metrics that were purposely developed for this challenge and are now available online. The teams were ranked according to their Expected Average Overlap (EAO) score, which is a weighted average of Intersection over Union (IoU) scores. The top team achieved an EAO score of 0.583 in the test subset. Tracking soft-tissue using unsupervised algorithms was found to be achievable. The dataset and benchmarking tool have been successfully created and made publicly available online. This challenge is expected to contribute to the development of autonomous robotic surgery, and other digital surgical technologies.

Kernel methods are an important class of techniques in machine learning. To be effective, good feature maps are crucial for mapping non-linearly separable input data into a higher dimensional (feature) space, thus allowing the data to be linearly separable in feature space. Previous work has shown that quantum feature map design can be automated for a given dataset using NSGA-II, a genetic algorithm, while both minimizing circuit size and maximizing classification accuracy. However, the evaluation of the accuracy achieved by a candidate feature map is costly. In this work, we demonstrate the suitability of kernel-target alignment as a substitute for accuracy in genetic algorithm-based quantum feature map design. Kernel-target alignment is faster to evaluate than accuracy and doesn't require some data points to be reserved for its evaluation. To further accelerate the evaluation of genetic fitness, we provide a method to approximate kernel-target alignment. To improve kernel-target alignment and root mean squared error, the final trainable parameters of the generated circuits are further trained using COBYLA to determine whether a hybrid approach applying conventional circuit parameter training can easily complement the genetic structure optimization approach. A total of eight new approaches are compared to the original across nine varied binary classification problems from the UCI machine learning repository, showing that kernel-target alignment and its approximation produce feature map circuits enabling comparable accuracy to the previous work but with larger margins on training data (in excess of 20\% larger) that improve further with circuit parameter training.

Modelling, forecasting and overall understanding of the dynamics of the power grid and its frequency are essential for the safe operation of existing and future power grids. Much previous research was focused on large continental areas, while small systems, such as islands are less well-studied. These natural island systems are ideal testing environments for microgrid proposals and artificially islanded grid operation. In the present paper, we utilize measurements of the power grid frequency obtained in European islands: the Faroe Islands, Ireland, the Balearic Islands and Iceland and investigate how their frequency can be predicted, compared to the Nordic power system, acting as a reference. The Balearic islands are found to be particularly deterministic and easy to predict in contrast to hard-to-predict Iceland. Furthermore, we show that typically 2-4 weeks of data are needed to improve prediction performance beyond simple benchmarks.

To increase brand awareness, many advertisers conclude contracts with advertising platforms to purchase traffic and then deliver advertisements to target audiences. In a whole delivery period, advertisers usually desire a certain impression count for the ads, and they also expect that the delivery performance is as good as possible (e.g., obtaining high click-through rate). Advertising platforms employ pacing algorithms to satisfy the demands via adjusting the selection probabilities to traffic requests in real-time. However, the delivery procedure is also affected by the strategies from publishers, which cannot be controlled by advertising platforms. Preloading is a widely used strategy for many types of ads (e.g., video ads) to make sure that the response time for displaying after a traffic request is legitimate, which results in delayed impression phenomenon. Traditional pacing algorithms cannot handle the preloading nature well because they rely on immediate feedback signals, and may fail to guarantee the demands from advertisers. In this paper, we focus on a new research problem of impression pacing for preloaded ads, and propose a Reinforcement Learning To Pace framework RLTP. It learns a pacing agent that sequentially produces selection probabilities in the whole delivery period. To jointly optimize the two objectives of impression count and delivery performance, RLTP employs tailored reward estimator to satisfy the guaranteed impression count, penalize the over-delivery and maximize the traffic value. Experiments on large-scale industrial datasets verify that RLTP outperforms baseline pacing algorithms by a large margin. We have deployed the RLTP framework online to our advertising platform, and results show that it achieves significant uplift to core metrics including delivery completion rate and click-through rate.

Model fairness is an essential element for Trustworthy AI. While many techniques for model fairness have been proposed, most of them assume that the training and deployment data distributions are identical, which is often not true in practice. In particular, when the bias between labels and sensitive groups changes, the fairness of the trained model is directly influenced and can worsen. We make two contributions for solving this problem. First, we analytically show that existing in-processing fair algorithms have fundamental limits in accuracy and group fairness. We introduce the notion of correlation shifts, which can explicitly capture the change of the above bias. Second, we propose a novel pre-processing step that samples the input data to reduce correlation shifts and thus enables the in-processing approaches to overcome their limitations. We formulate an optimization problem for adjusting the data ratio among labels and sensitive groups to reflect the shifted correlation. A key benefit of our approach lies in decoupling the roles of pre- and in-processing approaches: correlation adjustment via pre-processing and unfairness mitigation on the processed data via in-processing. Experiments show that our framework effectively improves existing in-processing fair algorithms w.r.t. accuracy and fairness, both on synthetic and real datasets.

The ability to interpret machine learning models has become increasingly important as their usage in data science continues to rise. Most current interpretability methods are optimized to work on either (\textit{i}) a global scale, where the goal is to rank features based on their contributions to overall variation in an observed population, or (\textit{ii}) the local level, which aims to detail on how important a feature is to a particular individual in the dataset. In this work, we present the ``GlObal And Local Score'' (GOALS) operator: a simple \textit{post hoc} approach to simultaneously assess local and global feature variable importance in nonlinear models. Motivated by problems in statistical genetics, we demonstrate our approach using Gaussian process regression where understanding how genetic markers affect trait architecture both among individuals and across populations is of high interest. With detailed simulations and real data analyses, we illustrate the flexible and efficient utility of GOALS over state-of-the-art variable importance strategies.

This paper examines social web content moderation from two key perspectives: automated methods (machine moderators) and human evaluators (human moderators). We conduct a noise audit at an unprecedented scale using nine machine moderators trained on well-known offensive speech data sets evaluated on a corpus sampled from 92 million YouTube comments discussing a multitude of issues relevant to US politics. We introduce a first-of-its-kind data set of vicarious offense. We ask annotators: (1) if they find a given social media post offensive; and (2) how offensive annotators sharing different political beliefs would find the same content. Our experiments with machine moderators reveal that moderation outcomes wildly vary across different machine moderators. Our experiments with human moderators suggest that (1) political leanings considerably affect first-person offense perspective; (2) Republicans are the worst predictors of vicarious offense; (3) predicting vicarious offense for the Republicans is most challenging than predicting vicarious offense for the Independents and the Democrats; and (4) disagreement across political identity groups considerably increases when sensitive issues such as reproductive rights or gun control/rights are discussed. Both experiments suggest that offense, is indeed, highly subjective and raise important questions concerning content moderation practices.

Dynamic programming (DP) solves a variety of structured combinatorial problems by iteratively breaking them down into smaller subproblems. In spite of their versatility, DP algorithms are usually non-differentiable, which hampers their use as a layer in neural networks trained by backpropagation. To address this issue, we propose to smooth the max operator in the dynamic programming recursion, using a strongly convex regularizer. This allows to relax both the optimal value and solution of the original combinatorial problem, and turns a broad class of DP algorithms into differentiable operators. Theoretically, we provide a new probabilistic perspective on backpropagating through these DP operators, and relate them to inference in graphical models. We derive two particular instantiations of our framework, a smoothed Viterbi algorithm for sequence prediction and a smoothed DTW algorithm for time-series alignment. We showcase these instantiations on two structured prediction tasks and on structured and sparse attention for neural machine translation.

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