Solar forecasting from ground-based sky images has shown great promise in reducing the uncertainty in solar power generation. With more and more sky image datasets open sourced in recent years, the development of accurate and reliable deep learning-based solar forecasting methods has seen a huge growth in potential. In this study, we explore three different training strategies for solar forecasting models by leveraging three heterogeneous datasets collected globally with different climate patterns. Specifically, we compare the performance of local models trained individually based on single datasets and global models trained jointly based on the fusion of multiple datasets, and further examine the knowledge transfer from pre-trained solar forecasting models to a new dataset of interest. The results suggest that the local models work well when deployed locally, but significant errors are observed when applied offsite. The global model can adapt well to individual locations at the cost of a potential increase in training efforts. Pre-training models on a large and diversified source dataset and transferring to a target dataset generally achieves superior performance over the other two strategies. With 80% less training data, it can achieve comparable performance as the local baseline trained using the entire dataset.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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Text-guided generative diffusion models unlock powerful image creation and editing tools. While these have been extended to video generation, current approaches that edit the content of existing footage while retaining structure require expensive re-training for every input or rely on error-prone propagation of image edits across frames. In this work, we present a structure and content-guided video diffusion model that edits videos based on visual or textual descriptions of the desired output. Conflicts between user-provided content edits and structure representations occur due to insufficient disentanglement between the two aspects. As a solution, we show that training on monocular depth estimates with varying levels of detail provides control over structure and content fidelity. Our model is trained jointly on images and videos which also exposes explicit control of temporal consistency through a novel guidance method. Our experiments demonstrate a wide variety of successes; fine-grained control over output characteristics, customization based on a few reference images, and a strong user preference towards results by our model.
Probabilistic forecasts are essential for various downstream applications such as business development, traffic planning, and electrical grid balancing. Many of these probabilistic forecasts are performed on time series data that contain calendar-driven periodicities. However, existing probabilistic forecasting methods do not explicitly take these periodicities into account. Therefore, in the present paper, we introduce a deep learning-based method that considers these calendar-driven periodicities explicitly. The present paper, thus, has a twofold contribution: First, we apply statistical methods that use calendar-driven prior knowledge to create rolling statistics and combine them with neural networks to provide better probabilistic forecasts. Second, we benchmark ProbPNN with state-of-the-art benchmarks by comparing the achieved normalised continuous ranked probability score (nCRPS) and normalised Pinball Loss (nPL) on two data sets containing in total more than 1000 time series. The results of the benchmarks show that using statistical forecasting components improves the probabilistic forecast performance and that ProbPNN outperforms other deep learning forecasting methods whilst requiring less computation costs.
Deep generative models have gained popularity in recent years due to their ability to accurately replicate inherent empirical distributions and yield novel samples. In particular, certain advances are proposed wherein the model engenders data examples following specified attributes. Nevertheless, several challenges still exist and are to be overcome, i.e., difficulty in extrapolating out-of-sample data and insufficient learning of disentangled representations. Structural causal models (SCMs), on the other hand, encapsulate the causal factors that govern a generative process and characterize a generative model based on causal relationships, providing crucial insights for addressing the current obstacles in deep generative models. In this paper, we present a comprehensive survey of Causal deep Generative Models (CGMs), which combine SCMs and deep generative models in a way that boosts several trustworthy properties such as robustness, fairness, and interpretability. We provide an overview of the recent advances in CGMs, categorize them based on generative types, and discuss how causality is introduced into the family of deep generative models. We also explore potential avenues for future research in this field.
Over the past few years, the rapid development of deep learning technologies for computer vision has greatly promoted the performance of medical image segmentation (MedISeg). However, the recent MedISeg publications usually focus on presentations of the major contributions (e.g., network architectures, training strategies, and loss functions) while unwittingly ignoring some marginal implementation details (also known as "tricks"), leading to a potential problem of the unfair experimental result comparisons. In this paper, we collect a series of MedISeg tricks for different model implementation phases (i.e., pre-training model, data pre-processing, data augmentation, model implementation, model inference, and result post-processing), and experimentally explore the effectiveness of these tricks on the consistent baseline models. Compared to paper-driven surveys that only blandly focus on the advantages and limitation analyses of segmentation models, our work provides a large number of solid experiments and is more technically operable. With the extensive experimental results on both the representative 2D and 3D medical image datasets, we explicitly clarify the effect of these tricks. Moreover, based on the surveyed tricks, we also open-sourced a strong MedISeg repository, where each of its components has the advantage of plug-and-play. We believe that this milestone work not only completes a comprehensive and complementary survey of the state-of-the-art MedISeg approaches, but also offers a practical guide for addressing the future medical image processing challenges including but not limited to small dataset learning, class imbalance learning, multi-modality learning, and domain adaptation. The code has been released at: //github.com/hust-linyi/MedISeg
The concept of causality plays an important role in human cognition . In the past few decades, causal inference has been well developed in many fields, such as computer science, medicine, economics, and education. With the advancement of deep learning techniques, it has been increasingly used in causal inference against counterfactual data. Typically, deep causal models map the characteristics of covariates to a representation space and then design various objective optimization functions to estimate counterfactual data unbiasedly based on the different optimization methods. This paper focuses on the survey of the deep causal models, and its core contributions are as follows: 1) we provide relevant metrics under multiple treatments and continuous-dose treatment; 2) we incorporate a comprehensive overview of deep causal models from both temporal development and method classification perspectives; 3) we assist a detailed and comprehensive classification and analysis of relevant datasets and source code.
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.
Time Series Classification (TSC) is an important and challenging problem in data mining. With the increase of time series data availability, hundreds of TSC algorithms have been proposed. Among these methods, only a few have considered Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to perform this task. This is surprising as deep learning has seen very successful applications in the last years. DNNs have indeed revolutionized the field of computer vision especially with the advent of novel deeper architectures such as Residual and Convolutional Neural Networks. Apart from images, sequential data such as text and audio can also be processed with DNNs to reach state-of-the-art performance for document classification and speech recognition. In this article, we study the current state-of-the-art performance of deep learning algorithms for TSC by presenting an empirical study of the most recent DNN architectures for TSC. We give an overview of the most successful deep learning applications in various time series domains under a unified taxonomy of DNNs for TSC. We also provide an open source deep learning framework to the TSC community where we implemented each of the compared approaches and evaluated them on a univariate TSC benchmark (the UCR/UEA archive) and 12 multivariate time series datasets. By training 8,730 deep learning models on 97 time series datasets, we propose the most exhaustive study of DNNs for TSC to date.
There is a recent large and growing interest in generative adversarial networks (GANs), which offer powerful features for generative modeling, density estimation, and energy function learning. GANs are difficult to train and evaluate but are capable of creating amazingly realistic, though synthetic, image data. Ideas stemming from GANs such as adversarial losses are creating research opportunities for other challenges such as domain adaptation. In this paper, we look at the field of GANs with emphasis on these areas of emerging research. To provide background for adversarial techniques, we survey the field of GANs, looking at the original formulation, training variants, evaluation methods, and extensions. Then we survey recent work on transfer learning, focusing on comparing different adversarial domain adaptation methods. Finally, we take a look forward to identify open research directions for GANs and domain adaptation, including some promising applications such as sensor-based human behavior modeling.
Multivariate time series forecasting is extensively studied throughout the years with ubiquitous applications in areas such as finance, traffic, environment, etc. Still, concerns have been raised on traditional methods for incapable of modeling complex patterns or dependencies lying in real word data. To address such concerns, various deep learning models, mainly Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based methods, are proposed. Nevertheless, capturing extremely long-term patterns while effectively incorporating information from other variables remains a challenge for time-series forecasting. Furthermore, lack-of-explainability remains one serious drawback for deep neural network models. Inspired by Memory Network proposed for solving the question-answering task, we propose a deep learning based model named Memory Time-series network (MTNet) for time series forecasting. MTNet consists of a large memory component, three separate encoders, and an autoregressive component to train jointly. Additionally, the attention mechanism designed enable MTNet to be highly interpretable. We can easily tell which part of the historic data is referenced the most.
As a new classification platform, deep learning has recently received increasing attention from researchers and has been successfully applied to many domains. In some domains, like bioinformatics and robotics, it is very difficult to construct a large-scale well-annotated dataset due to the expense of data acquisition and costly annotation, which limits its development. Transfer learning relaxes the hypothesis that the training data must be independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) with the test data, which motivates us to use transfer learning to solve the problem of insufficient training data. This survey focuses on reviewing the current researches of transfer learning by using deep neural network and its applications. We defined deep transfer learning, category and review the recent research works based on the techniques used in deep transfer learning.
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