Existing statistical methods can estimate a policy, or a mapping from covariates to decisions, which can then instruct decision makers (e.g., whether to administer hypotension treatment based on covariates blood pressure and heart rate). There is great interest in using such data-driven policies in healthcare. However, it is often important to explain to the healthcare provider, and to the patient, how a new policy differs from the current standard of care. This end is facilitated if one can pinpoint the aspects of the policy (i.e., the parameters for blood pressure and heart rate) that change when moving from the standard of care to the new, suggested policy. To this end, we adapt ideas from Trust Region Policy Optimization (TRPO). In our work, however, unlike in TRPO, the difference between the suggested policy and standard of care is required to be sparse, aiding with interpretability. This yields ``relative sparsity," where, as a function of a tuning parameter, $\lambda$, we can approximately control the number of parameters in our suggested policy that differ from their counterparts in the standard of care (e.g., heart rate only). We propose a criterion for selecting $\lambda$, perform simulations, and illustrate our method with a real, observational healthcare dataset, deriving a policy that is easy to explain in the context of the current standard of care. Our work promotes the adoption of data-driven decision aids, which have great potential to improve health outcomes.
相關內容
We consider a wireless communication system with a passive eavesdropper, in which a transmitter and legitimate receiver generate and use key bits to secure the transmission of their data. These bits are added to and used from a pool of available key bits. In this work, we analyze the reliability in terms of the probability that the budget of available key bits will be exhausted. In addition, we investigate the latency before a transmission can take place. Since security, reliability, and latency are three important metrics for modern communication systems, it is of great interest to jointly analyze them in relation to the system parameters. Interestingly, we show under what conditions the system may remain in an active state indefinitely, i.e., never run out of available secret-key bits. The results presented in this work can be used by system designers to adjust the system parameters in such a way that the requirements of the application in terms of both reliability and latency are met.
Minimax problems have recently attracted a lot of research interests. A few efforts have been made to solve decentralized nonconvex strongly-concave (NCSC) minimax-structured optimization; however, all of them focus on smooth problems with at most a constraint on the maximization variable. In this paper, we make the first attempt on solving composite NCSC minimax problems that can have convex nonsmooth terms on both minimization and maximization variables. Our algorithm is designed based on a novel reformulation of the decentralized minimax problem that introduces a multiplier to absorb the dual consensus constraint. The removal of dual consensus constraint enables the most aggressive (i.e., local maximization instead of a gradient ascent step) dual update that leads to the benefit of taking a larger primal stepsize and better complexity results. In addition, the decoupling of the nonsmoothness and consensus on the dual variable eases the analysis of a decentralized algorithm; thus our reformulation creates a new way for interested researchers to design new (and possibly more efficient) decentralized methods on solving NCSC minimax problems. We show a global convergence result of the proposed algorithm and an iteration complexity result to produce a (near) stationary point of the reformulation. Moreover, a relation is established between the (near) stationarities of the reformulation and the original formulation. With this relation, we show that when the dual regularizer is smooth, our algorithm can have lower complexity results (with reduced dependence on a condition number) than existing ones to produce a near-stationary point of the original formulation. Numerical experiments are conducted on a distributionally robust logistic regression to demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm.
Offline reinforcement learning (RL) methods can generally be categorized into two types: RL-based and Imitation-based. RL-based methods could in principle enjoy out-of-distribution generalization but suffer from erroneous off-policy evaluation. Imitation-based methods avoid off-policy evaluation but are too conservative to surpass the dataset. In this study, we propose an alternative approach, inheriting the training stability of imitation-style methods while still allowing logical out-of-distribution generalization. We decompose the conventional reward-maximizing policy in offline RL into a guide-policy and an execute-policy. During training, the guide-poicy and execute-policy are learned using only data from the dataset, in a supervised and decoupled manner. During evaluation, the guide-policy guides the execute-policy by telling where it should go so that the reward can be maximized, serving as the \textit{Prophet}. By doing so, our algorithm allows \textit{state-compositionality} from the dataset, rather than \textit{action-compositionality} conducted in prior imitation-style methods. We dumb this new approach Policy-guided Offline RL (\texttt{POR}). \texttt{POR} demonstrates the state-of-the-art performance on D4RL, a standard benchmark for offline RL. We also highlight the benefits of \texttt{POR} in terms of improving with supplementary suboptimal data and easily adapting to new tasks by only changing the guide-poicy.
We introduce a model for multi-agent interaction problems to understand how a heterogeneous team of agents should organize its resources to tackle a heterogeneous team of attackers. This model is inspired by how the human immune system tackles a diverse set of pathogens. The key property of this model is "cross-reactivity" which enables a particular defender type to respond strongly to some attackers but weakly to a few different types of attackers. Due to this, the optimal defender distribution that minimizes the harm incurred by attackers is supported on a discrete set. This allows the defender team to allocate resources to a few types and yet tackle a large number of attacker types. We study this model in different settings to characterize a set of guiding principles for control problems with heterogeneous teams of agents, e.g., sensitivity of the harm to sub-optimal defender distributions, teams consisting of a small number of attackers and defenders, estimating and tackling an evolving attacker distribution, and competition between defenders that gives near-optimal behavior using decentralized computation of the control. We also compare this model with reinforcement-learned policies for the defender team.
In this paper we derive sufficient conditions for the convergence of two popular alternating minimisation algorithms for dictionary learning - the Method of Optimal Directions (MOD) and Online Dictionary Learning (ODL), which can also be thought of as approximative K-SVD. We show that given a well-behaved initialisation that is either within distance at most $1/\log(K)$ to the generating dictionary or has a special structure ensuring that each element of the initialisation only points to one generating element, both algorithms will converge with geometric convergence rate to the generating dictionary. This is done even for data models with non-uniform distributions on the supports of the sparse coefficients. These allow the appearance frequency of the dictionary elements to vary heavily and thus model real data more closely.
Probabilities of Causation play a fundamental role in decision making in law, health care and public policy. Nevertheless, their point identification is challenging, requiring strong assumptions such as monotonicity. In the absence of such assumptions, existing work requires multiple observations of datasets that contain the same treatment and outcome variables, in order to establish bounds on these probabilities. However, in many clinical trials and public policy evaluation cases, there exist independent datasets that examine the effect of a different treatment each on the same outcome variable. Here, we outline how to significantly tighten existing bounds on the probabilities of causation, by imposing counterfactual consistency between SCMs constructed from such independent datasets ('causal marginal problem'). Next, we describe a new information theoretic approach on falsification of counterfactual probabilities, using conditional mutual information to quantify counterfactual influence. The latter generalises to arbitrary discrete variables and number of treatments, and renders the causal marginal problem more interpretable. Since the question of 'tight enough' is left to the user, we provide an additional method of inference when the bounds are unsatisfactory: A maximum entropy based method that defines a metric for the space of plausible SCMs and proposes the entropy maximising SCM for inferring counterfactuals in the absence of more information.
We consider a resource-constrained Edge Device (ED) embedded with a small-size ML model (S-ML) for a generic classification application, and an Edge Server (ES) that hosts a large-size ML model (L-ML). Since the inference accuracy of S-ML is lower than that of the L-ML, offloading all the data samples to the ES results in high inference accuracy, but it defeats the purpose of embedding S-ML on the ED and deprives the benefits of reduced latency, bandwidth savings, and energy efficiency of doing local inference. To get the best out of both worlds, i.e., the benefits of doing inference on the ED and the benefits of doing inference on ES, we explore the idea of Hierarchical Inference (HI), wherein S-ML inference is only accepted when it is correct, otherwise the data sample is offloaded for L-ML inference. However, the ideal implementation of HI is infeasible as the correctness of the S-ML inference is not known to the ED. We thus propose an online meta-learning framework to predict the correctness of the S-ML inference. The resulting online learning problem turns out to be a Prediction with Expert Advice (PEA) problem with continuous expert space. We consider the full feedback scenario, where the ED receives feedback on the correctness of the S-ML once it accepts the inference, and the no-local feedback scenario, where the ED does not receive the ground truth for the classification, and propose the HIL-F and HIL-N algorithms and prove a regret bound that is sublinear with the number of data samples. We evaluate and benchmark the performance of the proposed algorithms for image classification applications using four datasets, namely, Imagenette, Imagewoof, MNIST, and CIFAR-10.
Foundation models pretrained on diverse data at scale have demonstrated extraordinary capabilities in a wide range of vision and language tasks. When such models are deployed in real world environments, they inevitably interface with other entities and agents. For example, language models are often used to interact with human beings through dialogue, and visual perception models are used to autonomously navigate neighborhood streets. In response to these developments, new paradigms are emerging for training foundation models to interact with other agents and perform long-term reasoning. These paradigms leverage the existence of ever-larger datasets curated for multimodal, multitask, and generalist interaction. Research at the intersection of foundation models and decision making holds tremendous promise for creating powerful new systems that can interact effectively across a diverse range of applications such as dialogue, autonomous driving, healthcare, education, and robotics. In this manuscript, we examine the scope of foundation models for decision making, and provide conceptual tools and technical background for understanding the problem space and exploring new research directions. We review recent approaches that ground foundation models in practical decision making applications through a variety of methods such as prompting, conditional generative modeling, planning, optimal control, and reinforcement learning, and discuss common challenges and open problems in the field.
Classic algorithms and machine learning systems like neural networks are both abundant in everyday life. While classic computer science algorithms are suitable for precise execution of exactly defined tasks such as finding the shortest path in a large graph, neural networks allow learning from data to predict the most likely answer in more complex tasks such as image classification, which cannot be reduced to an exact algorithm. To get the best of both worlds, this thesis explores combining both concepts leading to more robust, better performing, more interpretable, more computationally efficient, and more data efficient architectures. The thesis formalizes the idea of algorithmic supervision, which allows a neural network to learn from or in conjunction with an algorithm. When integrating an algorithm into a neural architecture, it is important that the algorithm is differentiable such that the architecture can be trained end-to-end and gradients can be propagated back through the algorithm in a meaningful way. To make algorithms differentiable, this thesis proposes a general method for continuously relaxing algorithms by perturbing variables and approximating the expectation value in closed form, i.e., without sampling. In addition, this thesis proposes differentiable algorithms, such as differentiable sorting networks, differentiable renderers, and differentiable logic gate networks. Finally, this thesis presents alternative training strategies for learning with algorithms.
Game theory has by now found numerous applications in various fields, including economics, industry, jurisprudence, and artificial intelligence, where each player only cares about its own interest in a noncooperative or cooperative manner, but without obvious malice to other players. However, in many practical applications, such as poker, chess, evader pursuing, drug interdiction, coast guard, cyber-security, and national defense, players often have apparently adversarial stances, that is, selfish actions of each player inevitably or intentionally inflict loss or wreak havoc on other players. Along this line, this paper provides a systematic survey on three main game models widely employed in adversarial games, i.e., zero-sum normal-form and extensive-form games, Stackelberg (security) games, zero-sum differential games, from an array of perspectives, including basic knowledge of game models, (approximate) equilibrium concepts, problem classifications, research frontiers, (approximate) optimal strategy seeking techniques, prevailing algorithms, and practical applications. Finally, promising future research directions are also discussed for relevant adversarial games.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191