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In this paper, we compare three different model-based risk measures by evaluating their stengths and weaknesses qualitatively and testing them quantitatively on a set of real longitudinal and intersection scenarios. We start with the traditional heuristic Time-To-Collision (TTC), which we extend towards 2D operation and non-crash cases to retrieve the Time-To-Closest-Encounter (TTCE). The second risk measure models position uncertainty with a Gaussian distribution and uses spatial occupancy probabilities for collision risks. We then derive a novel risk measure based on the statistics of sparse critical events and so-called survival conditions. The resulting survival analysis shows to have an earlier detection time of crashes and less false positive detections in near-crash and non-crash cases supported by its solid theoretical grounding. It can be seen as a generalization of TTCE and the Gaussian method which is suitable for the validation of ADAS and AD.

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讓 iOS 8 和 OS X Yosemite 無縫切換的一個新特性。 > Apple products have always been designed to work together beautifully. But now they may really surprise you. With iOS 8 and OS X Yosemite, you’ll be able to do more wonderful things than ever before.

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In many board games and other abstract games, patterns have been used as features that can guide automated game-playing agents. Such patterns or features often represent particular configurations of pieces, empty positions, etc., which may be relevant for a game's strategies. Their use has been particularly prevalent in the game of Go, but also many other games used as benchmarks for AI research. In this paper, we formulate a design and efficient implementation of spatial state-action features for general games. These are patterns that can be trained to incentivise or disincentivise actions based on whether or not they match variables of the state in a local area around action variables. We provide extensive details on several design and implementation choices, with a primary focus on achieving a high degree of generality to support a wide variety of different games using different board geometries or other graphs. Secondly, we propose an efficient approach for evaluating active features for any given set of features. In this approach, we take inspiration from heuristics used in problems such as SAT to optimise the order in which parts of patterns are matched and prune unnecessary evaluations. This approach is defined for a highly general and abstract description of the problem -- phrased as optimising the order in which propositions of formulas in disjunctive normal form are evaluated -- and may therefore also be of interest to other types of problems than board games. An empirical evaluation on 33 distinct games in the Ludii general game system demonstrates the efficiency of this approach in comparison to a naive baseline, as well as a baseline based on prefix trees, and demonstrates that the additional efficiency significantly improves the playing strength of agents using the features to guide search.

Model-based approaches to reinforcement learning (MBRL) exhibit favorable performance in practice, but their theoretical guarantees in large spaces are mostly restricted to the setting when transition model is Gaussian or Lipschitz, and demands a posterior estimate whose representational complexity grows unbounded with time. In this work, we develop a novel MBRL method (i) which relaxes the assumptions on the target transition model to belong to a generic family of mixture models; (ii) is applicable to large-scale training by incorporating a compression step such that the posterior estimate consists of a Bayesian coreset of only statistically significant past state-action pairs; and (iii) exhibits a sublinear Bayesian regret. To achieve these results, we adopt an approach based upon Stein's method, which, under a smoothness condition on the constructed posterior and target, allows distributional distance to be evaluated in closed form as the kernelized Stein discrepancy (KSD). The aforementioned compression step is then computed in terms of greedily retaining only those samples which are more than a certain KSD away from the previous model estimate. Experimentally, we observe that this approach is competitive with several state-of-the-art RL methodologies, and can achieve up-to 50 percent reduction in wall clock time in some continuous control environments.

Controller synthesis is in essence a case of model-based planning for non-deterministic environments in which plans (actually ''strategies'') are meant to preserve system goals indefinitely. In the case of supervisory control environments are specified as the parallel composition of state machines and valid strategies are required to be ''non-blocking'' (i.e., always enabling the environment to reach certain marked states) in addition to safe (i.e., keep the system within a safe zone). Recently, On-the-fly Directed Controller Synthesis techniques were proposed to avoid the exploration of the entire -and exponentially large-environment space, at the cost of non-maximal permissiveness, to either find a strategy or conclude that there is none. The incremental exploration of the plant is currently guided by a domain-independent human-designed heuristic. In this work, we propose a new method for obtaining heuristics based on Reinforcement Learning (RL). The synthesis algorithm is thus framed as an RL task with an unbounded action space and a modified version of DQN is used. With a simple and general set of features that abstracts both states and actions, we show that it is possible to learn heuristics on small versions of a problem that generalize to the larger instances, effectively doing zero-shot policy transfer. Our agents learn from scratch in a highly partially observable RL task and outperform the existing heuristic overall, in instances unseen during training.

Performative prediction, as introduced by Perdomo et al. (2020), is a framework for studying social prediction in which the data distribution itself changes in response to the deployment of a model. Existing work on optimizing accuracy in this setting hinges on two assumptions that are easily violated in practice: that the performative risk is convex over the deployed model, and that the mapping from the model to the data distribution is known to the model designer in advance. In this paper, we initiate the study of tractable performative prediction problems that do not require these assumptions. To tackle this more challenging setting, we develop a two-level zeroth-order optimization algorithm, where one level aims to compute the distribution map, and the other level reparameterizes the performative prediction objective as a function of the induced data distribution. Under mild conditions, this reparameterization allows us to transform the non-convex objective into a convex one and achieve provable regret guarantees. In particular, we provide a regret bound that is sublinear in the total number of performative samples taken and only polynomial in the dimension of the model parameter.

Variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) can provide a wealth of information when applied to complex models. A well-known Achilles' heel of this approach is its computational cost which often renders it unfeasible in practice. An appealing alternative is to analyze instead the sensitivity of a surrogate model with the goal of lowering computational costs while maintaining sufficient accuracy. Should a surrogate be "simple" enough to be amenable to the analytical calculations of its Sobol' indices, the cost of GSA is essentially reduced to the construction of the surrogate. We propose a new class of sparse weight Extreme Learning Machines (SW-ELMs) which, when considered as surrogates in the context of GSA, admit analytical formulas for their Sobol' indices and, unlike the standard ELMs, yield accurate approximations of these indices. The effectiveness of this approach is illustrated through both traditional benchmarks in the field and on a chemical reaction network.

Autonomous driving has achieved a significant milestone in research and development over the last decade. There is increasing interest in the field as the deployment of self-operating vehicles on roads promises safer and more ecologically friendly transportation systems. With the rise of computationally powerful artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, autonomous vehicles can sense their environment with high precision, make safe real-time decisions, and operate more reliably without human interventions. However, intelligent decision-making in autonomous cars is not generally understandable by humans in the current state of the art, and such deficiency hinders this technology from being socially acceptable. Hence, aside from making safe real-time decisions, the AI systems of autonomous vehicles also need to explain how these decisions are constructed in order to be regulatory compliant across many jurisdictions. Our study sheds a comprehensive light on developing explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) approaches for autonomous vehicles. In particular, we make the following contributions. First, we provide a thorough overview of the present gaps with respect to explanations in the state-of-the-art autonomous vehicle industry. We then show the taxonomy of explanations and explanation receivers in this field. Thirdly, we propose a framework for an architecture of end-to-end autonomous driving systems and justify the role of XAI in both debugging and regulating such systems. Finally, as future research directions, we provide a field guide on XAI approaches for autonomous driving that can improve operational safety and transparency towards achieving public approval by regulators, manufacturers, and all engaged stakeholders.

Meta-learning has gained wide popularity as a training framework that is more data-efficient than traditional machine learning methods. However, its generalization ability in complex task distributions, such as multimodal tasks, has not been thoroughly studied. Recently, some studies on multimodality-based meta-learning have emerged. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of the multimodality-based meta-learning landscape in terms of the methodologies and applications. We first formalize the definition of meta-learning and multimodality, along with the research challenges in this growing field, such as how to enrich the input in few-shot or zero-shot scenarios and how to generalize the models to new tasks. We then propose a new taxonomy to systematically discuss typical meta-learning algorithms combined with multimodal tasks. We investigate the contributions of related papers and summarize them by our taxonomy. Finally, we propose potential research directions for this promising field.

Autonomous driving is regarded as one of the most promising remedies to shield human beings from severe crashes. To this end, 3D object detection serves as the core basis of such perception system especially for the sake of path planning, motion prediction, collision avoidance, etc. Generally, stereo or monocular images with corresponding 3D point clouds are already standard layout for 3D object detection, out of which point clouds are increasingly prevalent with accurate depth information being provided. Despite existing efforts, 3D object detection on point clouds is still in its infancy due to high sparseness and irregularity of point clouds by nature, misalignment view between camera view and LiDAR bird's eye of view for modality synergies, occlusions and scale variations at long distances, etc. Recently, profound progress has been made in 3D object detection, with a large body of literature being investigated to address this vision task. As such, we present a comprehensive review of the latest progress in this field covering all the main topics including sensors, fundamentals, and the recent state-of-the-art detection methods with their pros and cons. Furthermore, we introduce metrics and provide quantitative comparisons on popular public datasets. The avenues for future work are going to be judiciously identified after an in-deep analysis of the surveyed works. Finally, we conclude this paper.

The time and effort involved in hand-designing deep neural networks is immense. This has prompted the development of Neural Architecture Search (NAS) techniques to automate this design. However, NAS algorithms tend to be slow and expensive; they need to train vast numbers of candidate networks to inform the search process. This could be alleviated if we could partially predict a network's trained accuracy from its initial state. In this work, we examine the overlap of activations between datapoints in untrained networks and motivate how this can give a measure which is usefully indicative of a network's trained performance. We incorporate this measure into a simple algorithm that allows us to search for powerful networks without any training in a matter of seconds on a single GPU, and verify its effectiveness on NAS-Bench-101, NAS-Bench-201, NATS-Bench, and Network Design Spaces. Our approach can be readily combined with more expensive search methods; we examine a simple adaptation of regularised evolutionary search. Code for reproducing our experiments is available at //github.com/BayesWatch/nas-without-training.

Bid optimization for online advertising from single advertiser's perspective has been thoroughly investigated in both academic research and industrial practice. However, existing work typically assume competitors do not change their bids, i.e., the wining price is fixed, leading to poor performance of the derived solution. Although a few studies use multi-agent reinforcement learning to set up a cooperative game, they still suffer the following drawbacks: (1) They fail to avoid collusion solutions where all the advertisers involved in an auction collude to bid an extremely low price on purpose. (2) Previous works cannot well handle the underlying complex bidding environment, leading to poor model convergence. This problem could be amplified when handling multiple objectives of advertisers which are practical demands but not considered by previous work. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-objective cooperative bid optimization formulation called Multi-Agent Cooperative bidding Games (MACG). MACG sets up a carefully designed multi-objective optimization framework where different objectives of advertisers are incorporated. A global objective to maximize the overall profit of all advertisements is added in order to encourage better cooperation and also to protect self-bidding advertisers. To avoid collusion, we also introduce an extra platform revenue constraint. We analyze the optimal functional form of the bidding formula theoretically and design a policy network accordingly to generate auction-level bids. Then we design an efficient multi-agent evolutionary strategy for model optimization. Offline experiments and online A/B tests conducted on the Taobao platform indicate both single advertiser's objective and global profit have been significantly improved compared to state-of-art methods.

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