A model of interacting agents, following plausible behavioral rules into a world where the Covid-19 epidemic is affecting the actions of everyone. The model works with (i) infected agents categorized as symptomatic or asymptomatic and (ii) the places of contagion specified in a detailed way. The infection transmission is related to three factors: the characteristics of both the infected person and the susceptible one, plus those of the space in which contact occurs. The model includes the structural data of Piedmont, an Italian region, but we can easily calibrate it for other areas. The micro-based structure of the model allows factual, counterfactual, and conditional simulations to investigate both the spontaneous or controlled development of the epidemic. The model is generative of complex epidemic dynamics emerging from the consequences of agents' actions and interactions, with high variability in outcomes and stunning realistic reproduction of the successive contagion waves in the reference region. There is also an inverse generative side of the model, coming from the idea of using genetic algorithms to construct a meta-agent to optimize the vaccine distribution. This agent takes into account groups' characteristics -- by age, fragility, work conditions -- to minimize the number of symptomatic people.
We present extensive empirical evidence showing that current Bayesian simulation-based inference algorithms are inadequate for the falsificationist methodology of scientific inquiry. Our results collected through months of experimental computations show that all benchmarked algorithms -- (S)NPE, (S)NRE, SNL and variants of ABC -- may produce overconfident posterior approximations, which makes them demonstrably unreliable and dangerous if one's scientific goal is to constrain parameters of interest. We believe that failing to address this issue will lead to a well-founded trust crisis in simulation-based inference. For this reason, we argue that research efforts should now consider theoretical and methodological developments of conservative approximate inference algorithms and present research directions towards this objective. In this regard, we show empirical evidence that ensembles are consistently more reliable.
Communications standards are designed via committees of humans holding repeated meetings over months or even years until consensus is achieved. This includes decisions regarding the modulation and coding schemes to be supported over an air interface. We propose a way to "automate" the selection of the set of modulation and coding schemes to be supported over a given air interface and thereby streamline both the standards design process and the ease of extending the standard to support new modulation schemes applicable to new higher-level applications and services. Our scheme involves machine learning, whereby a constructor entity submits proposals to an evaluator entity, which returns a score for the proposal. The constructor employs reinforcement learning to iterate on its submitted proposals until a score is achieved that was previously agreed upon by both constructor and evaluator to be indicative of satisfying the required design criteria (including performance metrics for transmissions over the interface).
The outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic of the new COVID-19 disease (COVID-19 for short) demands empowering existing medical, economic, and social emergency backend systems with data analytics capabilities. An impediment in taking advantages of data analytics in these systems is the lack of a unified framework or reference model. Ontologies are highlighted as a promising solution to bridge this gap by providing a formal representation of COVID-19 concepts such as symptoms, infections rate, contact tracing, and drug modelling. Ontology-based solutions enable the integration of diverse data sources that leads to a better understanding of pandemic data, management of smart lockdowns by identifying pandemic hotspots, and knowledge-driven inference, reasoning, and recommendations to tackle surrounding issues.
Modern reinforcement learning (RL) commonly engages practical problems with large state spaces, where function approximation must be deployed to approximate either the value function or the policy. While recent progresses in RL theory address a rich set of RL problems with general function approximation, such successes are mostly restricted to the single-agent setting. It remains elusive how to extend these results to multi-agent RL, especially due to the new challenges arising from its game-theoretical nature. This paper considers two-player zero-sum Markov Games (MGs). We propose a new algorithm that can provably find the Nash equilibrium policy using a polynomial number of samples, for any MG with low multi-agent Bellman-Eluder dimension -- a new complexity measure adapted from its single-agent version (Jin et al., 2021). A key component of our new algorithm is the exploiter, which facilitates the learning of the main player by deliberately exploiting her weakness. Our theoretical framework is generic, which applies to a wide range of models including but not limited to tabular MGs, MGs with linear or kernel function approximation, and MGs with rich observations.
Seamlessly interacting with humans or robots is hard because these agents are non-stationary. They update their policy in response to the ego agent's behavior, and the ego agent must anticipate these changes to co-adapt. Inspired by humans, we recognize that robots do not need to explicitly model every low-level action another agent will make; instead, we can capture the latent strategy of other agents through high-level representations. We propose a reinforcement learning-based framework for learning latent representations of an agent's policy, where the ego agent identifies the relationship between its behavior and the other agent's future strategy. The ego agent then leverages these latent dynamics to influence the other agent, purposely guiding them towards policies suitable for co-adaptation. Across several simulated domains and a real-world air hockey game, our approach outperforms the alternatives and learns to influence the other agent.
Machine Learning models become increasingly proficient in complex tasks. However, even for experts in the field, it can be difficult to understand what the model learned. This hampers trust and acceptance, and it obstructs the possibility to correct the model. There is therefore a need for transparency of machine learning models. The development of transparent classification models has received much attention, but there are few developments for achieving transparent Reinforcement Learning (RL) models. In this study we propose a method that enables a RL agent to explain its behavior in terms of the expected consequences of state transitions and outcomes. First, we define a translation of states and actions to a description that is easier to understand for human users. Second, we developed a procedure that enables the agent to obtain the consequences of a single action, as well as its entire policy. The method calculates contrasts between the consequences of a policy derived from a user query, and of the learned policy of the agent. Third, a format for generating explanations was constructed. A pilot survey study was conducted to explore preferences of users for different explanation properties. Results indicate that human users tend to favor explanations about policy rather than about single actions.
Machine learning algorithms have found several applications in the field of robotics and control systems. The control systems community has started to show interest towards several machine learning algorithms from the sub-domains such as supervised learning, imitation learning and reinforcement learning to achieve autonomous control and intelligent decision making. Amongst many complex control problems, stable bipedal walking has been the most challenging problem. In this paper, we present an architecture to design and simulate a planar bipedal walking robot(BWR) using a realistic robotics simulator, Gazebo. The robot demonstrates successful walking behaviour by learning through several of its trial and errors, without any prior knowledge of itself or the world dynamics. The autonomous walking of the BWR is achieved using reinforcement learning algorithm called Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient(DDPG). DDPG is one of the algorithms for learning controls in continuous action spaces. After training the model in simulation, it was observed that, with a proper shaped reward function, the robot achieved faster walking or even rendered a running gait with an average speed of 0.83 m/s. The gait pattern of the bipedal walker was compared with the actual human walking pattern. The results show that the bipedal walking pattern had similar characteristics to that of a human walking pattern.
A variety of machine learning models have been proposed to assess the performance of players in professional sports. However, they have only a limited ability to model how player performance depends on the game context. This paper proposes a new approach to capturing game context: we apply Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to learn an action-value Q function from 3M play-by-play events in the National Hockey League (NHL). The neural network representation integrates both continuous context signals and game history, using a possession-based LSTM. The learned Q-function is used to value players' actions under different game contexts. To assess a player's overall performance, we introduce a novel Game Impact Metric (GIM) that aggregates the values of the player's actions. Empirical Evaluation shows GIM is consistent throughout a play season, and correlates highly with standard success measures and future salary.
This paper introduces a novel neural network-based reinforcement learning approach for robot gaze control. Our approach enables a robot to learn and to adapt its gaze control strategy for human-robot interaction neither with the use of external sensors nor with human supervision. The robot learns to focus its attention onto groups of people from its own audio-visual experiences, independently of the number of people, of their positions and of their physical appearances. In particular, we use a recurrent neural network architecture in combination with Q-learning to find an optimal action-selection policy; we pre-train the network using a simulated environment that mimics realistic scenarios that involve speaking/silent participants, thus avoiding the need of tedious sessions of a robot interacting with people. Our experimental evaluation suggests that the proposed method is robust against parameter estimation, i.e. the parameter values yielded by the method do not have a decisive impact on the performance. The best results are obtained when both audio and visual information is jointly used. Experiments with the Nao robot indicate that our framework is a step forward towards the autonomous learning of socially acceptable gaze behavior.
We consider the multi-agent reinforcement learning setting with imperfect information in which each agent is trying to maximize its own utility. The reward function depends on the hidden state (or goal) of both agents, so the agents must infer the other players' hidden goals from their observed behavior in order to solve the tasks. We propose a new approach for learning in these domains: Self Other-Modeling (SOM), in which an agent uses its own policy to predict the other agent's actions and update its belief of their hidden state in an online manner. We evaluate this approach on three different tasks and show that the agents are able to learn better policies using their estimate of the other players' hidden states, in both cooperative and adversarial settings.