This paper addresses the question of how much to bid to maximize the profit when trading in two electricity markets: the hourly Day-Ahead Auction and the quarter-hourly Intraday Auction. For optimal coordinated bidding many price scenarios are examined, the own non-linear market impact is estimated by considering empirical supply and demand curves, and a number of trading strategies is used. Additionally, we provide theoretical results for risk neutral agents. The application study is conducted using the German market data, but the presented methods can be easily utilized with other two consecutive auctions. This paper contributes to the existing literature by evaluating the costs of electricity trading, i.e. the price impact and the transaction costs. The empirical results for the German EPEX market show that it is far more profitable to minimize the price impact rather than maximize the arbitrage.
We introduce a new distortion measure for point processes called functional-covering distortion. It is inspired by intensity theory and is related to both the covering of point processes and logarithmic loss distortion. We obtain the distortion-rate function with feedforward under this distortion measure for a large class of point processes. For Poisson processes, the rate-distortion function is obtained under a general condition called constrained functional-covering distortion, of which both covering and functional-covering are special cases. Also for Poisson processes, we characterize the rate-distortion region for a two-encoder CEO problem and show that feedforward does not enlarge this region.
Specifications of complex, large scale, computer software and hardware systems can be radically simplified by using simple maps from input sequences to output values. These "state machine maps" provide an alternative representation of classical Moore type state machines. Composition of state machine maps corresponds to state machine products and can be used to specify essentially any type of interconnection as well as parallel and distributed computation. State machine maps can also specify abstract properties of systems and are significantly more concise and scalable than traditional representations of automata. Examples included here include specifications of producer/consumer software, network distributed consensus, real-time digital circuits, and operating system scheduling. The motivation for this work comes from experience designing and developing operating systems and real-time software where weak methods for understanding and exploring designs is a well known handicap. The methods introduced here are based on ordinary discrete mathematics, primitive recursive functions and deterministic state machines and are intended, initially, to aid the intuition and understanding of the system developers. Staying strictly within the boundaries of classical deterministic state machines anchors the methods to the algebraic structures of automata and semigroups, obviates any need for axiomatic deduction systems, "formal methods", or extensions to the model, and makes the specifications more faithful to engineering practice. While state machine maps are obvious representations of state machines, the techniques introduced here for defining and composing them are novel.
Emerging distributed cloud architectures, e.g., fog and mobile edge computing, are playing an increasingly important role in the efficient delivery of real-time stream-processing applications such as augmented reality, multiplayer gaming, and industrial automation. While such applications require processed streams to be shared and simultaneously consumed by multiple users/devices, existing technologies lack efficient mechanisms to deal with their inherent multicast nature, leading to unnecessary traffic redundancy and network congestion. In this paper, we establish a unified framework for distributed cloud network control with generalized (mixed-cast) traffic flows that allows optimizing the distributed execution of the required packet processing, forwarding, and replication operations. We first characterize the enlarged multicast network stability region under the new control framework (with respect to its unicast counterpart). We then design a novel queuing system that allows scheduling data packets according to their current destination sets, and leverage Lyapunov drift-plus-penalty theory to develop the first fully decentralized, throughput- and cost-optimal algorithm for multicast cloud network flow control. Numerical experiments validate analytical results and demonstrate the performance gain of the proposed design over existing cloud network control techniques.
Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 1559 was recently implemented to transform Ethereum's transaction fee market. EIP-1559 utilizes an algorithmic update rule with a constant learning rate to estimate a base fee. The base fee reflects prevailing network conditions and hence provides a more reliable oracle for current gas prices. Using on-chain data from the period after its launch, we evaluate the impact of EIP-1559 on the user experience and market performance. Our empirical findings suggest that although EIP-1559 achieves its goals on average, short-term behavior is marked by intense, chaotic oscillations in block sizes (as predicted by our recent theoretical dynamical system analysis [1]) and slow adjustments during periods of demand bursts (e.g., NFT drops). Both phenomena lead to unwanted inter-block variability in mining rewards. To address this issue, we propose an alternative base fee adjustment rule in which the learning rate varies according to an additive increase, multiplicative decrease (AIMD) update scheme. Our simulations show that the latter robustly outperforms the EIP-1559 protocol under various demand scenarios. These results provide evidence that variable learning rate mechanisms may constitute a promising alternative to the default EIP-1559-based format and contribute to the ongoing discussion on the design of more efficient transaction fee markets.
How to recover a probability measure with sparse support from particular moments? This problem has been the focus of research in theoretical computer science and neural computing. However, there is no polynomial-time algorithm for the recovery. The best algorithm for the recovery requires $O(2^{\text{poly}(1/\epsilon)})$ for $\epsilon$-accurate recovery. We propose the first poly-time recovery method from carefully designed moments that only requires $O(\log(1/\epsilon)/\epsilon^2)$ computations for an $\epsilon$-accurate recovery. This method relies on the recovery of a planted two-layer neural network with two-dimensional inputs, a finite width, and zero-one activation. For such networks, we establish the first global convergence of gradient descent and demonstrate its application in sparse measure recovery.
Refractive freeform components are becoming increasingly relevant for generating controlled patterns of light, because of their capability to spatially-modulate optical signals with high efficiency and low background. However, the use of these devices is still limited by difficulties in manufacturing macroscopic elements with complex, 3-dimensional (3D) surface reliefs. Here, 3D-printed and stretchable magic windows generating light patterns by refraction are introduced. The shape and, consequently, the light texture achieved can be changed through controlled device strain. Cryptographic magic windows are demonstrated through exemplary light patterns, including micro-QR-codes, that are correctly projected and recognized upon strain gating while remaining cryptic for as-produced devices. The light pattern of micro-QR-codes can also be projected by two coupled magic windows, with one of them acting as the decryption key. Such novel, freeform elements with 3D shape and tailored functionalities is relevant for applications in illumination design, smart labels, anti-counterfeiting systems, and cryptographic communication.
Most existing works of polar codes focus on the analysis of block error probability. However, in many scenarios, bit error probability is also important for evaluating the performance of channel codes. In this paper, we establish a new framework to analyze the bit error probability of polar codes. Specifically, by revisiting the error event of bit-channel, we first introduce the conditional bit error probability as a metric to evaluate the reliability of bit-channel for both systematic and non-systematic polar codes. Guided by the concept of polar subcode, we then derive an upper bound on the conditional bit error probability of each bit-channel, and accordingly, an upper bound on the bit error probability of polar codes. Based on these, two types of construction metrics aiming at minimizing the bit error probability of polar codes are proposed, which are of linear computational complexity and explicit forms. Simulation results show that the polar codes constructed by the proposed methods can outperform those constructed by the conventional methods.
Alerts are crucial for requesting prompt human intervention upon cloud anomalies. The quality of alerts significantly affects the cloud reliability and the cloud provider's business revenue. In practice, we observe on-call engineers being hindered from quickly locating and fixing faulty cloud services because of the vast existence of misleading, non-informative, non-actionable alerts. We call the ineffectiveness of alerts "anti-patterns of alerts". To better understand the anti-patterns of alerts and provide actionable measures to mitigate anti-patterns, in this paper, we conduct the first empirical study on the practices of mitigating anti-patterns of alerts in an industrial cloud system. We study the alert strategies and the alert processing procedure at Huawei Cloud, a leading cloud provider. Our study combines the quantitative analysis of millions of alerts in two years and a survey with eighteen experienced engineers. As a result, we summarized four individual anti-patterns and two collective anti-patterns of alerts. We also summarize four current reactions to mitigate the anti-patterns of alerts, and the general preventative guidelines for the configuration of alert strategy. Lastly, we propose to explore the automatic evaluation of the Quality of Alerts (QoA), including the indicativeness, precision, and handleability of alerts, as a future research direction that assists in the automatic detection of alerts' anti-patterns. The findings of our study are valuable for optimizing cloud monitoring systems and improving the reliability of cloud services.
Deep Learning algorithms have achieved the state-of-the-art performance for Image Classification and have been used even in security-critical applications, such as biometric recognition systems and self-driving cars. However, recent works have shown those algorithms, which can even surpass the human capabilities, are vulnerable to adversarial examples. In Computer Vision, adversarial examples are images containing subtle perturbations generated by malicious optimization algorithms in order to fool classifiers. As an attempt to mitigate these vulnerabilities, numerous countermeasures have been constantly proposed in literature. Nevertheless, devising an efficient defense mechanism has proven to be a difficult task, since many approaches have already shown to be ineffective to adaptive attackers. Thus, this self-containing paper aims to provide all readerships with a review of the latest research progress on Adversarial Machine Learning in Image Classification, however with a defender's perspective. Here, novel taxonomies for categorizing adversarial attacks and defenses are introduced and discussions about the existence of adversarial examples are provided. Further, in contrast to exisiting surveys, it is also given relevant guidance that should be taken into consideration by researchers when devising and evaluating defenses. Finally, based on the reviewed literature, it is discussed some promising paths for future research.
Modern neural network training relies heavily on data augmentation for improved generalization. After the initial success of label-preserving augmentations, there has been a recent surge of interest in label-perturbing approaches, which combine features and labels across training samples to smooth the learned decision surface. In this paper, we propose a new augmentation method that leverages the first and second moments extracted and re-injected by feature normalization. We replace the moments of the learned features of one training image by those of another, and also interpolate the target labels. As our approach is fast, operates entirely in feature space, and mixes different signals than prior methods, one can effectively combine it with existing augmentation methods. We demonstrate its efficacy across benchmark data sets in computer vision, speech, and natural language processing, where it consistently improves the generalization performance of highly competitive baseline networks.