Post-click conversion, as a strong signal indicating the user preference, is salutary for building recommender systems. However, accurately estimating the post-click conversion rate (CVR) is challenging due to the selection bias, i.e., the observed clicked events usually happen on users' preferred items. Currently, most existing methods utilize counterfactual learning to debias recommender systems. Among them, the doubly robust (DR) estimator has achieved competitive performance by combining the error imputation based (EIB) estimator and the inverse propensity score (IPS) estimator in a doubly robust way. However, inaccurate error imputation may result in its higher variance than the IPS estimator. Worse still, existing methods typically use simple model-agnostic methods to estimate the imputation error, which are not sufficient to approximate the dynamically changing model-correlated target (i.e., the gradient direction of the prediction model). To solve these problems, we first derive the bias and variance of the DR estimator. Based on it, a more robust doubly robust (MRDR) estimator has been proposed to further reduce its variance while retaining its double robustness. Moreover, we propose a novel double learning approach for the MRDR estimator, which can convert the error imputation into the general CVR estimation. Besides, we empirically verify that the proposed learning scheme can further eliminate the high variance problem of the imputation learning. To evaluate its effectiveness, extensive experiments are conducted on a semi-synthetic dataset and two real-world datasets. The results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach over the state-of-the-art methods. The code is available at //github.com/guosyjlu/MRDR-DL.
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Covariance estimation for matrix-valued data has received an increasing interest in applications. Unlike previous works that rely heavily on matrix normal distribution assumption and the requirement of fixed matrix size, we propose a class of distribution-free regularized covariance estimation methods for high-dimensional matrix data under a separability condition and a bandable covariance structure. Under these conditions, the original covariance matrix is decomposed into a Kronecker product of two bandable small covariance matrices representing the variability over row and column directions. We formulate a unified framework for estimating bandable covariance, and introduce an efficient algorithm based on rank one unconstrained Kronecker product approximation. The convergence rates of the proposed estimators are established, and the derived minimax lower bound shows our proposed estimator is rate-optimal under certain divergence regimes of matrix size. We further introduce a class of robust covariance estimators and provide theoretical guarantees to deal with heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate the superior finite-sample performance of our methods using simulations and real applications from a gridded temperature anomalies dataset and a S&P 500 stock data analysis.
Binary pointwise labels (aka implicit feedback) are heavily leveraged by deep learning based recommendation algorithms nowadays. In this paper we discuss the limited expressiveness of these labels may fail to accommodate varying degrees of user preference, and thus lead to conflicts during model training, which we call annotation bias. To solve this issue, we find the soft-labeling property of pairwise labels could be utilized to alleviate the bias of pointwise labels. To this end, we propose a momentum contrast framework (MP2) that combines pointwise and pairwise learning for recommendation. MP2 has a three-tower network structure: one user network and two item networks. The two item networks are used for computing pointwise and pairwise loss respectively. To alleviate the influence of the annotation bias, we perform a momentum update to ensure a consistent item representation. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method against state-of-the-art recommendation algorithms.
Evaluation of keyword spotting (KWS) systems that detect keywords in speech is a challenging task under realistic privacy constraints. The KWS is designed to only collect data when the keyword is present, limiting the availability of hard samples that may contain false negatives, and preventing direct estimation of model recall from production data. Alternatively, complementary data collected from other sources may not be fully representative of the real application. In this work, we propose an evaluation technique which we call AB/BA analysis. Our framework evaluates a candidate KWS model B against a baseline model A, using cross-dataset offline decoding for relative recall estimation, without requiring negative examples. Moreover, we propose a formulation with assumptions that allow estimation of relative false positive rate between models with low variance even when the number of false positives is small. Finally, we propose to leverage machine-generated soft labels, in a technique we call Semi-Supervised AB/BA analysis, that improves the analysis time, privacy, and cost. Experiments with both simulation and real data show that AB/BA analysis is successful at measuring recall improvement in conjunction with the trade-off in relative false positive rate.
We study the performance of a phase-noise impaired double reconfigurable intelligent surface (RIS)-aided multiuser (MU) multiple-input single-output (MISO) system under spatial correlation at both RISs and base-station (BS). The downlink achievable rate is derived in closed-form under maximum ratio transmission (MRT) precoding. In addition, we obtain the optimal phase-shift design at both RISs in closed-form for the considered channel and phase-noise models. Numerical results validate the analytical expressions, and highlight the effects of different system parameters on the achievable rate. Our analysis shows that phase-noise can severely degrade the performance when users do not have direct links to both RISs, and can only be served via the double-reflection link. Also, we show that high spatial correlation at RISs is essential for high achievable rates.
Recently, federated learning has emerged as a promising approach for training a global model using data from multiple organizations without leaking their raw data. Nevertheless, directly applying federated learning to real-world tasks faces two challenges: (1) heterogeneity in the data among different organizations; and (2) data noises inside individual organizations. In this paper, we propose a general framework to solve the above two challenges simultaneously. Specifically, we propose using distributionally robust optimization to mitigate the negative effects caused by data heterogeneity paradigm to sample clients based on a learnable distribution at each iteration. Additionally, we observe that this optimization paradigm is easily affected by data noises inside local clients, which has a significant performance degradation in terms of global model prediction accuracy. To solve this problem, we propose to incorporate mixup techniques into the local training process of federated learning. We further provide comprehensive theoretical analysis including robustness analysis, convergence analysis, and generalization ability. Furthermore, we conduct empirical studies across different drug discovery tasks, such as ADMET property prediction and drug-target affinity prediction.
Policy gradient (PG) estimation becomes a challenge when we are not allowed to sample with the target policy but only have access to a dataset generated by some unknown behavior policy. Conventional methods for off-policy PG estimation often suffer from either significant bias or exponentially large variance. In this paper, we propose the double Fitted PG estimation (FPG) algorithm. FPG can work with an arbitrary policy parameterization, assuming access to a Bellman-complete value function class. In the case of linear value function approximation, we provide a tight finite-sample upper bound on policy gradient estimation error, that is governed by the amount of distribution mismatch measured in feature space. We also establish the asymptotic normality of FPG estimation error with a precise covariance characterization, which is further shown to be statistically optimal with a matching Cramer-Rao lower bound. Empirically, we evaluate the performance of FPG on both policy gradient estimation and policy optimization, using either softmax tabular or ReLU policy networks. Under various metrics, our results show that FPG significantly outperforms existing off-policy PG estimation methods based on importance sampling and variance reduction techniques.
The inverse probability (IPW) and doubly robust (DR) estimators are often used to estimate the average causal effect (ATE), but are vulnerable to outliers. The IPW/DR median can be used for outlier-resistant estimation of the ATE, but the outlier resistance of the median is limited and it is not resistant enough for heavy contamination. We propose extensions of the IPW/DR estimators with density power weighting, which can eliminate the influence of outliers almost completely. The outlier resistance of the proposed estimators is evaluated through the unbiasedness of the estimating equations. Unlike the median-based methods, our estimators are resistant to outliers even under heavy contamination. Interestingly, the naive extension of the DR estimator requires bias correction to keep the double robustness even under the most tractable form of contamination. In addition, the proposed estimators are found to be highly resistant to outliers in more difficult settings where the contamination ratio depends on the covariates. The outlier resistance of our estimators from the viewpoint of the influence function is also favorable. Our theoretical results are verified via Monte Carlo simulations and real data analysis. The proposed methods were found to have more outlier resistance than the median-based methods and estimated the potential mean with a smaller error than the median-based methods.
With the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources, distributed optimization algorithms have attracted significant attention for power systems applications due to their potential for superior scalability, privacy, and robustness to a single point-of-failure. The Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) is a popular distributed optimization algorithm; however, its convergence performance is highly dependent on the selection of penalty parameters, which are usually chosen heuristically. In this work, we use reinforcement learning (RL) to develop an adaptive penalty parameter selection policy for the AC optimal power flow (ACOPF) problem solved via ADMM with the goal of minimizing the number of iterations until convergence. We train our RL policy using deep Q-learning, and show that this policy can result in significantly accelerated convergence (up to a 59% reduction in the number of iterations compared to existing, curvature-informed penalty parameter selection methods). Furthermore, we show that our RL policy demonstrates promise for generalizability, performing well under unseen loading schemes as well as under unseen losses of lines and generators (up to a 50% reduction in iterations). This work thus provides a proof-of-concept for using RL for parameter selection in ADMM for power systems applications.
Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time from observational data is relevant for many applications (e.g., personalized medicine). Yet, state-of-the-art methods build upon simple long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, thus rendering inferences for complex, long-range dependencies challenging. In this paper, we develop a novel Causal Transformer for estimating counterfactual outcomes over time. Our model is specifically designed to capture complex, long-range dependencies among time-varying confounders. For this, we combine three transformer subnetworks with separate inputs for time-varying covariates, previous treatments, and previous outcomes into a joint network with in-between cross-attentions. We further develop a custom, end-to-end training procedure for our Causal Transformer. Specifically, we propose a novel counterfactual domain confusion loss to address confounding bias: it aims to learn adversarial balanced representations, so that they are predictive of the next outcome but non-predictive of the current treatment assignment. We evaluate our Causal Transformer based on synthetic and real-world datasets, where it achieves superior performance over current baselines. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work proposing transformer-based architecture for estimating counterfactual outcomes from longitudinal data.
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