Obtaining accurate probabilistic forecasts is an important operational challenge in many applications, perhaps most obviously in energy management, climate forecasting, supply chain planning, and resource allocation. In many of these applications, there is a natural hierarchical structure over the forecasted quantities; and forecasting systems that adhere to this hierarchical structure are said to be coherent. Furthermore, operational planning benefits from accuracy at all levels of the aggregation hierarchy. Building accurate and coherent forecasting systems, however, is challenging: classic multivariate time series tools and neural network methods are still being adapted for this purpose. In this paper, we augment an MQForecaster neural network architecture with a novel deep Gaussian factor forecasting model that achieves coherence by construction, yielding a method we call the Deep Coherent Factor Model Neural Network (DeepCoFactor) model. DeepCoFactor generates samples that can be differentiated with respect to model parameters, allowing optimization on various sample-based learning objectives that align with the forecasting system's goals, including quantile loss and the scaled Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). In a comparison to state-of-the-art coherent forecasting methods, DeepCoFactor achieves significant improvements in scaled CRPS forecast accuracy, with gains between 4.16 and 54.40%, as measured on three publicly available hierarchical forecasting datasets.
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Networking：IFIP International Conferences on Networking。
Explanation：國際網絡會議。
Publisher：IFIP。
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In the logic programming paradigm, a program is defined by a set of methods, each of which can be executed when specific conditions are met during the current state of an execution. The semantics of these programs can be elegantly represented using sequent calculi, in which each method is linked to an inference rule. In this context, proof search mirrors the program's execution. Previous works introduced a framework in which the process of constructing proof nets is employed to model executions, as opposed to the traditional approach of proof search in sequent calculus. This paper further extends this investigation by focussing on the pure multiplicative fragment of this framework. We demonstrate, providing practical examples, the capability to define logic programming methods with context-sensitive behaviors solely through specific resource-preserving and context-free operations, corresponding to certain generalized multiplicative connectives explored in existing literature. We show how some of these methods, although still multiplicative, escape the purely multiplicative fragment of Linear Logic (MLL).
Kernel Stein discrepancies (KSDs) measure the quality of a distributional approximation and can be computed even when the target density has an intractable normalizing constant. Notable applications include the diagnosis of approximate MCMC samplers and goodness-of-fit tests for unnormalized statistical models. The present work analyzes the convergence control properties of KSDs. We first show that standard KSDs used for weak convergence control fail to control moment convergence. To address this limitation, we next provide sufficient conditions under which alternative diffusion KSDs control both moment and weak convergence. As an immediate consequence we develop, for each $q > 0$, the first KSDs known to exactly characterize $q$-Wasserstein convergence.
Online linear programming (OLP) has gained significant attention from both researchers and practitioners due to its extensive applications, such as online auction, network revenue management and advertising. Existing OLP algorithms fall into two categories: LP-based algorithms and LP-free algorithms. The former one typically guarantees better performance, even offering a constant regret, but requires solving a large number of LPs, which could be computationally expensive. In contrast, LP-free algorithm only requires first-order computations but induces a worse performance, lacking a constant regret bound. In this work, we study the case where the inputs are drawn from an unknown finite-support distribution, and bridge the gap between these two extremes by proposing an algorithm that achieves a constant regret while solving LPs only $O(\log\log T)$ times over the time horizon $T$. Moreover, when we are allowed to solve LPs only $M$ times, we propose an algorithm that can guarantee an $O\left(T^{(1/2+\epsilon)^{M-1}}\right)$ regret. Furthermore, when the arrival probabilities are known at the beginning, our algorithm can guarantee a constant regret by solving LPs $O(\log\log T)$ times, and an $O\left(T^{(1/2+\epsilon)^{M}}\right)$ regret by solving LPs only $M$ times. Numerical experiments are conducted to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithms.
We consider the problem of a designer who wants to allocate resources to representatives, that then distribute the resources they receive among the individuals they represent. Motivated by the way Feeding America, one of the largest U.S. charities, allocates donations to food banks, which then further distribute the donations to food-insecure individuals, we focus on mechanisms that use artificial currencies. We compare auctions through the lens of the Price of Anarchy, with respect to three canonical welfare objectives: utilitarian social welfare (sum of individuals' utilities), Nash social welfare (product of individuals' utilities), and egalitarian social welfare (minimum of individuals' utilities). We prove strong lower bounds on the Price of Anarchy of all auctions that allocate each item to the highest bidder, subject to a mild technical constraint; this includes Feeding America's current auction, the First-Price auction. In sharp contrast, our main result shows that adapting the classic Trading Post mechanism of Shapley and Shubik to this setting, and coupled with Feeding America's choice of budget rule (each representative gets an amount of artificial currency equal to the number of individuals it represents), achieves a small Price of Anarchy for all generalized $p$-mean objectives simultaneously. Our bound on the Price of Anarchy of the Trading Post mechanism depends on $\ell$: the product of the rank and the ``incoherence'' of the underlying valuation matrix, which together capture a notion of how ``spread out'' the values of a matrix are. This notion has been extremely influential in the matrix completion literature, and, to the best of our knowledge, has never been used in auction theory prior to our work. Perhaps surprisingly, we prove that the dependence on $\ell$ is necessary: the Price of Anarchy of the Trading Post mechanism is $\Omega(\sqrt{\ell})$.
This manuscript portrays optimization as a process. In many practical applications the environment is so complex that it is infeasible to lay out a comprehensive theoretical model and use classical algorithmic theory and mathematical optimization. It is necessary as well as beneficial to take a robust approach, by applying an optimization method that learns as one goes along, learning from experience as more aspects of the problem are observed. This view of optimization as a process has become prominent in varied fields and has led to some spectacular success in modeling and systems that are now part of our daily lives.
Sequential recommendation aims to leverage users' historical behaviors to predict their next interaction. Existing works have not yet addressed two main challenges in sequential recommendation. First, user behaviors in their rich historical sequences are often implicit and noisy preference signals, they cannot sufficiently reflect users' actual preferences. In addition, users' dynamic preferences often change rapidly over time, and hence it is difficult to capture user patterns in their historical sequences. In this work, we propose a graph neural network model called SURGE (short for SeqUential Recommendation with Graph neural nEtworks) to address these two issues. Specifically, SURGE integrates different types of preferences in long-term user behaviors into clusters in the graph by re-constructing loose item sequences into tight item-item interest graphs based on metric learning. This helps explicitly distinguish users' core interests, by forming dense clusters in the interest graph. Then, we perform cluster-aware and query-aware graph convolutional propagation and graph pooling on the constructed graph. It dynamically fuses and extracts users' current activated core interests from noisy user behavior sequences. We conduct extensive experiments on both public and proprietary industrial datasets. Experimental results demonstrate significant performance gains of our proposed method compared to state-of-the-art methods. Further studies on sequence length confirm that our method can model long behavioral sequences effectively and efficiently.
Triple extraction is an essential task in information extraction for natural language processing and knowledge graph construction. In this paper, we revisit the end-to-end triple extraction task for sequence generation. Since generative triple extraction may struggle to capture long-term dependencies and generate unfaithful triples, we introduce a novel model, contrastive triple extraction with a generative transformer. Specifically, we introduce a single shared transformer module for encoder-decoder-based generation. To generate faithful results, we propose a novel triplet contrastive training object. Moreover, we introduce two mechanisms to further improve model performance (i.e., batch-wise dynamic attention-masking and triple-wise calibration). Experimental results on three datasets (i.e., NYT, WebNLG, and MIE) show that our approach achieves better performance than that of baselines.
It is important to detect anomalous inputs when deploying machine learning systems. The use of larger and more complex inputs in deep learning magnifies the difficulty of distinguishing between anomalous and in-distribution examples. At the same time, diverse image and text data are available in enormous quantities. We propose leveraging these data to improve deep anomaly detection by training anomaly detectors against an auxiliary dataset of outliers, an approach we call Outlier Exposure (OE). This enables anomaly detectors to generalize and detect unseen anomalies. In extensive experiments on natural language processing and small- and large-scale vision tasks, we find that Outlier Exposure significantly improves detection performance. We also observe that cutting-edge generative models trained on CIFAR-10 may assign higher likelihoods to SVHN images than to CIFAR-10 images; we use OE to mitigate this issue. We also analyze the flexibility and robustness of Outlier Exposure, and identify characteristics of the auxiliary dataset that improve performance.
Aspect based sentiment analysis (ABSA) can provide more detailed information than general sentiment analysis, because it aims to predict the sentiment polarities of the given aspects or entities in text. We summarize previous approaches into two subtasks: aspect-category sentiment analysis (ACSA) and aspect-term sentiment analysis (ATSA). Most previous approaches employ long short-term memory and attention mechanisms to predict the sentiment polarity of the concerned targets, which are often complicated and need more training time. We propose a model based on convolutional neural networks and gating mechanisms, which is more accurate and efficient. First, the novel Gated Tanh-ReLU Units can selectively output the sentiment features according to the given aspect or entity. The architecture is much simpler than attention layer used in the existing models. Second, the computations of our model could be easily parallelized during training, because convolutional layers do not have time dependency as in LSTM layers, and gating units also work independently. The experiments on SemEval datasets demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our models.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been found to be vulnerable to adversarial examples resulting from adding small-magnitude perturbations to inputs. Such adversarial examples can mislead DNNs to produce adversary-selected results. Different attack strategies have been proposed to generate adversarial examples, but how to produce them with high perceptual quality and more efficiently requires more research efforts. In this paper, we propose AdvGAN to generate adversarial examples with generative adversarial networks (GANs), which can learn and approximate the distribution of original instances. For AdvGAN, once the generator is trained, it can generate adversarial perturbations efficiently for any instance, so as to potentially accelerate adversarial training as defenses. We apply AdvGAN in both semi-whitebox and black-box attack settings. In semi-whitebox attacks, there is no need to access the original target model after the generator is trained, in contrast to traditional white-box attacks. In black-box attacks, we dynamically train a distilled model for the black-box model and optimize the generator accordingly. Adversarial examples generated by AdvGAN on different target models have high attack success rate under state-of-the-art defenses compared to other attacks. Our attack has placed the first with 92.76% accuracy on a public MNIST black-box attack challenge.
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