Predicting the conditional evolution of Volterra processes with stochastic volatility is a crucial challenge in mathematical finance. While deep neural network models offer promise in approximating the conditional law of such processes, their effectiveness is hindered by the curse of dimensionality caused by the infinite dimensionality and non-smooth nature of these problems. To address this, we propose a two-step solution. Firstly, we develop a stable dimension reduction technique, projecting the law of a reasonably broad class of Volterra process onto a low-dimensional statistical manifold of non-positive sectional curvature. Next, we introduce a sequentially deep learning model tailored to the manifold's geometry, which we show can approximate the projected conditional law of the Volterra process. Our model leverages an auxiliary hypernetwork to dynamically update its internal parameters, allowing it to encode non-stationary dynamics of the Volterra process, and it can be interpreted as a gating mechanism in a mixture of expert models where each expert is specialized at a specific point in time. Our hypernetwork further allows us to achieve approximation rates that would seemingly only be possible with very large networks.
相關內容
We propose a topological mapping and localization system able to operate on real human colonoscopies, despite significant shape and illumination changes. The map is a graph where each node codes a colon location by a set of real images, while edges represent traversability between nodes. For close-in-time images, where scene changes are minor, place recognition can be successfully managed with the recent transformers-based local feature matching algorithms. However, under long-term changes -- such as different colonoscopies of the same patient -- feature-based matching fails. To address this, we train on real colonoscopies a deep global descriptor achieving high recall with significant changes in the scene. The addition of a Bayesian filter boosts the accuracy of long-term place recognition, enabling relocalization in a previously built map. Our experiments show that ColonMapper is able to autonomously build a map and localize against it in two important use cases: localization within the same colonoscopy or within different colonoscopies of the same patient. Code: //github.com/jmorlana/ColonMapper.
Several new geometric quantile-based measures for multivariate dispersion, skewness, kurtosis, and spherical asymmetry are defined. These measures differ from existing measures, which use volumes and are easy to calculate. Some theoretical justification is given, followed by experiments illustrating that they are reasonable measures of these distributional characteristics and computing confidence regions with the desired coverage.
The novelty of the current work is precisely to propose a statistical procedure to combine estimates of the modal parameters provided by any set of Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) algorithms so as to avoid preference for a particular one and also to derive an approximate joint probability distribution of the modal parameters, from which engineering statistics of interest such as mean value and variance are readily provided. The effectiveness of the proposed strategy is assessed considering measured data from an actual centrifugal compressor. The statistics obtained for both forward and backward modal parameters are finally compared against modal parameters identified during standard stability verification testing (SVT) of centrifugal compressors prior to shipment, using classical Experimental Modal Analysis (EMA) algorithms. The current work demonstrates that combination of OMA algorithms can provide quite accurate estimates for both the modal parameters and the associated uncertainties with low computational costs.
We prove the convergence of a damped Newton's method for the nonlinear system resulting from a discretization of the second boundary value problem for the Monge-Ampere equation. The boundary condition is enforced through the use of the notion of asymptotic cone. The differential operator is discretized based on a discrete analogue of the subdifferential.
One of the most promising applications of machine learning (ML) in computational physics is to accelerate the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs). The key objective of ML-based PDE solvers is to output a sufficiently accurate solution faster than standard numerical methods, which are used as a baseline comparison. We first perform a systematic review of the ML-for-PDE solving literature. Of articles that use ML to solve a fluid-related PDE and claim to outperform a standard numerical method, we determine that 79% (60/76) compare to a weak baseline. Second, we find evidence that reporting biases, especially outcome reporting bias and publication bias, are widespread. We conclude that ML-for-PDE solving research is overoptimistic: weak baselines lead to overly positive results, while reporting biases lead to underreporting of negative results. To a large extent, these issues appear to be caused by factors similar to those of past reproducibility crises: researcher degrees of freedom and a bias towards positive results. We call for bottom-up cultural changes to minimize biased reporting as well as top-down structural reforms intended to reduce perverse incentives for doing so.
In the finite difference approximation of the fractional Laplacian the stiffness matrix is typically dense and needs to be approximated numerically. The effect of the accuracy in approximating the stiffness matrix on the accuracy in the whole computation is analyzed and shown to be significant. Four such approximations are discussed. While they are shown to work well with the recently developed grid-over finite difference method (GoFD) for the numerical solution of boundary value problems of the fractional Laplacian, they differ in accuracy, economics to compute, performance of preconditioning, and asymptotic decay away from the diagonal line. In addition, two preconditioners based on sparse and circulant matrices are discussed for the iterative solution of linear systems associated with the stiffness matrix. Numerical results in two and three dimensions are presented.
Mediation analyses allow researchers to quantify the effect of an exposure variable on an outcome variable through a mediator variable. If a binary mediator variable is misclassified, the resulting analysis can be severely biased. Misclassification is especially difficult to deal with when it is differential and when there are no gold standard labels available. Previous work has addressed this problem using a sensitivity analysis framework or by assuming that misclassification rates are known. We leverage a variable related to the misclassification mechanism to recover unbiased parameter estimates without using gold standard labels. The proposed methods require the reasonable assumption that the sum of the sensitivity and specificity is greater than 1. Three correction methods are presented: (1) an ordinary least squares correction for Normal outcome models, (2) a multi-step predictive value weighting method, and (3) a seamless expectation-maximization algorithm. We apply our misclassification correction strategies to investigate the mediating role of gestational hypertension on the association between maternal age and pre-term birth.
Statistical learning under distribution shift is challenging when neither prior knowledge nor fully accessible data from the target distribution is available. Distributionally robust learning (DRL) aims to control the worst-case statistical performance within an uncertainty set of candidate distributions, but how to properly specify the set remains challenging. To enable distributional robustness without being overly conservative, in this paper, we propose a shape-constrained approach to DRL, which incorporates prior information about the way in which the unknown target distribution differs from its estimate. More specifically, we assume the unknown density ratio between the target distribution and its estimate is isotonic with respect to some partial order. At the population level, we provide a solution to the shape-constrained optimization problem that does not involve the isotonic constraint. At the sample level, we provide consistency results for an empirical estimator of the target in a range of different settings. Empirical studies on both synthetic and real data examples demonstrate the improved accuracy of the proposed shape-constrained approach.
We consider a non-linear Bayesian data assimilation model for the periodic two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations with initial condition modelled by a Gaussian process prior. We show that if the system is updated with sufficiently many discrete noisy measurements of the velocity field, then the posterior distribution eventually concentrates near the ground truth solution of the time evolution equation, and in particular that the initial condition is recovered consistently by the posterior mean vector field. We further show that the convergence rate can in general not be faster than inverse logarithmic in sample size, but describe specific conditions on the initial conditions when faster rates are possible. In the proofs we provide an explicit quantitative estimate for backward uniqueness of solutions of the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations.
A number of recent studies have proposed that linear representations are appropriate for solving nonlinear dynamical systems with quantum computers, which fundamentally act linearly on a wave function in a Hilbert space. Linear representations, such as the Koopman representation and Koopman von Neumann mechanics, have regained attention from the dynamical-systems research community. Here, we aim to present a unified theoretical framework, currently missing in the literature, with which one can compare and relate existing methods, their conceptual basis, and their representations. We also aim to show that, despite the fact that quantum simulation of nonlinear classical systems may be possible with such linear representations, a necessary projection into a feasible finite-dimensional space will in practice eventually induce numerical artifacts which can be hard to eliminate or even control. As a result, a practical, reliable and accurate way to use quantum computation for solving general nonlinear dynamical systems is still an open problem.
小貼士
登錄享
相關主題
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191